Noto's Key Personnel: Week 12
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
Thanksgiving is officially in the rearview mirror. Naturally, it decided to snow the day after here in Utah. It is officially Christmas season.
For those of you that have kids and partake in the ‘Elf on the Shelf’ nonsense, I need your help. I have a feeling this might be the last Christmas that my little man believes in the magic of his elf and of Santa, so I want to make it a special one. I have been doing the elf gig for many years and am fresh out of ideas. He’s been naughty (making messes), he’s been nice (bringing little gifts), he’s been funny (hiding in fun places), and he’s been mischievous (boating in the tub, sledding down the stairs, etc). If you have any fun ideas that I could work into the program, please let me know. You can’t leave comments on articles anymore, but reach out to me in the RG Discord or on X / Twitter.
Now let’s talk about the Week 12 main slate. With 3 games on Thanksgiving, 1 game on Friday, and the usual 2 primetime games on Sunday and Monday night, there are only 10 games on the main slate. We are missing a lot of star-power, which makes for a very interesting slate. There are also a lot of injuries to monitor, so a lot could change from now (Friday afternoon) to Sunday morning. As always, I will provide my updated thoughts in the Consensus Value Rankings and in LineupHQ.
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 12
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Josh Allen: $8,200 DK / $9,100 FD
Gardner Minshew: $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD
We’ll kick off the quarterback position with a player that is set to garner less than 10% ownership. The advanced metrics (most notably EPA and success rate) have loved the Bills all season, but the Bills have found some very creative ways to lose football games. Not only do I think they will keep this week’s game against the Eagles competitive, I think they will win. The matchup sets up extremely well for the passing game, as Philadelphia has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs and the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Josh Allen is capable of throwing for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns and running for 50 yards and multiple touchdowns. He’s my preferred spend-up at quarterback this week.
If looking to save at the position, there are two quarterbacks that come to mind this week, and they are both playing in the same game. We’ll cover the other shortly, but let’s talk about Gardner Minshew. He’s playing at home (indoors) against one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the NFL. The Buccaneers are ranked 1st in rush EPA and 25th in dropback EPA. The best part about Minshew is that he offers leverage off of a very chalky Jonathan Taylor. Minshew has struggled a bit recently, but he did put up 34 fantasy points against the Browns in Week 7. This is arguably his best matchup to date.
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