NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 15
Last week, we had our worst record in this article since its inception three years ago – going 5-10 overall. If there is any silver lining, we are still 32-8 in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last seven weeks.
Tonight, Week 15 of the NFL season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Chargers and Raiders as part of a 16-game slate this week.
Below, we have our Week 15 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 15 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 15 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Miami Dolphins
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Cleveland Browns
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Detroit Lions
14. Carolina Panthers
15. Minnesota Vikings
16. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 15
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
At this point in the season, it is abundantly clear that there is only one NFL team that we can trust in any situation – the San Francisco 49ers. Brock Purdy and company suffered through a three-game losing streak heading into their bye week, but they have been spotless in five games prior to that point and in five games since returning to action in Week 10. Across their last five games, the 49ers rank 1st in offensive EPA/play and 1st in offensive success rate. They rank 9th in defensive EPA/play and 7th in success rate during that same stretch. The Arizona Cardinals rank 17th in offensive EPA/play, 18th in offensive success rate, 25th in defensive EPA/play, and 32nd in defensive success rate since Week 10. This is a lopsided matchup, and we should see that manifest itself on the field this weekend.
Rams (vs. Commanders)
It’s not often that a team blatantly tanks in front of the public eye, but the Commanders seemingly have no interest in purchasing curtains or anything else to hide what is going on in their building. Since Week 10, Washington is 0-4 with a negative 80-point differential. They have been outgained by at least 100 yards twice in that span and by at least 50 yards in three of those games. The Rams have quietly been a top-five offensive team since Week 10 while simultaneously ranking in the top-half of the league in most defensive metrics. There is a reason that Matthew Stafford and company are favored by a touchdown in this spot.
Chiefs (vs. Patriots)
The sky is falling in Kansas City right now, or at least that is what it feels like if you are watching the national media cover the team. Despite the panic surrounding the team, they still own sole possession of first place in their division at 8-5, and they are only a few plays away from earning a completely different public perception heading into Week 15. The Chiefs lost in Week 1 by one point because Chris Jones was holding out and the team’s wide receivers had numerous dropped passes. Patrick Mahomes had a severe case of the flu in Week 8 when the team lost to the Broncos on the road. Kansas City was a dropped pass away from beating the Eagles in Week 11 and they were an offsides penalty away from winning against the Bills in Week 14. Wins are wins and losses are losses – obviously. However, not all wins and losses should be weighted equally – which should also be obvious. This is a prime bounce back spot for Andy Reid and his team facing a significantly less talented Patriots team this weekend.
Dolphins (vs. Jets)
Depending on how the final injury report shakes out here, it might be worth moving the Dolphins down in confidence pools this week. As of this writing, running back De’Von Achane, offensive linemen Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hunt, safety DeShon Elliott, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill have not practiced this week for Miami. There are another seven players who were limited on Thursday, which does not include key players currently on injured reserve. With that being said, the Jets are also significantly banged up, especially on the offensive line, and they still have Zach Wilson at quarterback. The Dolphins are rightfully favored here, but this is far from a slam dunk.
Bills (vs. Cowboys)
Dallas is 10-3 this season, but there are strong arguments to be made that they still have not beaten a good football team. The Cowboys wins have come against the Giants, Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams, Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, and Eagles – only one of which is currently in a playoff position. Even that win against the Eagles comes with the caveat that the Cowboys lost to them on the road earlier in the season. In contrast, Buffalo throttled Miami in Week 4 and defeated Kansas City at Arrowhead in Week 14. Playing in front of their home fans with the season on the line, Josh Allen and company are deserving favorites here.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 7-6
- Week 14: 5-10
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Image Credit: Getty Images