Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 11
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 11
STACKS
PROJECTION — Lions vs. Bears, Cardinals at Texans, and Texans vs. Cardinals
The Lions have the 2nd-highest implied team total (27.50) on the board at home in the dome – the highest team total is also a 12.5-point favorite – so the stack is at the top of Opto% projections for both sites. By slim margins, but at the top, nonetheless.
They draw a God-forsaken Bears defense, and Jared Goff has Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs as weapons to get there through the air. Goff projects as a top-5 QB at under 10% pOWN% in large-field MME, so it would be surprising if he got in the 20% range in single-entry tournaments.
St. Brown is a top-3-projected WR on the slate at what should be ~25% ownership, so the way to play him is to correlate him with Goff to offset the chalkiness. LaPorta is looking at sub-5% ownership, so he might be the play. That said, St. Brown has 9, 9, 19, and 15 targets, respectively, over the last 4 games. Goff looks for him first.
The Cardinals are hot on the Opto% train, and they are cheap. Kyler Murray to Trey McBride only costs $10,500 on DK and $13,500 on FD, so we really don’t have to play whack-a-mole with the WRs.
McBride caught 8-of-9 targets for 131 yards in his first game with Murray, who threw for 249 yards on 32 attempts and ran in a TD. Murray should have more dropbacks as a 6-point ‘dog this week against the electric Texans passing attack.
C.J. Stroud to Tank Dell or Noah Brown is the route where I wanna go in this game though. Without Nico Collins in Week 10, Dell saw 182 air yards on 14 targets, while Brown saw 132 on 8 targets. Collins will be back in Week 11, but we haven’t seen more than 6 targets to him over his last 4 games. There isn’t a wrong answer here between Dell and Brown, and this is a potential double-stack, considering a 27.25 implied team total.
Arizona is 32nd in DvP vs. TEs, so Dalton Schultz is viable, if you believe in that stuff.
VALUE — 49ers vs. Buccaneers and Cowboys at Panthers
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