NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 5
Through four weeks of action in 2023, we are 42-22 (65.6%) in our NFL pick’em article. Following a sluggish first three weeks, at least by our established standards, we rebounded in Week 4 – hitting 10 of our top-12 confidence plays and 12-of-16 overall despite Deshaun Watson being ruled out after locking in our selections.
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough once again to win the vast majority of tournaments. Since Week 13, 2021, we have had zero weeks with a sub .500 record on our recommendations in this article.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 5 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 5 Selections
1. Miami Dolphins
2. Detroit Lions
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Washington Commanders
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Atlanta Falcons
10. Indianapolis Colts
11. New England Patriots
12. New York Jets
13. Green Bay Packers
14. Arizona Cardinals
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 5
Dolphins (vs. Giants)
Entering play in Week 5, the Miami Dolphins lead the entire NFL in offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. The New York Giants rank 32nd in offensive EPA / play and 28th in offensive success rate. Miami is much weaker on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 27th in EPA / play and 32nd in success rate, but they have an extremely favorable matchup in this spot at home, which lessens those concerns. The Dolphins are 7-2 straight up at home in the Mike McDaniel era. Home favorites of at least 10 points have won 87.5% of their games since the beginning of 2018. There is no such thing as a lock, but it would be extremely surprising to see New York find a way to pull an upset in this spot.
Lions (vs. Panthers)
Only four weeks into the new campaign, the jury is still out on which team is the worst in the NFL. However, the Carolina Panthers have made a strong case early in the season for that honor. Bryce Young ranks 26th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating from a clean pocket this year according to PFF. He has committed the third-most turnover-worth plays in such situations and ranks dead last in yards per attempt. Carolina has struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well, ranking 22nd in defensive EPA / play and 29th in defensive success rate through four games. In Week 4, only the Arizona Cardinals’ defense generated less pressure on opposing quarterbacks than the Panthers. Jared Goff is at his best at home and from a clean pocket. Assuming we see no last-minute surprises on the injury report, Detroit should have no trouble coming away with a victory on Sunday.
Bills (vs. Jaguars)
This weekend, the Jacksonville Jaguars will play their second consecutive game in London, which is a significant advantage for them in terms of rest and travel. However, it is doubtful that a lopsided travel schedule will be enough to help Jacksonville earn a win against the much more talented Buffalo Bills in Week 5. According to David Lombardi, there are only four teams in the NFL that are ranked in the top 10 in DVOA on both sides of the ball through the first four weeks of the season: The Bills, 49ers, Lions, and Eagles. Only the Bills rank in the top three in both offensive and defensive DVOA in 2023. Jacksonville has been far less impressive offensively so far, ranking 24th in offensive EPA / play. Defensively, the Jaguars rank 7th in EPA / play, but they have generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks less often than the league average, which makes it unlikely they will be able to slow down Josh Allen and company on Sunday. There are undoubtedly a handful of red flags with putting the Bills so high on this list, but it would be surprising if they are unable to deliver a win here.
Chiefs (vs. Vikings)
Though not the most analytical take in the world, it is probably fair to say that Patrick Mahomes looked…bored at times on Sunday Night Football against the New York Jets. Even so, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to secure their third consecutive victory. Unlike in previous seasons, Kansas City is no longer over-reliant on their star quarterback to save the day each time they take the field. Ahead of kickoff in Week 5, the Chiefs rank 5th in defensive EPA / play and 3rd in defensive success rate. After finishing 26th out of 32 teams in pressure rate in their season opener, their defense has ranked top 10 in that metric each of the last three weeks, the only team in the NFL to hold that distinction. Kirk Cousins is a capable passer under duress, which makes him better equipped to handle the Chiefs’ improved defense than many other signal callers. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and consequently should be able to figure out a way to scrape out a win on the road.
Ravens (vs. Steelers)
According to Warren Sharp, 61.1% of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ set of downs in 2023 have reached third down, which is the highest rate in the entire league. Only the New England Patriots have a higher rate of drives ending in a punt or turnover so far this fall. Per PFF, Kenny Pickett has been the worst quarterback in the league from a clean pocket, measured by passer rating. Among 29 qualified quarterbacks, Pickett ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 27th in completion percentage, 25th in turnover-worthy play rate, and 24th in aDOT. Simply, there is nothing to like about Pittsburgh’s offense. Defensively, the Steelers rank 14th in EPA / play and 18th in success rate through four games. As usual, the Baltimore Ravens are banged up heading into the weekend, and as usual, it is unlikely to matter. The Ravens are undeniably the superior football team in this matchup. Winning on the road in the NFL is difficult, but Baltimore is 7-4 on the road the last two seasons and capable of getting the job done here in an important AFC North battle.
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6