NFL DFS WR/CB Matchups: Week 10
Wide receiver cornerback matchups are hardly the gospel for daily fantasy sports on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Every situation is different and they haven’t always been used optimally over the years. That said, there are still situations on the extremes where we may want to target (or avoid) a player based on their direct opposition on defense. Each week we create a WR vs. CB Matchup Chart to help us bring extreme matchups to the surface. We will now dive deep into the matchups for daily fantasy football and see who we will need to consider adjusting our projections and projected ownership for in this upcoming slate.
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NFL DFS WR vs. CB Matchups for Week 10
Jerry Jeudy
Likely CB: Nevin Lawson
WR Rating: 67.00
CB Rating: 52.61
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 0.86
CB QB Rating Allowed: 115.63
Let’s see here. Jeudy has the 11th highest WR Rating on the slate, while Lawson has the 16th worst CB Rating. The net result is a 14.39 Matchup Rating that has Jeudy leading the entire slate.
Besides the relative gap in skills here, Jeudy also appears to be getting an edge from his height advantage. He is 6’1”, while Lawson just 5’9”. There are only a handful of matchups on the slate that represent a bigger disparity in height (that favor the WR) than what Jeudy has over Lawson.
So if Jeudy sees the type of volume he has been seeing lately, he could be in store for another monster fantasy performance. With the Broncos playing from behind a lot in the past two games, Jeudy has racked up a whopping 24 targets in total in that span. He capitalized in a big way in Week 9 against the Falcons, hauling in seven catches for 125 yards and a score. I’d say those 28.5 DraftKings points easily paid off a $4,700 price tag, wouldn’t you?
It remains to be seen if Jeudy can have a repeat performance, but the macro matchup against Lawson should certainly help. However, the price tag on DraftKings ($5,600) increased quite a bit after that big game last week.
Cooper Kupp
Likely CB: Tre Flowers
WR Rating: 63.76
CB Rating: 49.89
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.28
CB QB Rating Allowed: 109.58
I don’t know precisely what the secret sauce is that spits out these CB Ratings, but it shouldn’t come as much surprise that a Seahawks cornerback is on the losing end of the second best matchup for a WR on the slate. And spoiler alert, there might be another one next!
For Flowers specifically, he checks in with the ninth worst CB Rating on the slate. Is it him being bad that has lead to the Seahawks pass defense being so bad? Or has the Seahawks pass defense been so bad that it then reflects poorly on Flowers?
I don’t know the answer to that exactly, but I also don’t think it really matters. Because we know this matchup is elite no matter which way you slice it. As everyone probably knows by now, the Seahawks allow more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the league. And it’s also not particularly close.
With Kupp having the slightly more favorable macro matchup—and also leading this team in market share of targets by a wide margin—he will be the place you want to start if choosing just one Rams pass-catcher. But let’s not forget about the other guy either…
Robert Woods
Likely CB: Shaquill Griffin
WR Rating: 63.65
CB Rating: 51.05
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.39
CB QB Rating Allowed: 109.64
And that other guy is obviously Robert Woods, who checks in with the third best Matchup Rating on the slate. His 12.60 is just slightly behind the 13.87 Matchup Rating that Kupp has.
All of the same things that we just discussed in the Kupp blurb apply here as well. The overall matchup is just as elite as it gets. There are a few things that stood out for Woods when looking at some of the other data in this chart though.
For one, his WR QBRating score (119.7) is extremely higher than Kupp’s (85.8). So if you actually run into the game where Woods dominates the target share, and not Kupp, it could lead to fantasy points at a much higher rate than Kupp would see.
A microcosm of what I am talking about is when you look at their last game, which was in Week 8 against the Dolphins. The Rams fell behind big early on in the game, which forced them to throw a ton. Kupp saw a stupid-high 20 targets, but he hauled in just 11 of them for 110 yards and no touchdowns. Woods, on the other hand, saw just eight targets. But he caught seven of them for 85 yards and a touchdown. The end result was 28.4 DraftKings points for Woods and 25 DraftKings points for Kupp. And Woods saw 12 fewer targets!!!
The other thing I noticed in this chart was that Griffin allows the sixth most yards per route run (1.39). Kupp’s main opposition (Flowers) is a bit behind him at 1.28.
The moral of the story is that both of these Rams wide receivers make for great options. Heck, you and I might make for halfway decent options against this Seahawks pass defense! Just don’t send me over the middle though…I will for sure get alligator arms.