NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 10
Last weekend, we hit each of our top six confidence picks and finished 9-5 overall, giving us a 20-10 record across the last two weeks. We have hit each of our last 12 picks ranked in our top-six overall for confidence purposes. In Week 10, the action begins with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Sunday’s 12-game slate will conclude with a matchup between the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders. Monday Night Football will feature Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Below, we have our Week 10 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 10 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 10 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Detroit Lions
8. New York Jets
9. Tennessee Titans
10. New Orleans Saints
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Carolina Panthers
14. Indianapolis Colts
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 10
Cowboys (vs. Giants)
Are you ready for the Tommy DeVito experience this weekend? No? Well, neither are the New York Giants. According to Jordan Raanan, DeVito will be the first undrafted rookie to start a football game for the Giants in a non-strike game in the common era. DeVito has thrown 27 passes this year and has taken eight sacks. He has completed only 5-of-10 pass attempts when under pressure for 4.4 yards per attempt. Assuming that small sample size has some level of predictive validity, New York’s offense has an extremely low ceiling this weekend against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has been among the best in the league all season in getting after opposing quarterbacks. According to Clevta, home favorites of at least 14 points were 37-4 (90.2% win-rate) from 2018 to 2022 with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points. This game is likely to be a landslide.
Seahawks (vs. Commanders)
Looking back at last week’s action, it is incredibly difficult to figure out how the New England Patriots managed only 17 points against the Washington Commanders. Washington had the fifth-worst defensive pressure rate of any NFL team last weekend, meaning that Mac Jones had a clean pocket on 36 of his 46 dropbacks for the afternoon. Jones had a costly interception on New England’s final drive of the game after he had led the offense into Washington territory. Simply, Washington traded away two of their top pass rushers at the trade deadline, and they have very few options to make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks heading into the back-nine of the NFL regular season. Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks were embarrassed in Week 9, but they were embarrassed by arguably the best team in the league. This is a great rebound spot for the Seahawks this weekend.
Bengals (vs. Texans)
C.J. Stroud has been the talk of the league all week after throwing for 470 passing yards in a thrilling victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nevertheless, he is likely to experience significant regression in Week 10 facing a much better defense. The Cincinnati Bengals have finished in the top-six in defensive pressure rate in each of the last three weeks that they had a game, and they have not finished outside of the top-15 in defensive pressure rate since Week 2. Stroud ranks 2nd in passer rating, 2nd in yards per attempt, and 2nd in turnover-worthy play percentage from a clean pocket this year, but only 18th in passer rating, 24th in yards per attempt, and 19th in turnover-worthy play percentage when under pressure, according to PFF. The Bengals are the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup regardless of whether Ja’Marr Chase is on the field.
Steelers (vs. Packers)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are undeniably a fraudulent football team, but they might not get exposed for another week. In Week 10, they will welcome Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers to town. Love has been one of the league’s least productive quarterbacks under pressure this fall, ranking 25th out of 28 qualified signal callers in passer rating and 19th in yards per attempt in such situations. The Pittsburgh Steelers had the sixth-best defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL in Week 9, and they get to host the Packers this weekend rather than traveling to Lambeau Field. Pittsburgh has been miles better than Green Bay in terms of DVOA, and the eye test is just as much in favor of Pittsburgh. This game is likely to be ugly, but Pittsburgh has enough talent to come away with a win here.
Bills (vs. Broncos)
Home favorites of between 6-8 points went 122-48 (71.8% win-rate) straight up from 2018 to 2022, which makes the Buffalo Bills a necessary inclusion in the top-five in confidence pools this week based on macro trends alone. However, there are obvious red flags here that keep them from being higher in these rankings. Since Week 5, Buffalo’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate despite having played the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in that stretch – each of which ranks 23rd or worse in offensive yards per play in 2023. Losing linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones has completely changed the trajectory of Buffalo’s season. Facing a Denver Broncos team coming off of a bye week, Buffalo is more vulnerable here than the market is suggesting.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6