NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 6
Through five weeks of action in 2023, we are 49-27 (64.5%) in our NFL pick’em article. Following a sluggish first three weeks (at least by our established standards), we rebounded in Week 4 – hitting 10 of our top-12 confidence plays and 12-of-16 overall, despite Deshaun Watson being ruled out after locking in our selections. We had a disappointing Week 5, but are confident in a bounce-back in Week 6!
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough once again to win the vast majority of tournaments. Since Week 13, 2021, we have had zero weeks with a sub .500 record on our recommendations in this article.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 6 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 6 Selections
1. Miami Dolphins
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Los Angeles Rams
7. Detroit Lions
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Houston Texans
12. Chicago Bears
13. New England Patriots
14. Seattle Seahawks
15. Washington Commanders
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 6
Dolphins (vs. Panthers)
Entering play in Week 6, the Miami Dolphins lead the entire NFL in offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. The Carolina Panthers rank 25th in offensive EPA/play and 22nd in offensive success rate. Miami is not immune to mistakes, as we saw last weekend against the New York Giants, but they have enough firepower to give themselves a chance to win even if they do not play a perfect game. The Dolphins are 8-2 straight up at home in the Mike McDaniel era. Home favorites of at least 10 points have won 85% of their games since the beginning of 2018. Nothing in the NFL is a “lock,” but the Dolphins are heavy favorites for obvious reasons this weekend.
Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
Through five weeks this season, the Denver Broncos are 1-4 and have shown few signs of improvement. The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 and once again look like an elite team, with the added benefit of an elite defense in 2023, in addition to having Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. This past week, the Broncos traded Randy Gregory to the San Francisco 49ers. D.J. Jones was ruled out for Thursday’s contest due to injury – meaning that two of Denver’s top-five pass-rushers so far this season will not be on the field against Kansas City. The Chiefs should be able to take care of business in this spot, even if the weather and the short week lead to a more competitive game than the market currently suggests.
49ers (vs. Browns)
As of this writing, it appears highly unlikely that Deshaun Watson will play on Sunday after not practicing at all this week. As a result, P.J. Walker appears poised to lead the Cleveland Browns offense against a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks 5th in EPA/play through five games this year. San Francisco is healthy, coming off of a prime time victory over the Dallas Cowboys, and has shown no signs of slowing down during their unbeaten start to the campaign. There are always slight concerns when a west coast team has to play an afternoon game on the east coast, but the talent disparity in this matchup is staggering. Expect Brock Purdy and company to take care of business.
Bills (vs. Giants)
There is no shortage of red flags related to the Buffalo Bills this week, but they deserve a top-five ranking in confidence pools this week for purely macro-level reasons. From 2018 to 2022, home favorites of at least 14 points won 37 of 41 contests straight up. Injuries to Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones, in addition to overseas travel, are a concern, but this group still has Josh Allen and plenty of depth on the defensive side of the ball. The New York Giants are likely to be without Daniel Jones and could be missing at least one offensive lineman in Week 6. Buffalo should find a way to emerge with a win here, even if it’s not enough to cover the spread.
Eagles (vs. Jets)
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of two teams in the NFL that have still not lost in 2023, making them worthy of survivor pool participants’ trust in Week 6 against the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. Wilson ranks 32nd out of 32 qualified quarterbacks this season in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate. His severe limitations make it highly unlikely that the Jets are able to win a high-scoring affair against the Eagles this weekend. Philadelphia’s offensive line has not been as good as it was last year, but this offense is yet to score fewer than 23 points this fall. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have enough firepower to move to 6-0 in this matchup.
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6