NFL DFS WR/CB Matchups: Week 8
Wide receiver cornerback matchups are hardly the gospel for daily fantasy sports on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Every situation is different and they haven’t always been used optimally over the years. That said, there are still situations on the extremes where we may want to target (or avoid) a player based on their direct opposition on defense. Each week we create a WR vs. CB Matchup Chart to help us bring extreme matchups to the surface. We will now dive deep into the matchups for daily fantasy football and see who we will need to consider adjusting our projections and projected ownership for in this upcoming slate.
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NFL DFS WR vs. CB Matchups for Week 8
Tyreek Hill
Likely CB: Pierre Desir
WR Rating: 67.59
CB Rating: 43.10
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.77
CB QB Rating Allowed: 129.02
Hill has the best Matchup Rating on this week’s report, and a lot of that simply comes down to the fact that Desir is the worst cornerback on the slate according to our RotoGrinders Premium weekly Cornerback Rating. His 43.10 rating is the stone worst on the slate, just slightly ahead/behind (depending on how you look at it!) the 44.85 of Jeff Gladney (that name just sounds like a dude who gets roasted on the regular, by the way).
So while Tyreek has a solid WR Rating in his own right (his 67.59 is within the Top 10 on the slate), this appears to be way more about the bad outweighing the good. The only concern here is that the Chiefs put the hammer down early and often against the hapless Jets with one of their many other options, and then they pull their foot off the gas before Hill can make Desir look silly.
Of course, the flip side is that Mahomes and Tyreek are the ones that connect early and often because of this matchup, and Tyreek heads into halftime with 100+ yards and two scores. With the Chiefs having a team total approaching an absurd 35 points, I’d certainly want to be taking my shots on Tyreek on Sunday. The only question is how many other DFS players feel the exact same way.
Davante Adams
Likely CB: Cameron Dantzler
WR Rating: 77.78
CB Rating: 57.47
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.59
CB QB Rating Allowed: 127.08
While the Hill vs. Desir matchup was more about how bad Desir is, the Adams vs. Dantzler matchup is more about just how freaking good Adams is. His 77.78 WR Rating is the tops on the slate, edging out the 74.20 of Kenny Golladay. Adams also leads the slate in WRYards/Route (3.33), which I’m guessing is factored heavily into why he has the highest WR Rating too.
We certainly don’t need to spend too much time delving into other positives about Adams. In the three full games he has played this season, two of them have been absolute monsters:
- 14 receptions (17 targets), 156 yards, 2 TD in Week 1 against Minnesota
- 13 receptions (16 targets), 196 yards, 2 TD in Week 7 against Houston
He had ‘only’ six receptions for 61 yards in Week 6 against Tampa Bay. But they are the best pass defense in the league, and he was still targeted 10 times.
With Aaron Jones trending towards missing another week, Adams would be a phenomenal play against pretty much any cornerback in the league. The fact that he gets one with a CB Rating in the bottom half of the slate is just icing on the cake.
Keenan Allen
Likely CB: Bryce Callahan
WR Rating: 68.88
CB Rating: 75.24
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 0.63
CB QB Rating Allowed: 62.12
Let me preface this by saying that, without a doubt, I will always put more value into volume and opportunity than I do a matchup. However, if you are looking for reasons to fade highly owned players, this certainly appears to be one.
Our Projected Ownership at the time I am writing this has Allen has the highest owned WR on both FanDuel (26.88%) and DraftKings (24.5%). It shouldn’t really come as a surprise considering that he has a 35.3% market share of targets in the five full games he has played this season (he left early in Week 5 with back spasms). For comparison, the league leader in market share this season is Davante Adams at 32.7%. And yet, Adams is priced at $9,100 FD / $8,800 DK, while Allen is just $7,400 FD / $6,200 DK.
So yes, the chalkiness certainly makes sense. However, whereas the two guys listed above have Matchup Ratings of 24.49 (Hill) and 20.31 (Adams), Allen has a Matchup Rating of negative 6.36. To reiterate, I absolutely put more stock into volume/opportunity, but that is a substantial difference in individual matchup.
So if Callahan is able to make the bulk of Allen’s targets inefficient, then there are clearly paths to Allen failing at high ownership. While Allen is close to a lock in cash games on both sites, these are the types of things you can be analyzing if you are considering a fade/underweight stance in tournaments.