NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 11 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
In this article, we’ll leverage the NFL projections we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 11 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Dalvin Cook
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 24.93
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 22.12
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 22.12
Cook is one of the few true bellcow backs remaining in the league, and it shows in our projections in LineupHQ. He and Alvin Kamara are pretty much in their own tier at the top of the running back position for raw fantasy points in Week 11, and Cook is even a few points ahead of Kamara on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Since returning in Week 8 from his groin injury, he has garnered a whopping 51.5% of the total market share of opportunity for this Vikings offense. He had 32 touches in Week 8, 24 touches in Week 9, and 34 touches in Week 10. That is drastically different than what he was seeing at the start of the year.
Week 1: 13 touches
Week 2: 16 touches
Week 3: 24 touches
Week 4: 29 touches
Week 5: left game early with the groin injury
It is pretty clear the Vikings made a point to start force-feeding him the ball after the first few games of the season. Those 30 touches per game over the last three would easily put him at the top of the league. For comparison, Christian McCaffrey leads the league with approximately 25 touches per game across his three games played.
Simply put, Cook is everything we ask for at the running back position. He plays the majority of the RB snaps, is involved in the passing game, and gets most of the goal line work. With the bellcow running back apparently being a dying breed in the NFL, we need to take advantage of the situation for fantasy football purposes while we still can.
Alvin Kamara
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 22.45
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 19.46
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 19.46
While Kamara doesn’t see quite as many touches per game as Cook, his heavy involvement in the passing game helps narrow the gap, especially on full-PPR sites like DraftKings.
And I am not bolding the word heavy to exaggerate in case you were wondering. Consider for a second that, this season, Kamara has a 26.1% market share of his team’s targets. Not only does that easily lead all running backs (the next closest is Mike Davis at 18.6%), but it also has him 11th in the entire league!
Those are some pretty insane statistics for a running back, and it’s just icing on the cake when you factor in all of the red zone work he gets on the ground too. For all of that work in the passing game, Kamara also has seven rushing touchdowns this season.
On tap for Week 11 is a matchup against a Falcons defense that has been far better against opposing running backs compared to year’s past, as they are only allowing the 24th most fantasy points to the position this year. That being said, they also rank 28th in Pass Defense DVOA, and Kamara isn’t like most running backs with how heavily he is involved in the passing game. He is going to make for one of the top running backs on the slate this weekend, just as our projections reflect.
Aaron Jones
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 18.28
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.94
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.94
Don’t get me wrong, Jones always has tournament-winning upside whenever he is on a slate. He certainly showed it in Week 2 against the Lions.
But the fact of the matter is that was his only game this season that he flashed that upside. It also just so happened to come in THE friendliest matchup possible for running backs this season.
With how much the Packers limit his snaps, the fact of the matter is that it is going to be harder for Jones to hit that ceiling. Here are his snap rates this season:
54%, 48%, 71%, 52%, 57%, 61%, 63%
And it certainly seemed like that last game would have gone well under 63% if Tyler Ervin hadn’t gotten injured. It is extremely frustrating to not see Jones out on the field all the time when you have him on your roster.
So when you factor in a very difficult matchup against the Colts this weekend (7th fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs; 4th in Rush Defense DVOA), it is hard to get too excited about Jones on this slate since he is the fourth most expensive running back. Sure, all of those things will go to lower ownership too, but will it get low enough to the point we want to seriously consider him in our main lineups?