NFL DFS Week 1: Fantasy Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
NFL DFS season is heating up as Week 1 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
We made it! After months of coaching and player moves, injuries, training camp videos, pre-season speculation, and everything else the NFL offseason throws at us, it’s finally time for some real football and an awesome week 1 NFL DFS slate. Week 1 is always the most interesting to me, as ownership is usually all over the place as we are still unsure on usage distribution of some teams’ backfields, along with how good all the rookies will actually be once they hit the big stage. Salaries are usually the softest early in the season, as DFS sites have to put out their best guess on a lot of unknowns before they have some real data to plug into the pricing algorithm. There are plenty of players I’m already eyeing just based on their matchup or cheap salaries, so let’s look at how DraftKings and FanDuel are shaping up this week.
Top Week 1 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings
DraftKings did a pretty good job as far as pricing goes, as the elite players are expensive enough to force you to find other value plays, but they’re still not as pricey as most will end up being after a few weeks. This is especially true at RB and WR, as none are above $8,800, which will absolutely not be the case most weeks.
Not having Kelce on this slate will also put a lot more ownership on the high priced players at other positions, since only three TEs are even above $5k to choose from.
The Commanders defense at $2,800 will likely be one of the highest owned plays in cash games, as they’re facing an Arizona team with the lowest team total of the week, and should be closer to $4k in this matchup. Overall you can build some super high-upside lineups if you go cheap at TE and a couple RB/WR spots, so let’s check out a few picks standing out to me as top plays.
Deebo Samuel ($5,500)
The San Francisco 49ers head to Pittsburgh in one of the closer projected spreads of the week, so we should see a very competitive game. There have been all kinds of reports that Deebo Samuel worked hard on his fitness during the pre-training camp break, which is great news as that wasn’t the case last year which led to more injuries for him.
To be able to play a WR1 at this cheap of a price who can literally score any time he touches the ball feels too good to be true, but I will absolutely be taking advantage of it in my main lineup build. Samuel may also be looking at even more targets if Kittle is limited or unable to play with his groin injury.
Aaron Jones ($6,300)
GB/CHI currently has the closest spread of the week (Bears -1), so getting exposure to an almost guaranteed competitive rivalry game is something I like doing for cash games. With Rodgers, Lazard, Cobb, and Tonyan all gone, Aaron Jones is going to have to do even more to carry this offense, and on a full PPR site like DraftKings he should easily pay off his low salary and could obliterate if he gets 7-10 targets and finds the end zone once or twice.
Christian Watson has been ruled out and Romeo Doubs is also in danger of missing this game with a hamstring injury, which would force Jones to have an even bigger role in the passing game, so take advantage of what will likely be one of the cheapest salaries of the season for Jones. Luke Musgrave ($2,900) and Jayden Reed ($3,000) are excellent salary savers with Watson out, and on the Bears side I really like the prices of Khalil Herbert ($5,300) and D.J. Moore ($6,100).
Sam Howell ($4,900)
It’s pretty rare to see a starting QB for under $5k on an offense projected for almost 23 points, especially one with dual-threat upside like Howell. I’m always looking for a cash game QB that can score fantasy points with his arm and his legs, and Howell is by far the cheapest QB on this slate with legit 2+ passing and 1+ rushing TD upside. In Howell’s only start last year (week 18) he flashed that upside throwing for a TD and rushing for a TD against Dallas, so with another offseason under his belt and an even better matchup with Arizona, I’m expecting his floor to be what he put up in that start last year (19+ FP), which is a smash play at his currently salary. If you do end up going with Howell then definitely consider stacking him with Jahan Dotson ($5,000), who could end up being his WR1 if McLaurin ends up sitting with his toe injury, and using both for under $10k total salary will really help you load up the studs at other positions.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
Pricing is much tighter on FD compared to DK, as the top two priced RBs and WRs are $9k+, and Mark Andrews is $8k which should bring his ownership down significantly compared to his $6.2k price on DK. The Commanders defense is also priced correctly at $4,900 which is the second highest at the position, so we should see more spread out DST ownership. Sam Howell ($7,100) is still a solid value option but nowhere near the steal he is on DK as he’s only $1k-$2k cheaper than the top QBs on FD. Overall it’s looking like a more balanced approach for FD cash games compared to DK.
Bijan Robinson ($7,800)
Bijan Robinson is the 6th most expensive RB on FD and $1,400 cheaper than McCaffrey, making him a much more attractive p/$ play compared to DK where he’s the 4th most expensive RB and just $700 cheaper than McCaffrey. In a home matchup with Carolina I’m expecting the Falcons to do everything possible to get Bijan a big game and show they made the right pick, and this will almost certainly be the only time we will be able to play him for under $8k. His expected usage in the passing game along with his likely big role on the ground gives him as much upside as any RB on this slate, and for this low of a price I just won’t be fading him in cash games. Aaron Jones ($7,200), Rachaad White ($6,400), and Khalil Herbert ($6,100) are other RBs I’m loving for the price.
DJ Moore ($6,300)
There are so many fantastic WR plays in the $6k-$7k price range and even below $6k, but my favorite cash game play in that range is Moore. I love targeting home teams Week 1 as they just have that extra motivation to play great in the first game in front of their fans, especially players making their debut for a new team like Moore will be. Fields and Moore flashed their big play ability in the pre-season, and Moore saw targets from a wide range of places, and like Deebo Samuel he’s someone that can score any time he touches the ball with his post-catch speed and agility. I like having at least one piece of this Bears offense in cash games be it Fields ($8,300), Herbert ($6,100), or Moore ($6,300), and if you only go with one I think Moore brings the most upside at a great price.
Luke Musgrave ($4,500)
Mark Andrews is the clear top TE play if you have the salary to fit him, but if you would rather spend up at other positions and “punt” the TE spot, Luke Musgrave is my top pick. At pretty much minimum price, Musgrave will open the year as Green Bay’s top tight end with Tonyan out of the picture, and he will be immediately pressed into extra targets with Watson out and potentially Doubs too. We should see a pretty narrow target tree this week for Jordan Love between Jones, Doubs (if active), Reed, and Musgrave, so getting a TE for this cheap who should see at least 5-8 targets is a great way to start a cash game lineup and fit in more elite plays.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 1
Make sure to check out our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to get a great look at even more top projected plays. It is by far the best place to build a large number of lineups quickly using your personalized build rules, ownership preferences, and stacks you want covered. You can also look at projected ownership to help you decide between players if you’d rather get leverage on the field with someone likely to see much lower ownership than similar plays at his position or price point.
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