NFL DFS Role Change Report: Reviewing Week 9
The snap counts, targets, air yards, and usage statistics we see for NFL players has a significant impact on our decisions for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. NFL DFS is a game where opportunity is king, and it is important for us to know if the situation has changed for any of the players. Each week in NFL DFS will show us a few players who have changes in their snap percentage and other key stats. In this article, we will look back how these stats could impact future NFL projections and projected ownership.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to rewind and take stock of how usage for a few players changed this week in NFL DFS.
Today’s NFL DFS Snaps, Targets, and Air Yards Change Report
Christian McCaffrey
NFL Team: Carolina Panthers
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 71% in Week 9
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 10 targets in Week 9
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 18 carries in Week 9
This isn’t really a role change, but it is good to check in with CMC’s usage in his first game back from injury after there was all sorts of coach-speak leading up to the game about how the Panthers planned to use he and Mike Davis. And the result was that coach-speak is largely for the birds.
While CMC might have logged ‘just’ 71% of the snaps, it felt like he touched the ball every single time he was out there. His 18 carries represented 75% of the market share of rushes (Davis had just one carry for 4%), and his 10 targets (of which he caught all of them because of course he did) represented almost 23% of the market share of targets (for what it’s worth, Davis did see six targets too).
Looking back on it, this all makes plenty of sense. It is logical to keep his snap count tempered at least a little bit, but you might as well get the guy involved as much as possible while he is out there if you are going to limit his snaps. I’d say 28 touches in his first game since Week 2 is getting the guy involved!
It is worth noting that he did get dinged up at the end of the game yesterday, so his status is worth monitoring heading into a difficult Week 10 matchup against the Bucs (don’t tell the Saints that though). But if we assume CMC is ready to go for that game, it is apparent that the Panthers are going right back to giving him a monstrous workload.
James Conner
NFL Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 46% in Week 9
Key Running Game Usage Stat:9 carries in Week 9
For a guy who only played 58% of snaps in the previous game, Conner sure saw a lot of chatter in the DFS industry leading up to the Week 9 game against the Cowboys. A lot of that was surely game-script related, as the Steelers were around a two-touchdown favorite yesterday. And after all, Conner did see 15 carries against the Ravens in Week 8.
Well, it’s safe to say that the game-script did not go according to plan against the Cowboys. Despite pulling out the win, the Steelers played from behind nearly all game; they didn’t take the lead until around the two-minute mark in the fourth quarter.
While it is easy to look at the box score from this game and just assume Conner’s bad fantasy performance was due to the Steelers airing it out more, the usage is still concerning. For one, he wasn’t even on the field for half of the team’s snaps. And where he saw 80% of the team’s rushes in Week 7 and 94% in Week 8, he only saw 50% in Week 9.
All in all, Conner is far from being the type of workhorse back that we’d like him to be. It doesn’t help either that the Steelers wide receivers crop is littered with talent, so they aren’t shy about airing it out when the situation warrants it. Ultimately, Conner is far more reliant on touchdowns than we’d like to think.
J.D. McKissic
NFL Team: The Washington Football Team
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 83% in Week 9
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 14 targets in Week 9
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 3 rushes in Week 9
I understand the game-script was extremely favorable for a guy who is far more efficient catching passes than rushing the ball, but even these numbers are noteworthy. Yes, the Football Team was behind the whole game, but McKissic was in early and often for Washington.
His 83% of snaps was easily a season-high. The 14 targets? Season-high. 9 receptions? Season-high. I think you get the picture!
On tap for Week 10 is a matchup against the Detroit Lions, a team that just so happens to give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in the entire league. “Helping” their cause in that department is the fact that they have given up a league-leading five receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
If McKissic could at least sniff this kind of usage again in Week 10—while also being able to find the end zone—he could handsomely pay off some relatively cheap price tags across the industry.
Image Credit: Imagn