NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 9 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 9 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 9 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Jalen Hurts ($9,000) – 22.25%
- Lamar Jackson ($8,600) – 20.91%
- Josh Jacobs ($7,500) – 23.36%
- Bijan Robinson ($7,100) – 22.21%
- A.J. Brown ($9,000) – 29.07%
Week 9 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
The Field is Paying Up for Chalk
Every place we go, we hear the same thing: that this slate is ugly. Whether or not that’s true, we only care about the perception of the slate and what that means for the psychology of the field when we’re talking ownership.
The reaction to an ugly slate is largely to pick a spot or two we really like and jam it in hard because the great spots are far and few in between.
This is faulty reasoning behind losing execution.
If we overhaul on the best situations when those situations aren’t great, we’re relying heavily on bad situations. We’ll get too much clumping in MME. And we’ll be too chalky in single-entry and small fields. Because we should remember that on a so-called ugly slate, there aren’t many great situations to like, so our targets will be common targets, as the field is seeing the same stuff we’re seeing.
It’s one thing to chalk it up with a $5,500 RB and another to do so with a $7,500 RB, let alone and $9,000 QB with his $9,000 WR. Ownership is a cost, therefore, we should be cautious when we spend up for chalk.
Everyone is telling us to go hard on a few situations and the ownership is reflecting that approach. Another way to approach this slate is to cross off those “best spots” and play the third- and fourth-best situations at a fraction of the ownership because there isn’t a world of difference between Bijan Robinson and D’Andre Swift or A.J. Brown and Ceedee Lamb or even C.J. Stroud and Jaren Hall, when we factor in ownership.
Sure, two 1.5 median points between Brown and Lamb isn’t nothing, but Brown is 29.07% and Lamb is at 13.04%. This logic can be applied throughout the player pool on a week when we’re stepping out of our comfort zones anyway. Might as well do so with leverage.
Getting Ignored
We don’t know if Jaren Hall is any good, but he’s projecting well at only 1.65% — 7th in median and 4th in ceiling — and only $6,300. It doesn’t feel good, but flush your feelings for a minute and take another wide-angle look at the slate. Nothing feels good.
In October, Gus Edwards averaged 16.6 opportunities per game. In the Ravens last four wins, he saw 18, 17, 15, and 21 opportunities. As 5.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks, he should see a lot of volume and serve as a direct pivot off of Lamar Jackson chalk. His current pOWN% is only 3.18% because he isn’t cheap, but he isn’t overpriced, either.
The Rams WRs — Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua — are both currently coming in at under 10% pOWN%. Matthew Stafford might be broken. Hell, Matthew Stafford might not play, but two talented WRs are coming in low-owned on a slate where there are no great situations.
Defense Doesn’t Have to Be Hard
The Ravens, Falcons, Saints, and Browns are all currently at double-digit pOWN%, with the Panthers coming in around 9.5%. On an ugly slate, almost every defense is in play. Don’t box yourself into the smashiest of smashy plays simply because it’s such a great smash spot with DST. The Rams are 3.05% against the Packers, the Cardinals are 4.88% against the Browns, and the Vikings are 3.30% against the Falcons. If there are plenty of terrible spots to not wanna play in our DFS lineups, there has to be a ton of great places to save on salary and ownership on DST.