NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 7
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 48-29-1 (63.5%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 127-61-1 (68.4%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. Below, we have our selections for an exciting Week 6 of NFL action!
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 7 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 7 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New England Patriots
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Las Vegas Raiders
9. Denver Broncos
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
13. Miami Dolphins
14. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 7
Cowboys (vs. Lions)
If early-week injury reports are any indication, Dak Prescott is likely to be back on the field this weekend for the first time since Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After logging a full practice on Wednesday, all indications are that he will be under center on Sunday, and that he will be able to take advantage of an extremely favorable matchup against a Detroit Lions secondary unit that ranks 32nd in Dropback EPA/play through six weeks this fall. The Lions have also proven incapable of slowing down opposing rushing attacks, permitting 5.5 yards-per-carry on the ground so far in 2022 – which ranks 30th in the NFL. Expect a healthy Prescott and a stout Dallas defense to win comfortably on Sunday.
Ravens (vs. Browns)
The Baltimore Ravens lost in Week 6 to the New York Giants due to an extremely ill-advised throw from Lamar Jackson late in the game. Prior to that costly mistake, the Ravens had dominated the contest in nearly every facet – ending the day with 168 yards more total offense than their counterparts. Baltimore had five more first downs than New York and did not trail on the scoreboard until 1:43 left in the game. In Week 7, the Ravens have the benefit of playing at home, and they get to host a Cleveland Browns team that has struggled mightily in recent weeks on both sides of the ball. If there is any concern here, it is that the Ravens rank 20th in Rush EPA/play this season, and will be tasked with slowing down one of the best rushing attacks in the entire NFL. Still, Cleveland is 32nd in Rush EPA/play and 24th in Dropback EPA/play entering this weekend. Teams with poor defenses typically struggled to win close games on the road. Take Baltimore to get the job done in this spot.
Buccaneers (vs. Panthers)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been far from an elite team to begin the new campaign, but this is a great spot for them to find their way back into the win column. On Sunday, Tom Brady and company will face a Carolina Panthers team that fired multiple coaches less than two weeks ago. In addition to the coaching transition, the Panthers are also non-committal about their starting quarterback. Regardless of whether Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, or Sam Darnold is under center, Carolina’s offense lacks firepower – and this is especially going to be the case against a formidable Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers have been largely unimpressive on the scoreboard, but they still rank 5th in Dropback EPA/play through six games. If forced to win this game through the air, Brady is more than capable of dismantling a Carolina secondary unit that ranks 22nd in Dropback/EPA play on defense in 2022. This play might be sweatier than bettors would like, but the Buccaneers should be able to secure a victory here.
Patriots (vs. Bears)
Head Coach Bill Belichick is always dangerous from the sidelines, but he is particularly dangerous when given an extra day of preparation for an opponent. After a slow start to the fall, the Patriots enter Week 7 on the heels of back-to-back victories by a combined score of 67-15 over the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. On Monday Night Football, the Patriots will host a Chicago Bears team that ranks 24th in offensive EPA/play and 20th in defensive EPA/play this season, despite having played only one top-12 defense and one top-12 offense through six weeks. The Bears are unlikely to find much success in Foxborough on Monday.
Bengals (vs. Falcons)
The Atlanta Falcons, somewhat surprisingly, defeated the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday by a final score of 28-14. However, it is worth noting that the 49ers were dealing with a plethora of injuries and moving parts heading into that contest – including having to travel across multiple time zones to the east coast. In Week 7, the Falcons will be forced to travel north to play the defending AFC Champions. The Cincinnati Bengals are not an elite football team, but they have proven in recent weeks that they are capable of emerging victorious in a number of different game scripts. After having suffered defeated in back-to-back games to begin the year, the Bengals are 3-1 in their last four contests and have the benefit of playing at home in this spot. They might not cover the spread, but it would be surprising to see them on the losing end of the scoreboard here.
Image Credit: Imagn