NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight — Bengals vs. Chiefs
While you patiently await NFL player props to populate at sportsbooks, I’m making my picks at Monkey Knife Fight right now. The DFS props site has already opened a plethora of lines for this week’s conference championship slate. I’ll start with the AFC Championship, as there are specifically some early Bengals vs. Chiefs props that stick out as as money-making opportunities. For more information, read our Monkey Knife Fight Review and sign up for a $100 deposit bonus today!
Remember these sites will adjust NFL player props throughout the week, and lines typically become more efficient closer to game time, so it’s often better to get in early than wait until kickoff. We want to pounce on value as soon as we see it.
Now here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight picks and plays for the Bengals vs. Chiefs.
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Bengals vs. Chiefs Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks
More or Less (2/2, 3x Your Buy-In)
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 295. Passing Yards
- Joe Burrow OVER 288.5 Passing Yards
The Chiefs are back. Patrick Mahomes has passed for 378 and 404 yards through two playoff games, and there’s no sign of him slowing down against the Bengals. Meanwhile, Burrow is coming off a 348-yard divisional-round performance after throwing for only 244 yards against the Raiders.
The difference between the two games for Burrow was that the Bengals led for more than three quarters against Las Vegas. That, however, shouldn’t be the case as the Bengals travel to Arrowhead Stadium and try to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs opened as 7-point favorites, suggesting Burrow Bengals will be playing catch-up with Mahomes & Co. on Sunday. We saw what that game script looked like when the Bengals hosted the Chiefs in Week 17. Kansas City led for three quarters and Burrow racked up 39 pass attempts for 446 yards and four touchdowns as he mounted a 34-31 come-from-behind victory.
Moreover, Kansas City leads the NFL with a +9.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE), passing the ball 66.5% of the time. Cincinnati sits 10th in PROE despite running the ball heavily early in the season. But the Bengals jump to 6th in PROE when you narrow the sample size to their last four games. In fact, both the Bengals and Chiefs are passing at a higher rate during that span, with PROEs of +10.1% and +2.7%, respectively. It’s also typically smart to correlate these quarterback picks by either selecting a pair of OVERS or a pair of UNDERS rather than getting fancy with an OVER+UNDER combination.
Touchdown Dance, OVER 1.5 (1.5x) or OVER 2.5 (4x)
After Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill led the Chiefs in regular-season touchdowns (9 each), both players found paydirt in each of the team’s playoff games. Hill is also making an appearance on special teams again as a punt returner now that it’s the postseason. Joe Mixon led the Bengals with 16 touchdowns during the regular season. Put simply, this three-player combination has by far the most touchdown equity of all possible options, and with a projected total of 54.5 points, there are plenty of touchdowns to be had.
If you’re more risk-averse, you can play conservatively and choose OVER 1.5 touchdowns for 1.5x your buy-in, but I’m certainly not opposed to gunning for a larger 4x payout with a riskier goal of 2.5 touchdowns.
Sack Attack, OVER 2.5 (1.5x)
- Chris Jones
- Frank Clark
- Trey Hendrickson
A porous Bengals offensive line allowed nine sacks against the Tennessee Titans. NINE SACKS. Pass protection is where the Bengals are weakest and we expect Burrow to drop back even more against Kansas City, which is why I’m starting my Sack Attack card with two Chiefs pass rushers: Chris Jones and Frank Clark. The duo combined for three of the Chiefs’ four sacks on Burrow in Week 17 and were their defense’s top sack leaders throughout the regular season. I’ll add Bengals sack leader Trey Hendricks as my third player, though I’m not sure we’ll need him for the group to exceed the goal of 2.5 sacks (1.5x buy-in).
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More or Less (5/5, 15x)
Patrick Mahomes OVER 295.5 Passing Yards
Joe Burrow OVER 288.5 Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 6.5 Receptions
Joe Mixon UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Tyreek Hill OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve already picked OVER for Mahomes and Burrow in a More or Less game for 3x our buy-in. Now we spice things up by adding three more player prop picks, which will give us 15x our buy-in if all five hit.
Since we already project big passing games from our quarterbacks, I want to correlate those picks with a pair of OVERS for Chase and Hill. On the other hand, since we expect a lot of passing, we’ll take the UNDER for Mixon’s rushing prop (60.5 yards).
More notes on Mixon: He might be Cincinnati’s bell-cow back but Mixon has only rushed for 60+ yards once in his last seven games. In their first meeting with the Chiefs, seven of his 19 touches came through the air. He finished the game with 46 rushing yards on 12 carries.
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