Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 15

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2024-12-14 18:04:35 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

Happy Week 15!

We only have 4 main slates remaining in the NFL this year, and we have less than 2 weeks until Christmas. It’s wild how fast time flies.

Before we get into this week’s slate, let’s quickly recap last week’s slate. I made a priority of paying up for Josh Allen on FanDuel, but decided to go the cheaper route with Aidan O’Connell on DraftKings. Looking back, there were three extremely obvious value plays at running back that I should have locked: Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, and Braelon Allen. I ended up going with two of them in each of my lineups, which was good but not great. Going with three cheap running backs would have allowed me to play Allen and some of the expensive wide receivers that crushed: Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Tyreek Hill. I think my mistake was getting too attached to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara too early in the week. After all of the injury news each week, we need to hit the refresh button in our brain and start from scratch.

We learned from last week and now move on to Week 15. This is always a fun time of year because there are no bye weeks and we start to get extra non-Sunday games. We have 2 games on Monday, then next week we have 2 games on Saturday. We are all so addicted to the NFL that I wouldn’t mind there being at least one game on every night of the week. It probably wouldn’t work from a scheduling standpoint, but the NFL season goes by so fast that I would love to be able to watch a game every night. Anyway, I’m excited for the main slate and excited for the 2-game slate that we have on Monday night.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 15

We have an interesting slate on tap this week. There are viable spend-up and spend-down options at every position. We should see spread-out ownership, which is always better than when the chalk condenses around a handful of players. There shouldn’t be a common roster construction, as the balanced build and the stars-and-scrubs build are both viable this week.

To stay up to date with my thoughts on the slate and the weather, make sure to check out our NFL DFS Optimizer and the NFL Weather page.

Quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

Justin Herbert: $5,900 DK / $7,500 FD

The Chargers have really struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins in the lineup and are now facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. I’ve been targeting cheap quarterbacks against the Buccaneers all season, so I will certainly be over the field on Justin Herbert this week. On the season, Tampa Bay is 25th in EPA against the pass and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They’ve also had a soft schedule, so their numbers against the pass could be even worse. Herbert has scored at least 17 fantasy points in 6 of his last 8 games, so his floor is higher than you might expect.

Josh Allen: $9,500 FD

As I have been doing all season, I plan to pay up at the quarterback position on FanDuel. Josh Allen just put up the best quarterback performance in DFS that we have ever seen. He scored 55 fantasy points against the Rams. He single-handedly carried lineups across the cash line. This week, he squares off against the Lions, who are going to provide a ton of push back in terms of points. The Lions have been extremely tough against the run, so I expect a pass-heavy game plan from the Bills. Allen offers a high floor and a high ceiling, so I don’t mind paying a small premium for him this week.

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