Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 5

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Created Oct 6, 2026

Last Updated 2026-10-09 23:42:41 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 5, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

Welcome back!

Some slates go your way; other slates feel like there was never a chance. Week 4 was a slate where I got more wrong than right, and it wasn’t even close. I could cover all of the specifics of where I went wrong, but that might take up half the article. Kidding aside, there was nothing that I could spot in my process that seemed like a mistake; it was just an off week. Those are going to happen. We dust ourselves off and look forward to the Week 5 slate.

We still have a lot of moving pieces for this week’s slate (injury news we are still waiting on), but there’s one game that I am going to be overweight on regardless: The Lions/Cardinals game. I haven’t felt this good about a game stack since the Jets/Lions game earlier this season, and we all remember how well that panned out.

I firmly believe there is good chalk and bad chalk in NFL DFS. Even though the Lions/Cardinals game will be popular, it won’t be popular enough. I want to stack it as many ways as possible. There are ways to get contrarian in those stacks, or you can play the chalk from this game and build in contrarian plays around it.

I think it’s a mistake to be underweight on this game. So far this season, Lions games are 1st in scoring and 2nd in plays. The Lions’ defense is dead last in EPA allowed per play and success rate, while the Cardinals’ defense is dead last in EPA allowed per dropback. And to top it off, we have pass-heavy offenses squaring off in a dome.

You’ll see a lot of Lions and Cardinals in this week’s Key Personnel, but I’ll also cover my favorite plays from the rest of the games.

Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 5

This is a great week to keep tabs on the table below. A lot could change based on the injuries that we are still waiting on. My Core Plays, Strong Plays, and Sprinkle Plays won’t be updated in the breakdown, but they will be updated in this table and in LineupHQ.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Jared Goff ($6,600 DK / $8,100 FD) has always been a tough quarterback to trust on full slates, as the Lions have often leaned heavily on the run and have found themselves playing with large leads. The games where Goff showed a ceiling were when the Lions were pushed or fell behind early. This season has been a perfect recipe for Goff’s fantasy production. The defense might be the worst in the NFL, and the team has a much higher pass rate over expectation (PROE) than in previous seasons. Despite having no rushing upside, Goff has averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and 22.8 expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG). He draws an elite matchup against the Cardinals, who are dead last in EPA allowed per dropback.

Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) struggled against the Giants last week, but we’ll forgive him for one bad performance. Dating back to last season, he has topped 20 fantasy points in 10 of his last 16 games. He has two elite weapons in Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and you can’t ask for a better matchup. The Lions are dead last in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed this season. Detroit also plays at a fast pace, and both of these teams are well above the league average in PROE. Everything points to this game being a shootout, including the massive total of 54.5 points.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

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