Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 16
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%. This week is a shorter main slate of only nine games, so ownership could get crazy at the top and bottom.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 16
STACKS
DOLPHINS VS. COWBOYS
The Dolphins aren’t the top-projected stack, but this and their price tag are pushing them to sub-5% ownership. All they’ve done is accumulate more passing yards per game (274.4) than anyone with a highly (highly!!!) concentrated offense. Everything goes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the air, and Hill dominates that pecking order.
Hill has eight games of 10-plus targets this season, while Tua Tagovailoa has eight games of 250-plus passing yards and seven with multiple TD passes. The Cowboys are a staunch defense, but Vegas still has the Dolphins with a 26-point implied total at home. The Dolphins are gonna be passing a ton in a game with a 1.5-point spread, so we should absolutely love the firepower of the Dolphins if we can find a way to afford them, as they’re great and no one is playing them.
PROJECTION — Cowboys at Dolphins and Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
On the other side of this game is the better-projected, even more highly-concentrated passing attack of the Cowboys. This game’s 50.5 total is sexy, and the Cowboys only fail at running the football. Dak Prescott projects very well and might be in the 5% ownership range himself despite likely needing to throw more than 40 times.
Ceedee Lamb has been a monster as of late, seeing 10, 10, 17, 9, 9, 14, 16, and 14 targets over the last eight games. There’s no sign of this volume slowing down, and the Dolphins really shouldn’t have an answer for him.
The problem is that Prescott-Lamb — like Tagovailoa-HIll — cost a good chunk of change. Baker Mayfield is free on DraftKings and Mike Evans is affordable there, while the two are priced up a bit on FanDuel. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (256.6) and the second-most DK points per game (23.1) to QBs. Mayfield-Evans is gonna cost a lot in ownership though, because this is all stuff that everyone knows- even on FD where they aren’t cheap. And this over-under is a very humbling 41.5, with the Bucs’ implied total at only 21.5.
Evans has seen double-digit targets in six games this season — eight-plus targets in eight games. Mayfield hasn’t had many huge games this season, but he is coming off of 381 passing yards and four TD passes in Green Bay.
On DraftKings, the Bucs play is intriguing. On FanDuel, if I’m spending that sort of salary, I’ll just spend more for the Dolphins or Cowboys.
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