NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 4

In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 31-16-1 (66.0%) record through three weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 99-40-1 (71.2%) picking winners straight up!

In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. Below, we have our selections for a parity-filled Week 4!

2022 NFL Pick’em selections!

In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.

I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.

NFL Week 4 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

2022 Weekly Results

  • Week 1: 10-5-1
  • Week 2: 8-8
  • Week 3: 13-3

2021 Weekly Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 15-1
  • Week 4: 9-7
  • Week 5: 13-3
  • Week 6: 9-5
  • Week 7: 10-3
  • Week 8: 8-7
  • Week 9: 9-5
  • Week 10: 5-8-1
  • Week 11: 8-7
  • Week 12: 7-8
  • Week 13: 11-3
  • Week 14: 12-2
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 11-5
  • Week 17: 13-3
  • Week 18: 10-6

Week 4 Selections

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Denver Broncos
8. Tennessee Titans
9. New York Giants
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Washington Commanders
13. New York Jets
14. Arizona Cardinals
15. Seattle Seahawks
16. Houston Texans

NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 4

Packers (vs. Patriots)

This might not be the most appealing game of the week for betting purposes or from an entertainment perspective, but those participating in pick’em leagues have little to ponder when it comes to locking-in their top confidence play of the week. The Green Bay Packers are the largest favorite of the week, and for good reason. Though Green Bay is not an elite football team, they are more than capable of taking care of business at home against Brian Hoyer and a lackluster New England Patriots defense which allowed 37 points to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3. Expect the Packers to get an early lead in this matchup, which will force New England into an undesirable pass-heavy game script, which will play to the strength of the Packers’ defense – their secondary unit. If Green Bay can win the time of possession in this contest, they should have little trouble securing a victory at Lambeau Field this weekend.

Vikings (vs. Saints)

As of this writing, it is appearing more and more likely that Andy Dalton will be under center for the New Orleans Saints this weekend. If that is the case, there is simply no excuse for the Minnesota Vikings in this matchup. As a starter during the 2021 campaign, Dalton had an 8-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and took 18 sacks in limited action. In games in which he played a significant amount of snaps, his team scored 14 points, 20 points, 13 points, 16 points, 22 points, 29 points, and 17 points. Minnesota did not show-up well on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, and they played with their food in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions before escaping with a narrow win – but this is still an excellent football team. The Vikings have a pass-rush that is more than capable of making life extremely difficult on Dalton. If the Vikings’ secondary unit can simply be adequate, Minnesota should find a way to win.

Eagles (vs. Jaguars)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have evidently returned a significantly better football team in 2022 than they were in 2021, having dominated the Indianapolis Colts 24-0, in addition to routing the Los Angeles Chargers by a final score of 38-10. However, both the Colts and Chargers were decimated by injuries at the time when both of those games were played. On Sunday, the young Jaguars will have a much tougher test against an undefeated Philadelphia Eagles roster that is healthy and replete with talent two-deep on the depth chart at seemingly every position. Jalen Hurts has made tremendous strides reading coverages and in his ability to throw the ball down-the-field. The offensive and defensive line for the Eagles are undeniably elite. Jacksonville is beginning to spin a fun, underdog, early-season narrative that is capturing the hearts and minds of many NFL fans. Still, they are a relatively inexperienced roster, with more than a few holes that a well-coached Philadelphia team should be able to exploit in this spot. Do not expect a rout, but the Eagles should still have a perfect record heading into Week 5.

Chiefs (vs. Buccaneers)

Simply, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fielded a practice squad for their Week 3 contest against the Green Bay Packers. Prior to the season, Russell Gage was thought of as a third or fourth option in the passing attack, at best. Against Green Bay, he received 13 targets from Tom Brady. Cole Beasley, who was unsigned as of last week, was on the field for multiple key third-down situations. This weekend, Tampa Bay will likely return Mike Evans and Julio Jones to the wide receiver room. However, Akiem Hicks did not practice at all on Thursday and Donovan Smith is still being limited. Neither player is a lock to be on the field for this primetime showdown. Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a game in Week 3 in which they dominated from start to finish in every facet of the game outside of special teams and self-inflicted wounds. If not for a muffed punt that gift-wrapped the Indianapolis Colts a touchdown in the first quarter, not to mention perplexing coaching decisions with the field goal unit – the Chiefs would have defeated the Colts by at least two scores. And that is before mentioning that Travis Kelce had a costly drop in the end zone and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy left potential points on the board at the end of the first half with an extremely questionable decision to run the ball into the line rather than push the ball down-the-field. At this point in the year, Kansas City is the much better team, regardless of whether this game is played in Tampa Bay or Minnesota. Expect Patrick Mahomes and company to bounce-back in a big way in this spot this weekend.

Rams (vs. 49ers)

The San Francisco 49ers have dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, but there are reasons to believe that could change on Monday Night Football in Week 4. First and foremost, San Francisco will be without their starting left tackle, Trent Williams, who suffered a high ankle sprain in the 49ers’ 11-10 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3. Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for this offense, but has looked far worse so far in 2022 than he did in 2021, when he had this organization within one drive of going to the Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams have been anything but impressive to begin the year, but they are the healthier team going into this intra-division battle, and they have the better quarterback. If the Rams’ secondary unit can avoid broken coverages, it is difficult to see San Francisco putting many points on the board here. Take Los Angeles, even with the known risks.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

  • Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

  • A failed high school pitcher, Nick discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete.

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