NFL Draft Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Round 1 (4/25)
What can we expect during the NFL Draft from Dallas Turner, Byron Murphy, and Terrion Arnold? Follow along as Nick Galaida breaks down three of his best bets for Round 1 of the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 25, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks at ScoresandOdds.
NFL Draft Odds & Best Bets — Round 1
On Thursday night, the NFL Draft will begin with the first round. Unlike some years when the top few draft picks are a near certainty, there is still some debate as to what order Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., and others will be selected.
The first round of the draft will begin at 8:00 PM ET on April 25th. ESPN, ABC, and NFL Network will each have opening round coverage for fans.
If looking to wager on the player prop market to make the event slightly more interesting, we have three leans for Round 1 of this year’s NFL Draft!
Dallas Turner UNDER 9.5 Draft Position (+130), DraftKings
According to Pro Football Focus, Dallas Turner finished 2023 ranked in the 89th percentile in Pass-Rush win% and 83rd percentile in Run-Defense grade, making him one of the more well-rounded defensive players entering the draft.
Turner played over 600 snaps for Alabama each of the last two seasons, finishing with a career-best 11 sacks in 2023. Scouting reports have commended him for his steady improvement year over year – something that points to a strong work ethic, which figures to translate well to the NFL.
Also in his favor is the fact that Turner is only going to be 21 years old on draft day. It’s not often that well-rounded, young defensive players out of Alabama fall too far in the first round. At plus money, this is a worthwhile risk.
Byron Murphy UNDER 13.5 Draft Position (-205), DraftKings
Byron Murphy might be the best defender in this year’s draft class. In 2023 at Texas, Murphy ranked in the 98th percentile in Pass-Rush Win% and 90th percentile in Run-Stop%, per Pro Football Focus. Adding to his draft stock is the fact that he’s only 21 years old and seemingly still getting better.
After tallying only 3 sacks across ~700 snaps in 2021 and 2022, Murphy had 6 sacks on 438 snaps in 2023. He’s an extremely talented player who is likely to make an immediate impact at the next level. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him be the first defensive player off of the board on Thursday; it would be a shock if he fell below pick #13.
Terrion Arnold UNDER 15.5 Draft Position (-105), DraftKings
Terrion Arnold doesn’t have as much as experience as some pundits would like for a likely first-round draft selection, but what we saw from him in 2023 offers teams plenty of upside if they are willing to take a chance on him early on Thursday.
According to Pro Football Focus, Arnold finished last season ranked in the 95th percentile or better in coverage grade as a slot cornerback and on the outside. He finished in the 97th percentile in coverage grade when the quarterback had a clean pocket.
There are definitely some concerns related to relative lack of experience, but he’s an extremely athletic player who is still only 21 years old. Arnold has a profile that should be appealing to any team looking to improve their secondary.
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