Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Conference Championships

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-01-24 19:55:47 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

I ended up having a great weekend for the Divisional Round. I thought my lineups were looking to min-cash at best, but everything broke my way for the 2 Sunday games. It wasn’t a tournament-winning week, but it certainly helped pad the old bankroll.

Unfortunately, this will be the final Key Personnel article of the season. We will have plenty of Showdown content for the Super Bowl, and I’m fairly certain the Key Personnel will be back next season. It’s been one of my better NFL seasons in DFS, so I hope that’s been the case for many of you as well. As always, I appreciate every single one of you who reads this article. Let’s finish the season with a bang.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for the Conference Championships

It’s usually difficult to build lineups on 2-game slates, but the pricing is fairly soft for the Conference Championships. Or perhaps it’s because we only have one elite spend at running back and very few elite spends at wide receiver. The key to the slate for me is running back. Saquon Barkley is the obvious choice, but the rest of your lineup hinges on what you do for your second running back. Let’s dive into my favorite play at each position.

To stay up to date with my thoughts on the slate and the weather, make sure to check out our NFL DFS Optimizer and the NFL Weather page.

Quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

Josh Allen: $7,700 DK / $9,000 FD

Even though he doesn’t project as the best point-per-dollar quarterback play, Josh Allen is in a tier of his own this weekend (at least in my eyes). In games where the Bills have been pushed, he’s had some monster fantasy outings this season (44 fantasy points against the Lions, 55 fantasy points against the Rams). He’s always offered rushing upside, but it’s even higher now that the Bills have implemented the tush-push. While Kansas City is a difficult place to play, the Chiefs are actually the best-remaining matchup for quarterbacks, as they have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

BEST OF THE REST

If I decide to build more than 1 lineup this weekend, I will get exposure to Patrick Mahomes. I fully expect the Bills to put up points in this game, and we all know how good Mahomes has been in the playoffs throughout his career. He wasn’t asked to do much last week (only 23 pass attempts), but we should be encouraged by his 7 rushing attempts. We know he’s going to be running around the pocket, making plays with both his arm and his legs.

I don’t have nearly as much interest in the quarterbacks from the WAS/PHI game. Jayden Daniels has been incredible all season, but the Eagles are 3rd in EPA against the pass and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts has attempted 22 or fewer passes in 5 of his last 6 games and is now dealing with a knee injury. If his mobility is limited, it’s hard for me to see him breaking the slate. I much prefer Allen and Mahomes.

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