NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 16
We promised a bounce-back performance in Week 15 and we delivered – hitting each of our top six confidence picks and 11 of 16 selections overall. Heading into Week 16, we have a 38-8 record in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last eight weeks.
Tonight, Week 16 of the NFL season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Saints and Chargers as part of a 16-game slate this week.
Below, we have our Week 16 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 16 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 16 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Chicago Bears
6. Dallas Cowboys
7. Denver Broncos
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Tennessee Titans
11. Washington Commanders
12. Detroit Lions
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Indianapolis Colts
16. Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 16
Bills (vs. Chargers)
Though the Bills have an 8-6 record this season, there is little doubt that they are one of the premier teams in the NFL. Josh Allen and company endured a rough stretch from Week 5 to Week 11 in the immediate aftermath of losing a pair of their most important defensive players, but the team has rebounded on that side of the ball in recent weeks, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA across their last four contests. This weekend, the Chargers will once again be without star wide receiver Keenan Allen and their top pass rusher, Joey Bosa, meaning that they will be limited on both sides of the ball. Even more limiting is the fact that Easton Stick will be under center for Los Angeles again in Week 16. During the last two weeks, Stick ranks 28th out of 29 qualified signal callers in EPA/play. The Chargers are not as bad as their 42-point loss to the Raiders would suggest, but neither are they good enough to upset a Bills team playing in desperation mode in this matchup.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
Along a similar vein, the Raiders have played well under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but they are nowhere near as talented as their 63-21 victory last Thursday would lead people to believe. In six games since Josh McDaniels was fired, the Raiders are 3-3, with wins against the Giants, Jets, and Chargers – three of the worst teams in the NFL. Facing three teams with a winning record during that stretch, the Raiders are 0-3 and averaging only 10 points scored per game. The media has certainly made it seem as though the kingdom is collapsing in Kansas City, but Patrick Mahomes and company still rank 6th in DVOA since Week 12, making them deserving favorites in this spot. Trust them to get the job done on their home field.
Eagles (vs. Giants)
All season, we had been screaming that the Eagles were due for negative regression due to the fact that they were consistently being out-gained by their opponents on a weekly basis. Regression has hit them hard, with three consecutive losses, two of which came by 20 points or more. Nevertheless, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are still better than Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The Eagles are nowhere near a Super Bowl contender, but they still rank near the middle of the pack in DVOA across the last four weeks while the Giants rank 27th in DVOA since Week 12. Playing at home against a New York team that is weak at the line of scrimmage, Philadelphia should be able to get back into the win column.
Rams (vs. Saints)
If not for a dreadful special teams unit, Sean McVay might have more people subscribing to the notion that the Rams are a legitimate contender in the NFC. Regardless, Los Angeles is significantly better than New Orleans at this point in the season by virtue of their health alone. Entering play on Thursday, the Saints are missing three defensive starters and a starting offensive lineman. Their precarious cap situation means that they lack quality depth behind those players, which is a major concern in a matchup against a surging Rams offense. Since Kyren Williams returned from injury in Week 12, the Rams rank 2nd in offensive EPA/play, 4th in offensive success rate, and 2nd in offensive DVOA. New Orleans is likely to have a hard time keeping pace on a short week, especially playing on the road.
Bears (vs. Cardinals)
Perhaps surprising to many people, this ranking has more to do with the Bears than it does with the ineptitude of the Cardinals. Since Week 12, Chicago ranks 5th in overall DVOA and leads the NFL in defensive DVOA. During that stretch, the Bears’ defense also leads the league in EPA/play, and they rank 3rd in success rate. The Cardinals are on the other end of the spectrum defensively, ranking 32nd in DVOA, 31st in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate during that stretch. There is a strong argument to be made that Justin Fields and the Bears should be even larger favorites in this matchup.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 7-6
- Week 14: 5-10
- Week 15: 11-5
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Image Credit: Getty Images