Week 13 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
We’re back in Week 13 with our second consecutive 10-game main slate on Sunday afternoon. This is yet another slate lacking in terms of high-end QBs. The Bills and Ravens are on bye, while the Chiefs are playing in the Sunday Night extravaganza. We’re also missing the red-hot Dak Prescott with the Cowboys facing the Seahawks on Thursday.
Even without several star QBs in the player pool, there are still quite a few attractive game environments on this slate. 4 of the 10 games feature totals of at least 45.5 points, while 3 games will take place in domes (SoFi included).
Here’s an overview of the QB position on DraftKings heading into Week 13.
Week 13 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) – 22.61 projected FPTs
Tua Tagovailoa currently projects as the top QB on the DK slate despite having just the fourth-highest salary at $7,900. Miami’s passing game struggled a bit on Black Friday against the Jets, but they’re in a prime bounce-back spot this week in Washington. The Commanders’ defense has plunged to 31st in total DVOA this season, while they’re ranked dead-last against the pass.
This is a stellar on-paper spot for what has been one of the most dynamic passing offenses in the sport all season. Miami only ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of pass-play percentage, but the big-play ability of this offense always makes this a standout stack to target in tournaments.
The Dolphins (-9.5) are the biggest favorites of Week 13, and their 29.5 implied team total is the highest on the board. As a result, it comes as no surprise to see that Tua is pulling the most projected ownership (13.1%) among the expensive QBs. As of this writing, the significantly cheaper Russell Wilson ($5,700) is the only quarterback with a higher pOWN% on DraftKings.
Tyreek Hill ($9,600) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) are also projected to be among the most popular wide receivers on the slate. These two have accounted for the vast majority of Tagovailoa’s targets all year long, and with good reason. Because we have a very obvious punt popping at running back in Zack Moss, the field should have the funds available to pay up for this ‘Fins stack in GPPs.
Russell Wilson ($5,700) – 18.59 projected FPTs
As mentioned, Russ is expected to be the most popular QB target in Week 13. This would’ve probably sounded like pure insanity only a few weeks ago, but things change. The Broncos’ offense looks downright competent these days, as they enter Sunday’s clash in Houston as winners of 5 straight games. That includes victories over teams like the Chiefs, Browns, and Bills, so it’s not like they’ve been picking on the dregs of the league, either.
Denver gets a “park upgrade” heading into the dome in Houston to face a Texans defense ranked 20th in total DVOA. Houston is another team that’s been vastly better than expected, but this game has legit shootout potential. The Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs, and the 47.5 over/under here is tied for the second-highest of Week 13.
Wilson is in the midst of a fine season overall, as he’s thrown 20 touchdown passes to just 4 interceptions. However, it’s not like he’s been putting up monster numbers. Wilson hasn’t topped 20 DK points in a game since Week 4, and he’s eclipsed that mark just twice all year. Russ has been held under 200 passing yards in 6 of his last 7 games, while he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes twice in the last 6 weeks.
I get it. He’s cheap, the matchup is favorable, and they’re in a dome. You can also stack him easily with his affordable weapons, as Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Jerry Jeudy ($4,700), and Marvin Mims ($3,300) certainly won’t break the bank.
Broncos stacks with Moss, Hill, and Christian McCaffrey as one-offs are very easy to build, and I’d expect that to be a very popular construction.
C.J. Stroud ($8,100) – 21.49 projected FPTs
It didn’t take long for C.J. Stroud to become an elite QB. His $8,100 salary this week is the second-highest of the slate, and he’s one of just three QBs priced at $8,000 or above. Stroud, of course, will face off against a Denver defense we were picking on routinely in the early stages of the season. The Texans’ 25.5 implied team total is among the highest on the slate, and he’s currently projecting for a paltry 5.3% ownership on DraftKings.
At this point, it’s safe to buy what Stroud is selling. He’s essentially the polar opposite of Wilson and putting up massive numbers on a weekly basis. Stroud has topped 300 yards passing and accounted for multiple touchdowns in 4 straight games, while he’s found the end zone with his legs 3 times in his last 5 outings.
While Wilson’s primary targets are still affordable, we’ve seen the salaries of Tank Dell ($7,400), Nico Collins ($6,800), and Dalton Schultz ($5,000) rise steadily along with Stroud’s.
The Broncos’ defense has fared better in recent weeks, but for the season, they’re still at the bottom of the league in tDVOA. They’re 28th against the pass and 31st against the run, so it’s fair to expect another big day for Stroud and this offense. The hefty salaries will keep the ownership down, but this is still one of the better spots to target in tournaments.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 13
Kenny Pickett ($5,100) – 15.46 projected FPTs
Nobody knows why it took so long, but the Steelers finally decided to fire Matt Canada into the sun before last week’s game against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh’s offense didn’t necessarily dominate en route to a 16-10 win over the Bengals, but they did actually appear to have a workable game plan.
Kenny Pickett threw 33 passes in that game, which was more than he’d thrown in any outing since Week 1. He was held without a touchdown pass for a third consecutive game, but his 278 passing yards were a season-high. This week, the Steelers find themselves in a much more advantageous spot against a Cardinals defense we’ve been picking on just about every week all year long.
Arizona is 30th in DVOA, including 31st against the pass. If Pickett and friends can’t put points on the board in this matchup, this offense may just be a lost cause altogether. If this game were taking place in Arizona, we might even see the Steelers coming in as chalk. The weather in Pittsburgh isn’t perfect, but it also doesn’t look bad enough to completely tank the scoring in this one.
Diontae Johnson ($5,000) and George Pickens ($4,800) are both projecting for ownership in the low double-digits, but Pickett is, weirdly, going overlooked. We’ve seen this scenario a few times this season with different QBs, and it makes little sense to me. If the pass-catchers are going to be chalky, shouldn’t we just play them with the guy responsible for throwing them the football?
Jared Goff ($6,500) – 17.95 projected FPTs
Lions-Saints is one of the aforementioned indoor games, yet the Detroit side of the game seems to be going weirdly overlooked. The Lions are favored by 3.5 points with a solid 25.5 total, yet Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) is the only player on the Detroit side pulling more than 10% pOWN.
The Saints’ defense does rank in the top half of the league in DVOA, so it’s not the best matchup on paper, even in the dome. Goff also doesn’t carry much – if any – rushing upside, which certainly limits his floor. I just think this is an interesting case, as the Lions are a very talented group projected to be rather contrarian despite not having to deal with negative weather conditions.
We admittedly aren’t getting a discount here, as stacking the $6,500 Goff with the $8,500 Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or the $5,600 Sam LaPorta will cost you a pretty penny. These guys are generally attracting most of Goff’s targets, though, so it is a very high-upside stack if you can find a way to afford it.
If there’s enough value to afford to pay up for Miami, we can afford to pay up for Detroit at what should be a significant ownership discount. It won’t take much to come in well over the field on Goff and the Lions offense in tournaments.