NFL DFS WR/TE Usage: Reviewing Week 8
NFL passing attacks evolve, and stats like targets, air yards, and snap counts rarely stay consistent for an entire season. NFL wide receivers and tight end usage is therefore critical knowledge for our lineup decisions on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to remind ourselves of a few key usage trends from the week that was. We’ll want to understand how it could help us with our NFL projections and projected ownership in the coming weeks.
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Week 8 NFL DFS Wide Receiver and Tight End Targets and Air Yards Report
D.K. Metcalf
NFL Team: Seattle Seahawks
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 96% in Week 8
Team Share of Targets: 41.7% in Week 8
Team Share of Air Yards: 57.5% in Week 8
Week 8 was a further indication of how much the pendulum actually swings between Metcalf and the other Seahawks stud wide receiver, Tyler Lockett, when it comes to the team’s market share of targets.
If you just look at their season averages in that metric, they are neck and neck. Metcalf has the slight edge at 24.7%, while Lockett is barely behind him at 24.6%.
But when you look from a week-to-week basis, things can get pretty extreme one way or the other. That has especially been the case in the last three games. Have a look for yourself.
Week 5 vs. Minnesota: Metcalf, 11 targets; Lockett, 5 targets
Week 7 vs. Arizona: Metcalf, 5 targets; Lockett, 20 targets
Week 8 vs. San Francisco: Metcalf, 15 targets; Lockett, 5 targets
There are other ones in there too, like in Week 3 when Lockett had 13 targets and Metcalf ‘just’ had eight, which would make it four of their past five games that Russ has seemed to lock in one receiver.
This could all very much be random, but it is something to keep an eye on as we head towards the second half of the season. If nothing else, I think this trend will really keep DFS players from wanting to stack all three of them together in the same lineup (especially since they are always so expensive).
Noah Fant
NFL Team: Denver Broncos
Position: TE
Snap Percentage: 78% in Week 8
Team Share of Targets: 23.7% in Week 8
Team Share of Air Yards: 21.3% in Week 8
There was some concern in the DFS industry heading into Week 8 that Fant’s ankle (the injury that caused him to miss Week 6) was bothering him perhaps more than he or the team let on. Even though he led the team in market share of targets in Week 7 (18.4%), he was only able to turn that into three receptions for 38 yards. Heck, there was even some Albert Okwuegbunam talk!
But Week 8 showed us that Fant appears to be past that ankle injury, not to mention that he continues to be a favorite for Drew Lock. Fant was out there for 78% of the snaps against the Chargers, which was right around the mark he saw in those three games before he hurt the ankle (79%). He also saw the second most targets on the team, as his nine were right behind the 10 of Jerry Jeudy.
On tap for Week 9 is one of the best matchups he can get. Not only did Atlanta rank 31st in Pass Defense DVOA heading into Week 8, but they have given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends to date. Fant is just $5,800 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings this week.
Preston Williams
NFL Team: Miami Dolphins
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 90% in Week 8
Team Share of Targets: 22.7% in Week 8
Team Share of Air Yards: 44.9% in Week 8
It is completely possible that we shouldn’t read too much into Miami’s offense from this past Sunday’s game against the Rams. With the Dolphins D/ST scoring two touchdowns in the first half, this game-script got weird fast and it got weird fast.
That being said, I did find it noteworthy that Williams played 90% of the team’s snaps in Week 8. Not only was that his highest since Week 1, but it also led all other wide receivers on the team by a wide margin. DeVante Parker, who was dealing with a groin injury all week, was next at just 59% of the snaps.
Due to that aforementioned game-script, Tua Tagovailoa only had to throw the ball 22 times. Five of those went to Williams, which was second behind the six targets that went to Myles Gaskin. But as has been the case for this team most of the season, Williams did lead the team in air yards and market share of air yards in the game on Sunday.
While I would pretty much always be looking at Williams as a tournament-only guy due to his volatility, he does have some pretty cheap price tags across the industry. For example, he is only $4,100 on DraftKings for this Week 9 matchup against Arizona. If Williams is able to get behind the Cardinals defense for a big score, he could easily pay off this price tag.
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