NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 1
Last season, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in our weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, selecting a winner for each of the 272 regular season games. We nearly missed perfection in Week 3, correctly selecting 15 of the 16 contests, and finished the year strong – going 68-24 (73.4%) from Week 13 to Week 18.
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we have evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there will not be anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall. Below, we will do our best to navigate the Week 1 chaos as we hope to stay hot from the 2021 NFL Pick’em selections!
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks. Remember, Also, don’t miss my Week 1 Survivor Guide to help inform your decision making in your eliminator pools!
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
NFL Week 1 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 1 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Indianapolis Colts
8. Denver Broncos
9. Minnesota Vikings
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Washington Commanders
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. New York Giants
16. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Week Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 1
Ravens (vs. Jets)
Simply, the Baltimore Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations and the New York Jets have high hopes to avoid finishing in last place in the AFC East for the sixth time in seven years. Lamar Jackson is a legitimate MVP candidate, with a strong offensive line protecting him and no shortage of weapons at the skill positions around him. Rumors that Zach Wilson could be under center for the Jets in this one only further the likelihood that Baltimore will be able to secure a victory in this contest. In his rookie season, Wilson was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the entire NFL. In 13 games, he threw only nine touchdowns against 11 interceptions while completing only 55.6 percent of his pass attempts. Per Pro Football Focus, he was significantly worse than league average from a clean pocket, when under pressure, against the blitz, against no blitz, and on third down. His passer rating was worse than league average on throws behind the line of scrimmage, on throws 0 to 9 yards down-the-field, on throws 10 to 19 yards down-the-field, and on throws 20+ yards down-the-field. Playing the Ravens, one of the top defenses in the entire league, Wilson is unlikely to have a productive day.
49ers (vs. Bears)
The Chicago Bears are worse than league average at every position on their roster, which makes it extremely difficult to be optimistic heading into this upcoming season. Fields impressed at times during the preseason, but there is a concerning lack of talent around him on the offensive side of the ball, not to mention one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Chicago stands little chance of winning at the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball in Week 1, making it very unlikely that they manage to pull off an upset. The San Francisco 49ers are starting a relatively inexperienced quarterback behind a mediocre offensive line, but they are still the better team in all phases of the game. It would be surprising to see them get upset in this spot.
Chiefs (vs. Cardinals)
Shockingly, the market is cold on the Kansas City Chiefs to begin the 2022 campaign. Following the trade of Tyreek Hill and the loss of Tyrann Mathieu in free agency during the offseason, many pundits are expecting a down year from Patrick Mahomes and company. Though not sexy, the Chiefs addressed a number of areas of concern during the draft – selecting Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis in the first round, then adding Bryan Cook in the second round and Leo Chenal in the third round. A year ago, Kansas City was one of the worst defenses in football. The addition of elite young talent figures to more than compensate for the loss of a couple of big names.
The Arizona Cardinals started hot in 2021, winning their first seven games. However, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins, Rodney Hudson, and J.J. Watt during the middle of the season derailed a team that seemingly had Super Bowl potential. Heading into 2022, Hopkins is suspended, the defense is largely unimpressive, and the right side of the offensive line is a major red flag. The Cardinals will need a superhuman performance from Kyler Murray if they want to start the fall with a win in this spot.
Eagles (vs. Lions)
The Detroit Lions won an abundance of bandwagon betting fans last year with their impressive ATS record. Featured on Hard Knocks during training camp, the Lions won over another group of fans with Dan Campbell’s passionate speeches and competitive attitude. At the end of the day, this is still a bad football team. The offensive line should be a strength, but they are blocking for Jared Goff, who finished 31st out of 37 quarterbacks in passing grade in 2021, per Pro Football Focus. On Sunday, he will have to contend with one of the league’s best defenses – a recipe that is not likely to lead to a big offensive performance.
The Philadelphia Eagles have, arguably, an even better offensive line than Detroit, which is the main strength of the Lions’ roster. On top of that, the Eagles have more talent at the skill positions on offense, and have the luxury of facing what could be one of the worst defenses in the NFL this fall. Philadelphia has realistic dreams of a Super Bowl in 2022. It would be more than a little bit disappointing if they did not manage to leave the Motor City with a win in Week 1.
Saints (vs. Falcons)
The New Orleans Saints are dealing with some injuries heading into the opening weekend of the season, but even the loss of Trevor Penning at left tackle and the potential absence of Michael Thomas are unlikely to derail this team’s hopes of starting the season on a high note. The Atlanta Falcons fully committed to a hard rebuild during the offseason when they traded Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Calvin Ridley being suspended for the entirety of 2022 only further decreased the likelihood that this team will be competitive on a weekly basis this fall. Expect Jameis Winston and company to walk away with a win to begin the year.
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