Noto's Key Personnel: Week 10
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
Week 10… where does the time go? We are officially halfway through the NFL season and the holiday season is right around the corner. The Thanksgiving slate is my favorite DFS day of the year. The NBA Christmas slate is a close second, but that’s only because Christmas is a little more hectic than Thanksgiving. And there’s something really fun about a three-game NFL slate where game theory and late swap come into play more than usual.
On a completely unrelated note, I bought a new car last summer and I absolutely love driving it. I don’t have legal sports betting here in Utah, so I drive across the Wyoming border once or twice a week to get all of my bets in. It’s far from ideal, but I prefer it over the offshore books, and I’ve actually grown to love the drive. It’s a beautiful, winding drive through the mountains, and it gives me a chance to catch up on all of my favorite DFS podcasts.
The problem is that my car is addicted to getting hit with pelted with rocks. I had to repair two rock chips in the windshield this summer and it has gotten even worse since. In addition to another rock chip, I now have two cracks that I need to get fixed before winter comes. Why bring this up? Well, for one, I like a little small talk in my articles. And two, the windshield represents our lineups in DFS, and the rock chips are the bad plays that we are trying to avoid.
Let’s dodge those rocks and hope for a chip-free windshield in Week 10!
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 10
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Joe Burrow: $6,800 DK / $8,200 FD
Geno Smith: $5,800 DK / $6.900 FD
This is a strange week where we don’t have any super expensive options to choose from at quarterback. Even the plays that project the best are more affordable, which will allow us to spend up elsewhere. Joe Burrow has fully recovered from his calf injury that hampered him in the early part of the season. He has topped 25 fantasy points in three of his last four games and now gets to square off against the Texans, who are 26th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in dropback EPA this season. The absence of Tee Higgins may not be ideal for Burrow, but it does concentrate the targets and make it easier to stack with him.
Geno Smith has not had nearly as much success as last season even though he has more weapons to work with this season. The efficiency is down, and he isn’t scrambling as much, which is why he’s been held under 17 fantasy points in six straight games. The form is far from perfect, but a matchup against the Commanders tends to cure all quarterbacking woes. Washington is ranked in the bottom four in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They also traded away two of their best pass rushers at the deadline. Smith stands out as an excellent per-dollar option this week, and I like pairing him with one receiver in particular (stay tuned).
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