Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Divisional Round

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2026-01-16 22:42:50 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for the Divisional Round, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy.

We are back with another playoff edition of the Key Personnel.

While the final 2 games of Wild Card Weekend were blowouts, we had some incredible games on Saturday and Sunday. Based on the matchups for the Divisional Round, we could see an encore performance from the NFL this season. Before we get into the positional breakdown, I have to note that FanDuel and DraftKings are rolling out very different main slates. FanDuel has decided to break up the weekend into two main slates — a 2-gamer on Saturday and a 2-gamer on Sunday. DraftKings has decided to include all 4 of the games on their main slate. I much prefer the latter, but options are never a bad thing when it comes to DFS.

This article will mostly focus on the 4-game main slate on DraftKings, but I will include the salaries of each 2-game slate on FanDuel as well. At the bottom of the article, I’ll give a quick rundown of my thoughts on how to attack each of the 2-game slates.

I have a unique roster construction in mind this week, so let’s hope it pays off. As always, thanks for reading these articles. Cheers to a great weekend.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for the Divisional Round

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

We have a lot of intriguing plays at quarterback this week. As I always do in the playoffs, I plan to be well over the field on Josh Allen ($7,100 DK / $9,000 FD). I’m not sure his body is going to hold up over the course of an entire Super Bowl run with how many shots he is taking, but he’s essentially their entire offense right now. In addition to throwing for 273 yards and a touchdown last week, he had 11 rushing attempts for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills have made the tush push their own, which gives Allen touchdown equity when they get down near the goal line. I’m hoping a tough matchup against the Broncos (6th-fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) will lead to low ownership.

If you can’t find the cap space for Allen, Bo Nix ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) is my favorite value at quarterback. He doesn’t have the best matchup by any means, but he’s playing at home and coming off a bye week. More importantly, he is asked to do so much in Denver’s offense. We have a lot of pocket passers on this slate, but Nix provides some much needed rushing upside. He’s rushed for over 40 yards in back-to-back games and has 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. You can pair him with the chalky RJ Harvey, or you can use him as a leverage play away from Harvey. I’m leaning toward the latter, as Harvey has 15 targets in the last 3 games.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Matthew Stafford ($6,600 DK / $8,400 FD) might be the safest quarterback play on the slate. With all of his weapons back and an offensive-minded head coach, I have no worries about him putting up numbers against the Bears. From a fantasy production standpoint, this is the best matchup on the board. The Bears allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season and gave up 323 yards and 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love last week. The Stafford single-stacks and double-stacks are firmly in play.

On paper, Sam Darnold ($5,400 DK / $7,300 FD) should be the top point-per-dollar quarterback play of the week. The Seahawks have the highest team total on the board, and they’re facing the worst defense left in the playoffs. The Niners are missing so many key players on defense and are ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. It feels like the Eagles should have run away with last week’s game, but they took their foot off the gas. My concern with Darnold this week is that the Seahawks want him to manage the game, not go out and win it. In this same matchup in Week 18, Darnold had only 26 pass attempts. For him to reach his ceiling, we need the Niners to put up a lot of points.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Josh Allen, Bo Nix
💪 Strong Plays: Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold
🔗 Potential Pairings: Darnold + JSN, Stafford + Nacua

Top Running Back Plays

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