NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 10
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
Week 10 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Aaron Jones
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Rush DVOA (Rank): 21st
Expected Points Added (Rank): 16th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 5th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 6th
Considering they are dead last in team defense DVOA, Jacksonville is pretty much a good matchup for any position. They are one of five defenses that gives up an average of 30+ points per game, and they also allow the second most yards per game (418.1) in the league. It turns out that we really like when our fantasy players score points and gain yards!
As such, Aaron Jones is probably at home right this second visualizing all of the fantasy points he can get us this weekend against this defense (or maybe he is visualizing how he can help his team win the game; I prefer the former). All indications are that he should be ready for a normal workload since their last game was the Thursday of Week 9. In that game, the Packers didn’t seem to ease him back into things at all after that calf injury caused him to miss the two games prior. Despite not needing much of his services for the fourth quarter, he still played on 61% of the snaps and touched the ball 20 times.
The game-script should set up perfectly for Jones too, as the Packers are currently sitting at -13 at home against this Jags team. Even though there are some cheap running backs on this Week 10 slate that will garner some attention, Jones is still going to get his fair share of ownership due to this matchup.
James Robinson
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Rush DVOA (Rank): 20th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 11th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 19th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 2nd
On the other side of this game, the Packers defense has actually allowed the second most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs. Yes, that is somewhat skewed by the fact that Dalvin Cook dropped 51.6 DraftKings points on them in Week 8. But they still gave up that performance. And they have still given up big games to other running backs too.
Even if you want to temper your expectations on how good this matchup is or isn’t, Robinson still touches the ball way more than I think people realize. In Week 7, he saw 26 touches (22 rushes, 4 receptions) for 137 total yards and two touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). In Week 8, he saw 25 touches (all on the ground as he didn’t haul in either of his two targets) for 99 yards and a score. Quite simply, there are very few running backs in the league who have the ball in their hands as much as this guy.
That being said, there are reasons why he isn’t always as appealing of a fantasy play as some other guys. For one, Chris Thompson is always lurking behind him to come in on obvious passing downs. And if this game goes the way oddsmakers think it will, there will be a lot of those for the Jags. Furthermore—and this probably my own bias more than anything—Robinson always seems to find himself with a price tag that is just a tad too close to the other more appealing running back plays.
Of course, all of those things usually lead to depressed ownership too. When DFS players look for Jags “bring-backs” to go with their Packers stacks, I am guessing they look to wide receivers and not Robinson.
Antonio Gibson
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 25th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 1st
Before diving in here, let’s take care of some housekeeping first.
Gibson missed Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury. Was that a reason he played so sparingly in last Sunday’s game against the Giants? Or was it game-script? Perhaps a little bit of both, but I don’t think we’ll ever know. We will obviously want him cleared for Sunday before deploying him in our fantasy lineups.
Since Gibson’s teammate, J.D. McKissic, was the big fantasy winner in that Giants game, I think this is the week to hop on Gibson at extremely low ownership. Because if there is ever a game for Gibson to give DFS players a big ceiling performance, it is going to be in this matchup against the Lions.
7th worst in Rush Defense DVOA? Check.
Most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs? Check.
And the two other stats listed above (Expected Points allowed; Rush Yards allowed) are specific to just the run game, which is where Gibson can really pay off compared to McKissic. This Lions defense gets gashed on the ground, so this could be a prime Gibson spot.
Any casual player looking to roster a Football Team running back (that still feels weird to type) is going to look at these game logs and largely go with McKissic over Gibson. And it’s not like there are many DFS players looking to roster running backs from this team anyways. Oh, and Gibson has that nice ‘Q’ next to his name too, which will discourage DFS players even more.
You’re certainly not going to feel good about it if you ultimately click his name into your lineup. But if there ever was a week for Gibson to break a slate, it is this week against the Lions. Now go get yourself some Pepto Bismol.