NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 8
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 55-36-1 (60.4%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 134-68-1 (66.3%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. Week 8 promises to be challenging, but our research is done – see the picks below!
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 8 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 8 Selections
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Miami Dolphins
6. Tennessee Titans
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. New York Giants
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. New York Jets
11. Atlanta Falcons
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Denver Broncos
14. Washington Commanders
15. Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 8
Eagles (vs. Steelers)
Entering Week 8, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only team in the NFL without a loss. After six contests, the Eagles rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play, with a poor run defense being the only observable weakness for this otherwise elite roster. On Sunday, Philadelphia has a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that ranks 28th in offensive EPA/play and 22nd in defensive EPA/play this fall. Pittsburgh is ill-equipped to exploit Philadelphia’s main defensive weakness, ranking 21st in Rush EPA in 2022. Expect the Eagles to dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup en route to a comfortable victory. It only helps matters that Philadelphia is coming off of a bye week in this spot.
Bills (vs. Packers)
Since entering the league in 2018, Josh Allen has never lost a game off of a regular season bye week. In 2018, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-21. The following year, Allen and company took care of business 31-21 against the Miami Dolphins. In 2020, the Bills enjoyed another double-digit win, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 27-17. Last year, Buffalo defeated Miami 26-11 with an extra week of preparation. This weekend, the Bills are positioned to continue this streak against a Green Bay Packers team that has performed far below expectations so far this fall. Heading into this matchup, Green Bay ranks 21st in offensive EPA/play and 17th in defensive EPA/play – making this a below average team on both sides of the ball. Conversely, Buffalo ranks 2nd in offensive EPA/play and 3rd in defensive EPA/play this season. It may seem odd to see Aaron Rodgers listed as a double-digit underdog, but it is warranted here. Expect the Bills to win handily on Sunday.
Cowboys (vs. Bears)
Of all of the teams that are favored by greater than a touchdown this weekend, the Dallas Cowboys carry the most risk. However, the risk is still rather small, and they are rightfully priced as heavy favorites for their Week 8 affair against the Chicago Bears. In his return to action in Week 7, Dak Prescott showed some rust, which led to Dallas being in a tightly-contested affair late into the afternoon against the Detroit Lions. Still, the defense performed exceptionally, holding Detroit to only six points, which eventually enabled the offense to prevail in the latter stages of the game. Chicago played well on Monday Night Football against the New England Patriots, but the emotional high of winning in a hostile environment coupled with being forced to play on a short week puts this group in a difficult position here. Chicago had lost three consecutive games prior to Week 7, and there are strong arguments to be made that having an extra four days of rest significantly helped them prepare for their matchup with the Patriots. Justin Fields and company will not have those same advantages in Week 8, which should ultimately translate to a Bears loss. Dallas is far more talented, has more preparation time, and the benefit of home field in this matchup – do not overthink things here.
Vikings (vs. Cardinals)
The Minnesota Vikings are yet to impress many people this fall, but their only loss remains a Monday Night Football defeat at the hands of the Eagles in Week 2. Considering that their only loss was a road hiccup to an opponent that remains undefeated, this group has earned the benefit of the doubt from pick’em pool participants. In Week 8, Minnesota has the benefit of being at home, in addition to the fact that their bye occurred during Week 7 – meaning that the Vikings have had more than enough time to prepare for this contest. The Arizona Cardinals also had a few extra days to prepare for this matchup, after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. However, the Cardinals have still not beaten a formidable opponent in 2022, with their only victories coming against the Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints – none of which are trending towards the postseason. Minnesota has better EPA/play rankings on both sides of the ball for the season, and should be able to continue to build upon those numbers this weekend.
Dolphins (vs. Lions)
The Miami Dolphins did not exactly light the world on fire in Week 7, with Tua Tagovailoa returning to the field, emerging victorious by a final score of 16-10. Still, the Dolphins played well enough to secure a win against an inferior opponent, which they should be able to do again in Week 8 against the Detroit Lions. Entering play, the Lions rank 22nd in EPA/play offensively and 32nd in EPA/play defensively. Miami ranks significantly higher in both categories and should have better chemistry with Tagovailoa having an additional week of practice under his belt before kickoff in this one. Detroit earned a soft spot in the hearts of bettors last fall with their incredible against-the-spread record, but they are still a long way from being a contender. Take Miami here.
Image Credit: Imagn