NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 17
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into 2022 – posting a 152-86-2 (64.9%) record through 15 weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 220-110-2 (67.5%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we had double-digit victories for the fourth time in five weeks. In Week 13, we were burned by the final injury report in a couple of places, but still managed to hit each of our top six confidence plays. The positive momentum carried over to Week 14, when we hit six of our top seven confidence picks once again, with our lone loss being a fourth quarter collapse by the Las Vegas Raiders. In Week 15, we tallied our eight double-digit victory week of the season, going 11-5. In Week 16, we finished only 8-8 overall, but we salvaged our week by hitting seven of our top-eight confidence plays. Heading into Week 17, we have a laundry list of injuries of which to keep tabs, but we are ready for the challenge!
2022 NFL Pick’em
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 17 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 17 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Detroit Lions
7. New England Patriots
8. New York Giants
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Carolina Panthers
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Minnesota Vikings
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. New York Jets
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Buffalo Bills
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 17
Cowboys (vs. Titans)
As we predicted earlier in the week in our Thursday Night Football preview for RotoGrinders, the Tennessee Titans will be without the vast majority of their key players for this contest. On the final injury report of the week, linebackers Dylan Cole, Zach Cunningham, and Bud Dupree, safety Amani Hooker, defensive back Josh Thompson, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, offensive tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have each been ruled out. Linebacker Denico Autry, cornerback Kristian Fulton, and running back Derrick Henry are each listed as doubtful. This laundry list of names includes Tennessee’s leading passer, one of the league’s most feared running backs, and the team’s top-two pass-rushers.
Since Dak Prescott returned to the field in Week 7, the Dallas Cowboys are 7-2 overall, with both of their losses coming on the road in overtime against teams that are still fighting for a postseason berth this fall. In those nine games, the Cowboys rank 4th in offensive EPA and 3rd in defensive EPA, making them one of the most well-balanced teams in the NFL. In a game that Tennessee is evidently not trying to win, Dallas should have little trouble securing a comfortable victory.
Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
The Kansas City Chiefs have a reputation for playing with their food, but their inability to play at a high level for the full 60 minutes rarely hurts them in the win column. On the season, the Chiefs have three losses, none of which have come by more than four points. Since losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, Kansas City is 8-1 overall, with their lone defeat coming on the road by three points against the Cincinnati Bengals. In that span, the Chiefs lead the NFL in offensive EPA and rank better than league average on the defensive side of the ball as well. This weekend, Patrick Mahomes and company have a favorable matchup against a Denver Broncos team that fired their head coach earlier this week and is 1-6 since their Week 9 bye. During that time period, Denver ranks 28th in offensive EPA and 22nd in defensive EPA, making them the inferior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Expect Kansas City to take care of business in this spot as they continue their fight for home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
49ers (vs. Raiders)
On Wednesday, Josh McDaniels announced that the Las Vegas Raiders will start Jarrett Stidham at quarterback for the final two games of the regular season. In limited playing time since being drafted in 2019, Stidham is 32-for-61 with two touchdowns and four interceptions in 11 games played. Forced into action in Week 8 earlier this season, Stidham completed 8-of-13 pass attempts in a 24-0 loss against the New Orleans Saints. Though he performed well from a clean pocket, Stidham was 0-3 when under pressure and 1-4 on pass attempts when blitzed. Facing a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks as the sixth-most effective pass rush in 2022, the young quarterback could have an extremely difficult time generating positive results. Though Derek Carr has been blamed for the majority of Las Vegas’ struggles this fall, the offensive line ranks 25th in both pressure rate and quarterback hurries allowed, per Tashan Reed. This change at quarterback is less about trying to win a football game and more about trying to evaluate a young player – trust the 49ers to make easy work of an inferior opponent on Sunday.
Eagles (vs. Saints)
Though the absence of Jalen Hurts was certainly noticeable in Week 16, it is evident that the coaching staff trusts Gardner Minshew to operate the vast majority of the offense while he is on the field. Per Next Gen Stats, Minshew completed 11-of-16 pass attempts over 10 air yards for 235 passing yards and a touchdown in last week’s 40-34 loss, and was a perfect 8-for-8 for 96 yards and a touchdown, per Pro Football Focus. At minimum, Philadelphia should have little trouble running the ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in rush EPA since Week 9. Be sure to check the final injury reports before locking-in the Eagles as one of the most confident picks of the week, but it would be surprising to see them get upset here, as they attempt to clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Facing a New Orleans Saints team that could be without two starting offensive linemen and a number of key starters on the defensive side of the ball, Philadelphia should have enough firepower to get the job done in this spot at home.
Chargers (vs. Rams)
There are some concerns with the Los Angeles Chargers heading into the weekend, with running back Austin Ekeler and safety Derwin James Jr. both listed as limited practice participants on Thursday. Yet, the Chargers are still the far superior team in this matchup with the Los Angeles Rams – a team that is missing starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, multiple starting offensive lineman, defensive end A’Shawn Robinson, and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Though the Chargers have not made anything look easy during their three-game winning streak, they have still proven themselves capable of beating weaker competition and capitalizing on matchups in which their opponent is missing several key players. Expect them to win their fourth consecutive game this weekend.
Image Credit: Imagn