NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 9
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Dalvin Cook
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 21st
Expected Points Added (Rank): 7th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 11th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 2nd
The Lions have been getting torched by opposing running backs all season, as they have given up the second most fantasy points to the position.
Upon looking a little deeper, a lot of it appears to be touchdown-driven. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns to this position to go along with four receiving touchdowns. Those 12 touchdowns are second only to the 14 combined (10 rushing, 4 receiving) allowed to this position by the Green Bay Packers. The irony of it all is that the Packers had given up ‘only’ 10 touchdowns to this position heading into the Week 8 matchup against…the Minnesota Vikings!
The recency bias, lack of appealing options amongst the expensive RB’s (e.g. McCaffrey first game back from injury, Henry vs. the Bears, etc.), and this elite matchup is likely to lead to some heavy, heavy ownership on Cook this week. Keep that in mind as you build your tournament lineups. If Detroit can somehow keep him out of the end zone, Cook could wind up with just an ‘okay’ fantasy performance that is easily beatable in the large-field tournaments.
James Robinson
Opponent: Houston Texans
Rush DVOA (Rank): 27th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 3rd
This situation fascinates me for Week 9, because if you didn’t a sort of blind resumé type of thing here, Robinson would stick out like a sore thumb.
Think about it. The matchup part is obviously in his favor, as you can see from the stats above. The Texans are sixth to last in Rush Defense DVOA, while allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs, allowing the second most rushing yards to opposing running backs, and having the second highest EPA.
For Robinson’s part, he easily gets the most snaps in this Jacksonville backfield (65%; next closest is Chris Thompson at 34%), dominates the market share of rushes (83.1%), is involved in the passing game (13.1% market share of targets), and has gotten every single carry this season for the Jags that has been inside the five-yard line (which there admittedly have not been a lot of).
The elephants in the room, of course, is the fact that the Jaguars stink and are now starting Jake Luton in Week 9. Are they going to be able to generate enough offense to make investing in Robinson at these price tags ($7,300 FD; $7,000 DK) worthwhile? That remains to be seen, but I’m guessing you won’t have to worry at all about ownership on him this week. He is the fourth most expensive running back on DK; I have a hard time believing he gets much of any attention on that site this week.
Chase Edmonds
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
Rush DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 6th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 13th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 7th
This particular analysis regarding Edmonds hinges on Kenyan Drake not playing on Sunday. And while that certainly appears to be the most likely scenario, it is far from official just yet.
Assuming Drake does sit out, this seems to be the perfect storm for Edmonds. For one, the guy who is preventing him from getting more playing time is likely out this weekend. On the season, Drake has played on 63% of the snaps, while Edmonds is down at just 40%.
And secondly, this comes at a time when he gets one of the best matchups in the league for opposing running backs. The Dolphins rank dead last in Rush Defense DVOA and, as you can see in GridIronIQ, they also allow the highest “Rush Success Rate” in the league.
So as you can see, there are certainly paths here to Edmonds eating up this Dolphins defense on the ground. But even if he doesn’t (or the Cardinals don’t give him much of a chance to by throwing a lot instead), Edmonds is a far better contributor in the passing game than Drake. Edmonds has a 13.1% market share of targets, which is the fourth highest on this Cardinals team. Drake is all the way down at 4.4%, which is, ummmm, closer to fourth to last.
Image Credit: Imagn
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