NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 2
Last season, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in our weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, selecting a winner for each of the 272 regular season games. We nearly missed perfection in Week 3, correctly selecting 15 of the 16 contests, and finished the year strong – going 68-24 (73.4%) from Week 13 to Week 18.
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, we hope to secure our eighth consecutive week with 10-plus correct picks in this article!
2021 NFL Pick’em selections!
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks. Remember, Also, don’t miss my Week 2 Survivor Guide to help inform your decision making in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 2 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 2 Selections
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Denver Broncos
6. Los Angeles Rams
7. Washington Commanders
8. Las Vegas Raiders
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Carolina Panthers
11. New Orleans Saints
12. Buffalo Bills
13. Miami Dolphins
14. New England Patriots
15. Indianapolis Colts
16. Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 2
Bengals (vs. Cowboys)
Earlier this week, my co-host Sosa proclaimed on our weekly podcast that “the season is over for the Dallas Cowboys,” and I couldn’t agree more. Coming into the year, it was apparent that Dallas was sorely lacking talent in the wide receiver room behind CeeDee Lamb. In their season opener, even Lamb struggled to produce – raising additional concerns about this unit’s ability to make plays down-the-field going forward. Paying big-money to a running-back with nearly 2,000 carries on his body since his freshman campaign at Ohio State has limited the front office’s ability to improve a porous offensive line. Micah Parsons single-handedly kept the Cowboys from getting blown-out in their Week 1 battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, recording two sacks against backup left tackle Josh Wells in the second-half, after Donovan Smith left the game with an elbow injury in the second quarter. Cooper Rush performed poorly after taking over for an injured Dak Prescott late in the game, completing only 7-of-13 pass attempts for 64 yards, and figures to struggle again this weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals. Rush has only one career start under his belt, which came last Halloween against a Minnesota Vikings defense that finished the year ranked 25th in passing yards allowed per play. The Bengals’ secondary, featuring Eli Apple, Chidobe Awuzie, Vonn Bell, and Jessie Bates III, projects as a much more difficult matchup – especially considering the lack of pass-catching options in this Dallas offense compared to when Rush took the field against Minnesota last fall.
Joe Burrow struggled mightily in an overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, throwing a career-worst four interceptions. Still, he showed excellent rapport with Ja’Marr Chase, who totaled 10 receptions and 129 receiving yards, including a game-tying touchdown in the closing seconds of regulation. Perhaps more importantly, Cincinnati managed to run for 133 yards in that game. On Sunday, Cincinnati could once again emphasize the ground-attack against a Dallas defense that allowed 152 rushing yards to the Buccaneers in their opener. The Bengals are the better team on both sides of the ball in this spot – expect them to earn their first victory of 2022.
49ers (vs. Seahawks)
When I wrote last week that it would be surprising to see the San Francisco 49ers get upset against the Chicago Bears, I meant it. However, extremely poor weather conditions that manifested close to kickoff, coupled with an early-game injury to Elijah Mitchell on Sunday created an opportunity for the underdog to emerge victorious. Playing at Levi’s Stadium this weekend, there is once again rain in the forecast, with winds projected around 10 miles-per-hour. Still, it would be nearly impossible to play in field conditions worse than the ones present at Soldier Field in Week 1. The 49ers also have a much easier matchup this weekend, facing a Seattle Seahawks offense that averaged only 4.0 yards-per-carry and threw for only 195 yards against the Denver Broncos this past Monday. Geno Smith connected with Will Dissly on a broken coverage in the opening quarter, but the Seattle offense was otherwise unimpressive – totaling only 10 points across the final 56 minutes of the contest, including zero points and only 44 total yards of offense in the second half. Playing on a short week against a superior opponent, the Seahawks are rightfully big underdogs in this spot. Trey Lance and company still have Super Bowl aspirations, and Seattle is still likely to finish with one of the worst records in the NFL this season. The 49ers are well-positioned to get in the win column in Week 2.
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
“Shockingly, the market is cold on the Kansas City Chiefs to begin the 2022 campaign” is how I began my first paragraph last week, previewing their matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The market is apparently not putting much stock into the Chiefs’ 44-21 beatdown of the Cardinals in Week 1, evident by the fact that they opened as only three-point favorites in Week 2, with the line still being at only (-4) at most retail sportsbooks.
Following the trade of Tyreek Hill and the loss of Tyrann Mathieu in free agency during the offseason, expectations for 2022 were considerably lower for Patrick Mahomes and company relative to past years. However, they shouldn’t have been. Though not sexy, the Chiefs addressed a number of areas of concern during the draft – selecting George Karlaftis in the first round, then adding Bryan Cook in the second round and Leo Chenal in the third round. A year ago, Kansas City was one of the worst defenses in football. The addition of elite young talent made an immediate impact in Week 1, with Karlaftis recording six pressures on only 33 pass-rush snaps, per Pro Football Focus. The absence of Trent McDuffie on Thursday, due to an ankle injury, is worth noting, but Kansas City’s secondary unit remains capable of slowing-down a Los Angeles Chargers passing attack that will be without Keenan Allen.
The Chargers were the preseason media darlings, but only barely held-on to defeat the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, despite Derek Carr playing one of the worst games of his career. Los Angeles had the ball for over 32 minutes against the Raiders, but it is doubtful that the Chargers’ defense will benefit from the same time-of-possession split against a Kansas City offense featuring a much better offensive line compared to Las Vegas. If the Chargers’ defense is forced to be on the field for longer periods of time on Thursday, the likely absence of J.C. Jackson, who had ankle surgery less than a month ago, could expose a weak secondary unit, leading to an abundance of points for the Chiefs. Take the home favorites in this one.
Browns (vs. Jets)
The Cleveland Browns did not have the most attention-grabbing performance as a team in their Week 1 win against the Carolina Panthers, but they proved two important things – 1) their offensive line is elite; 2) their defense is elite. Leading up to the season, I wrote about the glaring deficiencies that Jacoby Brissett brings to this offense, having ranked 20th in QBR out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in a brief stint as the Miami Dolphins’ starting signal caller in 2021. Yet, Brissett’s inadequacies are unlikely to be a major issue for this group early in the year if Cleveland is able to play a similar brand of football to what we saw in their season opener. Against the Panthers, the Browns controlled the ball for over 38 minutes, running for 217 yards and out-snapping their opponent 74-to-50. Facing a New York Jets defensive line featuring three below-average run-defenders – John Franklin-Myers, Sheldon Rankins,and Carl Lawson – Cleveland should once again win the time-of-possession battle, which should keep their defense fresh late into the second-half. Joe Flacco will get the start again for the Jets in Week 2, which further limits the likelihood of explosive plays down-the-field against a strong Browns’ secondary unit. Do not expect Cleveland to win this game by two touchdowns, but their ball-control approach should pair nicely with their elite defense again on Sunday – which should lead to a victory against an inferior team.
Broncos (vs. Texans)
The new-look Denver Broncos dropped a major dud in their season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but bettors should not overreact to the final scoreboard from that matchup. Russell Wilson still threw for 340 yards, and the running back tandem of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams still combined to average 5.2 yards-per-carry on the ground. The Broncos out-gained the Seahawks 433-253 in terms of total yardage, out-first-downed Seattle 18-12 on non-penalties, and controlled the ball for over 33 minutes. Denver was undisciplined in the first-half, extending multiple scoring drives with penalties, and a broken coverage on the first drive of the game led to seven quick points for Will Dissly. Nonetheless, the Broncos held the Seahawks to zero points and only 44 yards of total offense in the second-half, and still managed to have an opportunity to win the game in the closing seconds, despite twice (!!) fumbling on the goal line on Monday. In last week’s Monday Night Football preview, cautioned that a lack of preseason reps and unfamiliarity with new teammates could cause a slow start for Denver. After running 64 plays in Week 1, bettors should expect a much better performance from this group in Week 2 against a Houston Texans team that is not very talented on either side of the ball.
Image Credit: Imagn