Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 2

Single-entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass-multi-entry tournaments, in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.

Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So, we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.

In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.

First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.

NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 2

STACKS

CHALK – Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs

The Bills were terrible in Week 1, but this is pretty simple.

They have the highest implied total on the slate (27.75) and they have a long history of being allergic to running the football. If they’re gonna score a ton and throw a ton, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are in excellent spots to break the slate.

Last week didn’t not-happen, but we might be getting an ownership discount because of tilt bias among the field. This stack will be the most-owned, but remember that the field doesn’t stack enough, so the actual ownership product of Allen-Diggs with Davante Adams could stay low for how bad the Bills looked in Week 1, the fact that Josh Jacobs will catch ownership and negatively correlates with the Bills stack, and the price tags of these three great players.

I’m of the mind that we don’t have to play this, and I’ll say why later in this piece. Frankly, with an 8.5-point spread and the Raiders’ implied total under 20, we don’t need to run it back because the Raiders don’t have to be good for the Bills to keep throwing.

PIVOT – Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce

The Chiefs’ implied total is only 0.25 lower than the Bills.

Patrick Mahomes is a better QB than Allen.

Travis Kelce is projected really closely to Diggs.

Mahomes is currently projected for about half the ownership of Allen.

There is also chatter that the Bills will incorporate the run game a lot more this season through James Cook. I don’t believe it, but the smart football people say so. Whereas the Chiefs are only 3.5-point favorites over the explosive Jags offense.

The Bills stack is great for a damn near guaranteed beatdown, but the Chiefs will be on top of a fast-paced shootout. For the ownership, in single-entry where the enhanced Bills ownership could push Mahomes down to 5%, give me the higher ceiling in the Chiefs stack.

LEVERAGE – Justin Herbert to Mike Williams

I don’t think we need to go here in single-entry fields of, I don’t know, under 2,000 entries. I think we can stick with the Bills or Chiefs and let other people make the mistakes of deviating from the two best stacks or posting cash lineups.

But we do need to get a little more creative in the huge-field, single-entry contests. The Chargers aren’t in a great game environment against the slow Titans, but they’re highly competent, as is reflected in their 24.25 implied total.

Whether Austin Ekeler is in or out, Justin Herbert is gonna get his volume and the Titans aren’t much of a pass defense. Herbert’s efficiency will be highly correlated with Keenan Allen, but he just doesn’t get touchdowns, so I like pivoting over to Mike Williams for leverage and ceiling.

Allen carries the better projection, but Herbert spreads it around enough for Williams to be more than relevant. Williams has the better touchdown upside.

I will note that we should really like the Jaguars, Lions, and Niners too. All three are higher scoring on the week, most notably the Lions, implied at 26.00. The Jags are in that shootout with KC at home. The Niners have a 25.75 implied total against a truly horrid Rams defense. We’ll touch on these teams’ WR1s later in this piece.

QUARTERBACK

BEST NAKED PLAY — Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson is gonna be in this piece just about every week for the “in case you don’t wanna stack” pick of the week at QB. He can throw for 225 and break the slate with his incredible running game and red zone efficiency to Mark Andrews.

He’s gonna project as a top-five QB all the way up to lock without any receiving option projecting for over 15 points. This consistently happens, and I think the field is desensitized to how extraordinary it is for this to happen every week.

LEVERAGE – Anthony Richardson

Let’s talk about Anthony Richardson. On DraftKings, he’s $6,300 and looking at ~8.5% in MME contests, so maybe 5-6% in single-entry. Good stuff, but the projection isn’t as great as all for the words we can say about his fantastic athleticism, crafty rushing skills, and an offense that is pretty adept at isolating and enhancing a QB’s strengths.

But on FanDuel, he’s projected at under 5% because of a kind of silly $7,500 price tag. All of the words we can say about Richardson aren’t worthless, considering that we have no reliable sample of any data to project his performance very well, so the potential for 2% single-entry ownership on Richardson makes him an intriguing naked option on FanDuel.

If enough value opens up at a flex position to where I can spend up to be contrarian on Richardson, I’ll consider it in large fields.

RUNNING BACK

CHALK – James Conner, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Josh Jacbos (FD), and Javonte Williams (DK)

I’m all for using chalk RBs when they’re underpriced. I might not use any of these guys.

James Conner is a good back, but I’m skeptical of how much gets to run. I have the Giants curbstomping the Cardinals. Playing chalk RBs as big dogs with low implied totals makes me just say, “Why?”

This is a great segue to Josh Jacobs. We can’t totally deny the huge projection of Jacobs. But I can’t do it. Not even as leverage against the Bills passing attack.

Joe Mixon is interesting. I like the Bengals for a huge bounce-back, as I have a lot of faith in their general offense. Mixon is the Bengal I’m most likely to play. But I’d rather run back a naked Lamar with a JaMarr Chase or stack the Bengals passing game.

James Cook fits the #smartfootballpeople narrative that the Bills are gonna run more. I don’t buy it, but I prefer Cook as a pivot off of the Bills passing game over running out Jacobs. Cook can break the slate in a blowout. Jacobs, not so much.

We should fully expect Javonte Williams to win this job as the season goes on. Hell, he could do it this week against the terrible Commanders. My issue with Williams isn’t Williams but the pace and the need for the Broncos to use games to develop something of their passing game.

PIVOTS – Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, and Derrick Henry

Christian McCaffrey is still far ahead of everyone in the league as the best fantasy RB. His price tag makes him carry an opportunity cost. It’s really hard to play McCaffrey and spend up for stacks.

The Niners have a 25.75 implied total, and he is a massive part of their offense. He isn’t the cheapest piece of their offense, but we’re getting an ownership discount that could be around 10% in single-entry given there are just so many RBs congregating at the top of the ownership rankings.

The Travis Etienne logic is straightforward: High-scoring, competitive game, and he’s a great talent. With the passing attack getting so much attention, he should be overlooked despite his involvement in the passing game.

The stats from Week 1 are gonna scare people off of the Cowboys. I’m here to tell you that that disasterpiece was indicative of nothing for fantasy. In a competitive game, Mike McCarthy should lean on Tony Pollard as the bellcow he’s projected to be.

And Derrick Henry is just a guy we always have to mention because 30 carries for 180 yards and two touchdowns are always in his back pocket. This matchup against the Chargers will be an elevated pace for the Titans. He should get some good volume. We’d have to go cheap at QB, WR, and TE. There are lot of paths required to get to McCaffrey and Henry, but they can break any slate they’re on with any matchup.

DK VALUE – Joshua Kelley and Rachaad White

With Austin Ekeler out, Joshua Kelley should get a lot of run in an offense that utilizes the RB in so many different ways, especially when in the red zone. Kelley is by far the best point-per-dollar play on DraftKings in a fast-paced game where the Chargers can very well score five touchdowns. Getting the primary back in this atmosphere for $5,000 is high on our list of priorities.

That said, Kelley will be heavy chalk, and there is another route we can go to save money. He’ll be a bit more expensive, but much lower owned.

There was a lot of chatter that Rachaad White was gonna take this job and run with it. He might’ve disappointed with only 49 total yards, but I’m more interested in what the coaching staff did with him — and they did not disappoint.

White had 17 carries and saw two targets while playing 79% of the snaps in Week 1. I don’t think it’s overreacting to say that the primary job is his to lose. Chase Edmonds is there. We know he’s there. The staff knows he’s there. But Edmonds isn’t a timeshare rusher.

In pass-heavy game scripts, sure, I’d say to be careful of Edmonds, but in a slow-paced neutral game script against a bad defense, we should be interested in playing White at $6,200 on DraftKings to save a little money on some volume.

FD VALUE – Jahmyr Gibbs

Kelley is obviously in play on FanDuel too. But at a chalky $6,200 and probably already absorbing ownership at WR, we can spend down to Jahmyr Gibbs in a fantastic scoring atmosphere for only $5,800.

The Lions have the aforementioned high implied total, yet we don’t really wanna play Jared Goff. We might wanna play Amon-Ra St. Brown, but his ownership is high, and there are solid pivots at WR. With that all said, we wanna get in on this game and its 47.5 total in the Detroit dome where scoring just magically happens a lot.

Gibbs only saw nine opportunities in Week 1 to the 21 of David Montgomery, but Montgomery saw zero targets to Gibbs’ two. St. Brown is the man here, but the Lions don’t really have a solid WR2 option. Gibbs is likely to become the secondary receiving option in this offense eventually, and I wanna pay to find out on the back end before we see it. He’ll be overpriced after we see it.

WIDE RECEIVER

CHALK — Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown

Diggs is gonna be chalk and we already covered him. The question is, “Do we play Diggs in a Mahomes-Kelce stack as a one-off?” I’m leaning no because if he smashes his salary, the Allen-Diggs stack is gonna beat us anyway.

Calvin Ridley can be played any damn way we please. There’s great chemistry between him and Trevor Lawrence – a.k.a. The quarterback is feeding the big dog. Without overreacting to Week 1, we know Lawrence and Ridley’s talent. The question would really just be whether or not Lawrence would treat him as an alpha. Ridley saw 11 targets with a 9.1 aDOT in Week 1. You tell me.

Adams is a different story. We should believe in his talent, but the opportunity cost of playing a 20%-owned (in single-entry) WR with a crappy QB as a road underdog has me off of this play. I’d rather talk to my wife on a Sunday afternoon than sweat Jimmy Garoppolo.

St. Brown projects as well as anyone with a ceiling that rivals Diggs. Goff doesn’t have to break the slate for St. Brown to do so- he’s an excellent spend-up, high-owned raw points one-off. Again, this game environment is the nuts, and he should be the one who benefits the most. Goff loves throwing to this man, and we should love that.

PIVOT – Deebo Samuel

A near-26 implied total for the Niners. Something’s gotta come from the air. Brandon Aiyuk is there and that’s scary, but Deebo Samuel is the best receiver in this offense, they use him from the backfield to the deep field, he’s underpriced, and his ownership should fall under 10%.

Brock Purdy had 8.3 IAY/PA despite McCaffrey’s 2.4 aDOT. I’m not saying Purdy has Jay Cutler’s arm strength. Just that this isn’t a Checkdown Charlie we’re dealing with.

LEVERAGE – DK Metcalf

On the other side of this game in Detroit is the DK Metcalf. The Seahawks defense sucks, and it’s more relevant for Metcalf’s production than St. Brown’s in that St. Brown is gonna get his no matter what. The Seattle defense not giving its offense the lead in order to run the football playing soundly into Metcalf’s hands.

There’s really nothing to dislike about Metcalf. He’s a specimen with a strong football IQ. He has a solid QB. He should be down in this fast-paced dome game. He’s fairly priced on both sites. No one’s gonna play him.

Before deciding on my stack, I might just start my single-entry lineup with Metcalf.

TIGHT END

CHALK – Zach Ertz

When a cheap TE gets double-digit targets in Week 1, he’s chalky in Week 2. Ertz is fine, but there’s a limit to how much ownership I absorb in a lineup. I’m not wasting that capital on a Cardinal.

PIVOT – Mark Andrews

If Mark Andrews plays, his ownership won’t reflect his talent. It’s that simple.

The Ravens don’t have much of an aerial assault, and we should stress that this is by design and hoping for much else on most weeks is foolish.

With all of that said, it’s about time that we talk about the Bengals in a rebound game from a throttling. Vegas has this total at 46.5 but only a 3.0-point spread in favor for the Bengals at home. Add the subtraction of J.K. Dobbins from the offense and we’re talking about what could be a – relative to past Ravens letdowns – pass-heavy game script.

My lean is that this is a Lamar-heavy game script. But he has a knack for finding the red zone, and Andrews gets himself open in the red zone. When he doesn’t, Lamar throws him open.

There will be points scored in this game, and the Ravens just don’t have a wealth of options to score points.

LEVERAGE – Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts

Daniel Jones is projecting well in some circles. I simultaneously believe while hating the Giants’ WR corps because they’re so flaccid. With this “ball’s gotta go somewhere” approach, Darren Waller could have one of his target monster games that breaks the slate at 1% ownership.

Kyle Pitts is usually a trap, but the touchdown regression fairy has to sprinkle some sexy dust on him at some point. The Falcons have zero interest in throwing the football and Drake London is very much present. But Pitts is the talent, and points will be scored. Chances are it’s the Atlanta running game winning this affair, but I like a 1% bet on Pitts if we can’t afford Andrews or Waller.

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