NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 2
The good news is that we went 11-5 in our opening week confidence article, proving that our process for selecting winners is, once again, strong! The semi-unfortunate result from Week 1 was that we uncharacteristically lost two of our top-four confidence recommendations for the first time in this article.
Nevertheless, we are in good shape heading into Week 2 and have plenty of time to make up for any deficit that potentially exists in your confidence pool standings.
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough to, once again, win the vast majority of tournaments. We had zero weeks in 2022 with a sub .500 record on our recommendations.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 2 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 2 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Detroit Lions
5. Buffalo Bills
6. New Orleans Saints
7. Cleveland Browns
8. Miami Dolphins
9. Denver Broncos
10. New York Giants
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Houston Texans
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Chicago Bears
16. Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 2
Cowboys (vs. Jets)
In 2022, there were 40 quarterbacks who had at least 54 dropbacks under pressure, according to PFF. Zach Wilson had, by far, the worst turnover-worthy-play percentage (11.2%) of any quarterback in such situations. In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys generated an astounding 39 pressures against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants, leading to seven sacks and two interceptions. The New York Jets are on a short week, on the road, and facing one of the premier defenses in the NFL. This is an extremely difficult test for any team, but especially a team led by Wilson, who has consistently been one of the worst signal callers in the league since being drafted in 2021. Trust Dak Prescott and company to take care of business in this spot.
49ers (vs. Rams)
The Los Angeles Rams surprised nearly everyone in Week 1, with a dominant victory on the road over the Seattle Seahawks. Los Angeles out-gained Seattle 426-180 on the afternoon and ran 32 more plays than Seattle, despite both teams having the same number of drives. That being said, the San Francisco 49ers are a far superior roster on both sides of the ball than the Seahawks. The 49ers dominated in Week 1 as well, with 152 more total yards than the Pittsburgh Steelers and a dominant 37 minutes and 23 seconds of possession. Across the last two seasons, Matthew Stafford has a pedestrian 10-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure – and that was with Cooper Kupp on the field. San Francisco generated 29 pressures and recorded five sacks in Week 1. Expect more of the same from this defense in Week 2 and for Stafford to have a tough day at the office.
Eagles (vs. Vikings)
Much is being made of the missing defensive pieces on Thursday night for the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Minnesota Vikings have equally troubling news coming from the injury report, which has generated less media attention. The Vikings have already ruled out Garrett Bradbury, who is the team’s starting center. His backup, Austin Schlottman, is a considerable downgrade. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw is also listed as questionable for Minnesota as of this writing, after logging a limited practice on Tuesday. If Darrisaw is unable to go, he will be replaced by Olisaemeka Udoh, who has allowed an alarmingly-high 6.0% pressure rate in his career, which comprises 802 pass-blocking snaps. The Eagles are extremely thin at linebacker and will be without two starting members of their secondary unit. These are significant concerns, but Philadelphia still has the better quarterback and should win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. This game might be more tightly-contested than people are anticipating, but Jalen Hurts and company should be able to find a way to win against an inferior opponent.
Lions (vs. Seahawks)
There are two important things to realize heading into Week 2 concerning these teams – 1) the Seattle Seahawks are nowhere near as bad as what they showed in their season opener; 2) the Detroit Lions are not Super Bowl contenders simply because they beat an extremely short-handed Kansas City Chiefs team on the road last Thursday. Nevertheless, Detroit is still a strong look in this contest. Playing on Thursday to open the campaign has afforded the Lions an extra three days of rest and preparation ahead of this Sunday’s matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle is also traveling across three time zones for a 1:00 p.m. EST kickoff this weekend, which brings an additional set of complications into the equation for them. Jared Goff had a 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home in 2022 and led the Lions to wins in four of their final five home games last fall. The Seahawks could be without their starting left tackle and multiple key pieces on defense this weekend as well. Detroit has no excuses on Sunday – they should be able to get revenge for last year’s 48-45 loss to Seattle.
Bills (vs. Raiders)
The Buffalo Bills are the far superior team, on paper, in this matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, but there are reasons to be cautious about putting them too high in pick’em pools this weekend. First and foremost, the Bills have a net rest disadvantage in this contest after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Additionally, they are once again going to be without Von Miller, who is undeniably their most important defensive contributor. Last season, the Bills’ defense had the largest gap in the NFL between defensive DVOA with pass pressure (best in NFL) and without pass pressure (near league average). Jimmy Garoppolo was pressured on only four of his 29 dropbacks in Week 1, according to PFF. If the Bills struggle to get pressure on Garoppolo this weekend, the Raiders could make this game interesting. Buffalo should still be able to come away with a win in front of their home fans, but this is not as large of a mismatch as the market is currently indicating.
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6