Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Top Stacks: Week 17
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS stacks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, taking 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the Milly Maker on the Week 2 MNF 2-game slate. Should we roster the chalk stack? How off-the-board should we get in large-field tournaments? Squirrelpatrol answers all of these questions and more below!
As DFS strategies get more advanced, moving from hunch-based decision-making to play-by-play simulations meant to measure how often certain players or stacks appear in the optimal lineup, it’s important to pair both quantitative and qualitative analysis when putting together our NFL DFS lineups. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at our Optimal Stack Tool for both FanDuel and DraftKings and give some thoughts on what the best NFL DFS stacks will be for different contest types and sizes.
NFL DFS Top Stacks for Week 17 Main Slate
FanDuel Chalk Stack – Jalen Hurts vs. Arizona Cardinals
Jalen Hurts has the highest projected ownership on FanDuel this week, with a 12.9% projected ownership that is just lower than his 13.0% projected optimal rate in the Optimal Stacks Tool. Hurts is the most expensive QB on both sites this week, but it’s easy to see why the Optimal Stacks Tool has him with the highest optimal rate on FanDuel. If you’ve been following this article this season, you know I think it’s much easier to spend up at QB on FanDuel, where the pricing on quarterbacks doesn’t drop down as much at the low end and where rushing yards and touchdowns are relatively more important on a site where we only get a half point per reception (and no 300+ yard passing bonus).
Despite the advice of the Optimal Stacks Tool and the good scoring setup for Hurts on FanDuel this week, I’ll likely aim to be under the field on the Eagles QB. The Cardinals don’t have the league’s toughest defense, but they’ve generally been more forgiving on the ground (allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL this season) than through the air (allowing the 12th-fewest passing yards per game). The Eagles have one of the top implied point totals this week at 29.75 points, but with an 11.5-point spread and against a poor rushing defense, it’s not clear they will have to utilize Hurts to control this game. Much of the appeal for spending up for Hurts is from his rushing touchdowns, but even with 15 rushing touchdowns on the season, if none of his receivers (or running backs) get stopped at the one yard line again, he may not pay off that high price tag.
I won’t fade Hurts. If doing only one lineup, I would likely go in another direction just because my guess (which conflicts with the Optimal Stacks Tool) is that he’ll be owned more often than he is optimal. But if doing 6 or more lineups, I’d likely include Hurts in one of them. While I don’t think stacking rushing-dependent QBs is an absolute must, I prefer to stack my quarterbacks with at least one receiver to bring out their highest upside. For my lineups that are using Fields, my preferred stacking partner is no surprise- A.J. Brown, his most explosive WR. One way I could see Hurts landing on the optimal lineup is if he adds a long passing touchdown (most likely to Brown) to a Brotherly Shove rushing touchdown. Hurts does have an appealing run-back option as well, with Arizona tight end Trey McBride, one of the higher-projected tight ends
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