Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 17
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 17
STACKS
JUGGERNAUTS – 49ers at Commanders, Dolphins at Ravens
Vegas says the 49ers are the highest-scoring team on the slate with a 31.75 implied total – a full two points ahead of the next team. But I don’t have to tell you that the 49ers don’t need to be stacked in the air to cash in on a high-scoring week for the team.
Brock Purdy projects well. George Kittle projects well. Brandon Aiyuk projects well. Deebo Samuel projects well. They all project well, but if they all smash, we’re talking about 60 actual points scored. And – oh, by the way – Christian McCaffrey is projected to break the slate.
The team that breaks the most slates is the Dolphins, but Vegas has them with an off-week, implied for only 21.5 points against a staunch defense and without Jaylen Waddle. The Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill stack isn’t stupid because it’s a sub-1% stack with dynamics, but we can simply just one-off Hill in the 5-8% range.
Without Waddle, Hill is projected as the runaway best WR on the slate. In his last nine full games, he’s seen 14, 5, 7, 12, 11, 10, 13, 15, and 10 targets. Couple the volume with his 10.5 aDOT and a 100-yard game feels like a relative layup.
Normally, I want a Niner and/or a Dolphin in my single-entry lineups this season. It’d be great to afford McCaffrey and Hill, but the paths to get there are like a bad rash. Targeting one or the other is reasonable because both are just so far ahead of everyone else at their positions. And only McCaffrey on DraftKings seems to be going highly owned.
PROJECTION — Eagles vs. Cardinals
After crossing off the 49ers and Dolphins, the next logical step is to examine the Eagles.
Meh.
The Eagles are a dynamic offense, sure. And their 29.75 implied total is second only to the aforementioned 49ers, yes. But the Cardinals aren’t exactly a terrible defense. I’m not saying this middle-of-the-road defense matters. I’m just saying that stacking the Eagles pays a lot of salary for only a slight ownership discount.
With that said, the Eagles check a lot of boxes.
Jalen Hurts is the top-projected QB on the slate. After Hill, there is a pretty big gap to A.J. Brown, but the gap between Brown and the next guy is pretty wide. DeVonta Smith is hardly a concession off of the chalky Brown, having seen 31 targets over the last four games, and he carries a sexy 11.7 aDOT on the season into this week.
I wanna see the Eagles closer to the 5% range than the 12% range. But I’m expecting them to be in the 12% range come Sunday. If their MME pOWN% dips at all from their current state of 7-8%, I’ll go all-in.
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