Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 8
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 8 of the NFL season brings a full slate of action with no teams on a bye, no teams in London, and just one Monday Night game. That gives us 13 games on DraftKings and 14 (including Sunday Night Football) on FanDuel to work with on the main slate. Despite the large number of games, the lines are in a compact range, with every game on the slate carrying a total between 41 and 49 points. Week 7 was about as devastating a week as I can remember for in-game injuries, and the result is a large number of value plays for Week 8, particularly at the WR position. Be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information for the latest details as inactives hit in case there are any surprises. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 8)
Nixing the Denver QB in GPPs?
The tight grouping of game totals for this slate is creating a dynamic across all positions where value plays are standing out much more than the players in the high-total games; that’s because no game is carrying a much higher total than any other on this slate. Currently, the QB showing the highest pOWN% on DraftKings (and the 2nd-highest pOWN% on FanDuel) is Denver’s Bo Nix, who has yet to throw for more than 250 yards or 2 passing touchdowns in his NFL career.
As an 11-point favorite leading the team with the 4th-fewest passing yards per game this season facing a Carolina defense allowing the most rushing yards per game, Nix seems more like a good value play for cash games than a QB who will be pushed to put up a tournament-winning score on Sunday. If I’m looking in the value price range for a QB this weekend I’ll take some chances on Jameis Winston facing a Ravens pass defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Winston may be a threat to turn the ball over at any time, but he is $400 cheaper than Nix on DraftKings and seeing just 3.75 pOWN%, and he has a number of value-priced pass catchers he can be paired with in a stack.
Moving up the price range, another QB I’ll be interested in for tournaments is Kirk Cousins playing a Tampa Bay pass defense that is allowing the 4th-most passing yards per game and just allowed Cousins to throw for 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns 3 weeks ago. Cousins and the Falcons are 2.5-point favorites on the road, and pairing Cousins with one of his own pass catchers plus a value-priced Tampa Bay pass catcher (or two) is a way to play some Buccaneers chalk that makes our lineup different from the field.
At the top of the price range, there is a trio of QBs I’ll look to get over the field on. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are playing at home as 3.5-point favorites over the Eagles in the game that may have the best combination of a high total (47.0) and a close spread. Burrow has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in 5 of his past 6 games and has high-quality stacking partners at the WR position. Jordan Love and the Packers are 4-point favorites against a Jacksonville pass defense that has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Love has averaged a league-leading 3.0 TD passes per game this year but is just the 4th-most expensive QB on the slate on DraftKings.
Sitting a few hundred dollars cheaper than both Burrow and Love and seeing just 2.96% pOWN%, this may be the week I look to get over the field on Patrick Mahomes facing the Raiders in Las Vegas. Mahomes is as cheap as he has been over the past 2 years and is facing a Raiders defense that has allowed the 4th-most points per game this year. The expectations for the Chiefs’ passing offense have plummeted as the injuries have piled up, but with a new receiver in town and playing in an indoor environment, I’ll take some chances on Mahomes.
QB Prop Comp:
Bo Nix – Over/Under 201.5 passing yards, Over/Under 31.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (+140), 26.0 Team Implied Point Total, $5,600, 14.16% pOWN%
Jameis Winston – Over/Under 234.5 passing yards, Over/Under 9.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (+170), 18.5 Team Implied Point Total, $5,200, 3.75% pOWN%
Comparing the expectations for Nix and Winston in the prop market, the edge in rushing and scoring goes to Nix, but Winston has higher expectations for passing yards. With Winston pulling in almost a fourth the pOWN% of Nix, I’ll look to be over the field on the Cleveland QB.
Mixon Things Up at RB
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