NFL DFS QB Report: Reviewing Week 8
NFL quarterbacks rely on efficiency to make their mark in daily fantasy sports. Stats like per attempt efficiency, volume metrics, air yards, deep attempts, and rushing yards can truly point us towards some of the best options on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to locate a few key QB trends from last week. The insights will help us understand how QB performances of the past could impact our future projections and projected ownership.
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Week 8 NFL DFS QB Efficiency, Volume, and Air Yards Report
Josh Allen
NFL Team: Buffalo Bills
Pass Attempts: 18 in Week 8
Air Yards: 179 in Week 8
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.86 in Week 8
Rushing Yards: 23 in Week 8
Allen is going from a dreadful matchup in awful weather conditions in Week 8 to one of the best matchups he can get in Week 9.
If you recall from this past Sunday, the weather in Buffalo was windy (20mph sustained), wet (scattered showers), and chilly (temps in the 40s). Not exactly an ideal situation against a Patriots defense that is in the top five in terms of fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
A combination of those factors is probably why you saw Allen’s worst fantasy performance of the season. He had his fewest passing attempts all season (18), his fewest completions (11), his second fewest yards passing (154), and only 23 yards rushing. The 179 air yards were easily a season-low too, but it is tough to be critical on that considering the conditions they were playing in.
After registering between 25-37 DraftKings points in the first four games of the season, the 13.46 DraftKings points in that Patriots game culminated a four-game stretch where he didn’t get above 20. But if you are looking for a get-right spot, I don’t think you could ask for much more than getting to face this Seahawks team. Their defense has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Matthew Stafford
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
Pass Attempts: 41 in Week 8
Air Yards: 398 in Week 8
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.84 in Week 8
Rushing Yards: 10 in Week 8
Sure, a portion of the above numbers can be attributed to the fact that the Lions had to air it out a ton in the fourth quarter due to being down a few scores, but it is still noteworthy nonetheless.
Not only were the 398 air yards Stafford’s most in one game this season, but they also led all quarterbacks in Week 8. He narrowly edged out the 388 from Patrick Mahomes. That being said, Stafford’s PACR was only 0.84, while a guy like Mahomes (who got to face the hapless Jets while Stafford was facing a stout Colts defense) had a 1.07 PACR. Passing yards for Mahomes? 416. Passing yards for Stafford? 336.
This team is still throwing 60% of the time (which is exactly what they did in 2019), and that ratio puts them inside the Top 10 in pass play percentage. The Lions head to Minnesota in Week 9 as four-point underdogs, but unfortunately they will probably be without Kenny Golladay. Hopefully his likely absence doesn’t lead head coach Matt Patricia to run the ball more this Sunday because this is an ideal matchup for Stafford. The Vikings have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Cam Newton
NFL Team: New England Patriots
Pass Attempts: 28 in Week 8
Air Yards: 156 in Week 8
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.27 in Week 8
Rushing Yards: 54 yards in Week 8
I wrote about Cam in this space after Week 7, as he was coming off of his worst game of the season against San Francisco. After posting season-lows across pretty much every statistical category in that game, the usage on Sunday against Buffalo was very encouraging.
For example, after just three designed runs in Week 7, he had eight of them on Sunday. That matched the number of designed runs he had in each of his last two games as well. And on that note, Cam continues to just dominate this team in terms of red zone rushing. Of the team’s 10 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, Cam has seven of them. He has turned those into five touchdowns, one of which came on Sunday.
Unfortunately, the passing statistics leave a lot to be desired. His massive game via the air against Seattle in Week 2 is looking more and more like an outlier, and it doesn’t help that he has a borderline embarrassing group of pass-catching options.
Perhaps a matchup against the Jets on Monday Night Football is what is needed for Cam to have another breakout game. Mahomes just dropped five passing touchdowns on this team on Sunday. But alas, Cam Newton is no Patrick Mahomes.
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