NFL DFS Role Change Report: Reviewing Week 7
The snap counts, targets, air yards, and usage statistics we see for NFL players have a significant impact on our decisions for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. NFL DFS is a game where opportunity is king, and it is important for us to know if the situation has changed for any of the players. Each week in NFL DFS will show us a few players who have changes in their snap percentage and other key stats. In this article, we will look back on how these stats could impact future DFS player projections and projected ownership.
Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to rewind and take stock of how usage for a few players changed this week in NFL DFS.
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Today’s NFL DFS Snaps, Targets, and Air Yards Change Report
Marquez Callaway
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 73%
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 28% market share of targets in Week 7
With Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out for Week 7’s matchup against Carolina, much of the talk in DFS circles leading up to the game was about Tre’Quan Smith. And while Smith (81%) slightly out-snapped Callaway (73%), it was Callaway who was the clear winner in targets.
Callaway: 10 targets, 28% market share
Smith: 4 targets, 11% market share
With it being this far out from Week 8’s game against Chicago, it is no telling who will be active/inactive in this New Orleans wide receiver group. But if we see the same situation as Week 7, it is worth noting that Callaway remains extremely cheap on DraftKings at just $3,400.
Ronald Jones
NFL Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 43% in Week 7
Key Passing Game Usage Stat:5% market share of targets in Week 7
Key Running Game Usage Stat:52% market share of rushes in Week 7
For those hoping that the performance of Ronald Jones while Leonard Fournette was out (essentially Weeks 4-6) would give Jones a stranglehold on the Bucs backfield, I have some bad news for you. Here are some key stats for Jones in Weeks 4-6, when Fournette played exactly one snap (in a victory formation too, if I recall correctly):
64% snap percentage, 73% market share of rushes, 14% market share of targets
With Fournette back and ready to roll in Week 7, here are those same metrics from yesterday’s game against the Raiders:
43% snap percentage, 52% market share of rushes, 5% market share of targets
As someone with Jones in my main season-long league, I was hoping he had done enough the past few weeks to get the lion’s share of work in this backfield going forward, even with Fournette back. But based on the usage yesterday, it looks like we are heading towards a relatively split workload until further notice.
Boston Scott
NFL Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 69% in Week 7
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 12% market share of targets in Week 7
Key Running Game Usage Stat:46% market share of rushes in Week 7
The viability of Scott as a play in Week 8 obviously hinges on the availability of Miles Sanders (knee). But with the Eagles having their bye in Week 9, you could see them playing it safe with Sanders in Week 8 and having him sit out another game. That would give him, with that Week 9 bye, essentially another two weeks of recovery.
Scott stepped in admirably for Sanders in that Thursday night game against the Giants. Obviously his role changed immensely considering their main RB was out with a knee injury. But what I mainly took note of was the increased opportunity compared to Week 1, which was the other game Sanders missed this season. Below are some key metrics for Scott in both games that Sanders has missed.
Week 1 vs. WAS: 56% snap percentage, 53% market share of rushes, 5% market share of targets
Week 7 vs. NYG: 69% snap percentage, 46% market share of rushes, 12% market share of targets
While his market share of rushes in Week 7 was technically down compared to Week 1, a lot of that had to do with the fact that Wentz soaked up an abnormal amount of the market share of rushes on Thursday (27%). When we look at the actual running back carries, Scott got nine in Week 1 but 12 in Week 7. Corey Clement got six carries in Week 1 but just two in Week 7.
So if Sanders does in fact sit out Week 8, we should feel pretty good about Scott going up against this Dallas “defense”.
Image Credit: Imagn