NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 16
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into 2022 – posting a 144-78-2 (64.9%) record through 15 weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 212-102-2 (67.5%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we had double-digit victories for the fourth time in five weeks. In Week 13, we were burned by the final injury report in a couple of places, but still managed to hit each of our top six confidence plays. The positive momentum carried over to Week 14, when we hit six of our top seven confidence picks once again, with our lone loss being a fourth quarter collapse by the Las Vegas Raiders. In Week 15, we tallied our eight double-digit victory week of the season, going 11-5. Let’s take a look at Week 16!
2022 NFL Pick’em
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 16 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 16 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. New York Jets
10. Cleveland Browns
11. Los Angeles Chargers
12. Las Vegas Raiders
13. Denver Broncos
14. Philadelphia Eagles
15. Detroit Lions
16. Tennessee Titans
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 16
Bills (vs. Bears)
Three weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills returned defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and defensive end Greg Rousseau to the field, and stifled the New England Patriots offense on prime time television, holding them to 10 points on Thursday Night Football. In Week 14, Buffalo’s defense held the New York Jets to only 12 points, further indicating that their defense is among the best in the entire league, even without Von Miller on the field. Since recovering from an elbow injury suffered in early November, Josh Allen has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio as he has continued to propel the AFC’s second-highest scoring offense. During the Bills’ five-game winning streak, this group ranks 8th in offensive EPA/play. In that same stretch of action, the Chicago Bears rank 18th in offensive EPA/play and 28th in defensive EPA/play. Entering this weekend, Chicago has listed both of their starting guards, Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair as doubtful. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears will also be without one of the premier safeties in the NFL, Eddie Jackson, who was placed on injured reserve after Week 12. The Bills are healthier and more talented heading into this matchup, which should lead to a victory when the dust settles in the Windy City in Week 16.
Chiefs (vs. Seahawks)
The Kansas City Chiefs, known for playing with their food, once again gave pick’em participants a scare in Week 15 when they were pushed to overtime against the Houston Texans before emerging victorious by a final score of 30-24 after a walk-off 26-yard touchdown run by Jerick McKinnon. Nevertheless, the Chiefs enter play in Week 16 with an 11-3 record, with zero losses by more than four points in 2022. Since losing at home to the Bills in Week 6, the Chiefs are 7-1 overall, with their lone defeat coming by three points against the Cincinnati Bengals. In that span, Kansas City leads the NFL in offensive EPA/play and ranks better than league average in defensive EPA/play as well. This weekend, the Chiefs should be able to secure another victory, facing a Seattle Seahawks team that will be missing a number of key players. Per Pro Football Focus, safety Ryan Neal leads all safeties this fall in coverage grade, but he will be on the sidelines this weekend with a knee injury. Wide receiver Tyler Lockett and defensive tackle Al Woods have also been ruled out for this contest. Kansas City is far more talented and much healthier than their counterparts in this spot, making them a safe play as a high-confidence selection this weekend.
49ers (vs. Commanders)
The San Francisco 49ers are dealing with a number of injuries to key players ahead of their Saturday showdown against the Washington Commanders, but it seems likely that the majority of their injured players will be good-to-go on Saturday. Since taking over as the starting quarterback for San Francisco, Brock Purdy has been excellent – posting a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio as the 49ers have run their current winning streak to seven games. Washington has won six of their last nine contests, but it is worth noting that they have only one victory against a playoff-bound team in that time period. Expect the 49ers to dominate the line of scrimmage in this one, and for this group to do enough to win their eighth consecutive contest.
Vikings (vs. Giants)
The Minnesota Vikings enter play tied for the second-best record in the NFL through the first 15 weeks of the season, but their advanced metrics suggest a much less dominant team, which is why they are only a field goal favorite against the New York Giants this weekend. After 14 games, Minnesota ranks only 18th in offensive EPA/play and 13th in defensive EPA/play, suggesting that they are due for negative regression sooner rather than later. Yet, it is worth noting that the Vikings rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play in the fourth quarter of games in 2022, which lends credibility to the argument that this team is simply unfocused until the game is on the line and they are forced to play better football. The New York Giants have only two wins since their Week 9 bye – one against the hapless Houston Texans and another against the Washington Commanders. Minnesota has six wins this season against teams that enter Week 16 with a .500 record or better, which should assuage at least some concerns that they are not as good as their overall record indicates. Do not expect this to be a sweat-free winner, but Minnesota should be able to get the job done here, playing at home against an inferior opponent.
Bengals (vs. Patriots)
Through 14 games this season, Joe Burrow has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks against man coverage. Per Evan Lazar, Burrow ranks third in passing yards per attempt (8.7) and fifth in passer rating (116.2) against man coverage. In addition to their success against man coverage, Burrow has been elite against single-high safety shells, ranking fifth among qualified signal callers with a 104.1 passer rating. Important to note is the fact that the New England Patriots have used single-high shells (cover-1, cover-3) at the highest rate of any team in the league in 2022 (69.7%). Though it stands to reason that Head Coach Bill Belichick will alter the defensive game plan to feature less man coverage and fewer high-shell looks in this matchup, it is doubtful that the Patriots will be able to completely change their defensive identity on a whim heading into Week 16. If there is any cause for concern in this spot, it is that defensive lineman Sam Hubbard, one of the best run defenders in the league, will be on the sidelines for the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday. Still, Cincinnati should be able to score enough points to give themselves a good opportunity to win this football game.
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