NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 9
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 78-44-1 (63.9%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 146-68-1 (68.2%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 promises to be another fun slate.
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 9 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 9 Selections
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. New England Patriots
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Seattle Seahawks
13. Los Angeles Rams
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 9
Eagles (vs. Texans)
Entering Week 9, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only team in the NFL without a loss. After seven contests, the Eagles rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 3rd in defensive EPA/play, with a poor run defense being the only observable weakness for this otherwise elite roster. On Thursday Night Football, Philadelphia has a favorable matchup against a Houston Texans team that ranks 30th in offensive EPA/play and 25th in defensive EPA/play this fall. Similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, Houston is ill-equipped to exploit Philadelphia’s main defensive weakness, ranking 20th in Rush EPA in 2022. Bettors should expect the Eagles to dominate the line of scrimmage one again in this matchup en route to another relatively easy win. Until proven otherwise, there is no reason for Philadelphia to be anywhere other than number one if confidence pools each week.
Chiefs (vs. Titans)
Ryan Tannehill returned to practice on Wednesday, but there is still a reasonably good chance that Malik Willis ends up starting this Sunday’s affair against the Kansas City Chiefs. In Willis’ first career start against the Houston Texans, he was only entrusted with 10 pass attempts, one of which ended up as an interception. Derrick Henry was handed the ball 32 times en route to a Tennessee Titans victory in that contest, but the winning recipe against the Chiefs will unquestionably need more than 55 passing yards in a one-dimensional offense. Kansas City is far from a defensive juggernaut, but they rank 14th in defensive Rush EPA/play this fall, compared to Houston, which ranks 28th. If Tannehill is unable to go in this spot, the Chiefs should have little trouble cruising to a victory at home. Even if Tannehill does suit up, the Titans have an uphill battle in front of them in a hostile environment against the NFL’s most potent offense, measured by EPA/play. Patrick Mahomes and company should find a way to get the job done in this spot, regardless of who is under center for Tennessee.
Bills (vs. Jets)
Heading into Sunday’s intra-division matchup against the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills rank 2nd in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play – making them one of the most well-rounded teams in the league at this point in the campaign. New York has overperformed preseason expectations to arrive at a 5-3 record, but there are more than a few reasons to believe that they are overmatched in this spot. Notably, the Jets rank only 25th in offensive EPA/play this fall and have scored fewer than 20 points in four separate games. Additionally, their 7th ranked defense will be facing their toughest test to date in this spot. Having allowed 24 points to the Baltimore Ravens, 30 points to the Cleveland Browns, and 27 points to the Cincinnati Bengals – it is doubtful as to whether this group is capable of making life overly difficult for the Bills. Assuming that Buffalo can move the ball well offensively, New York should experience their second consecutive loss.
Dolphins (vs. Bears)
Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field in Week 7, but the Miami Dolphins did not exactly shine in their 16-10 primetime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last weekend against the Detroit Lions, Miami’s offense played much better, but the defense made the game far closer than it should have been, considering that the Dolphins had 31 points and 476 total yards of offense on the afternoon. Still, the Dolphins have played well enough to secure back-to-back wins against inferior opponents, which they should be able to do again in Week 9 against the Chicago Bears. Entering play, the Bears rank 17th in EPA/play offensively and 24th in EPA/play defensively. Miami is the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and should only continue to get better offensively with Tagovailoa having reacclimated himself to game-speed after multiple weeks of practice and live action following a serious injury. The Bears have earned a couple of surprise wins this season, but they are unlikely to add to that list in Week 9.
Vikings (vs. Commanders)
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play just good enough to win games, but their only loss remains a Monday Night Football defeat at the hands of the Eagles in Week 2. Considering that their only loss was a road hiccup to an opponent that remains undefeated, this group has earned the benefit of the doubt from pick’em pool participants until proven otherwise. Minnesota is not an elite team judging by most advanced metrics, but they do have the third-best point differential in the NFC, and get to play a Washington Commanders team on Sunday that currently has the third-worst point differential in the NFC. Expect another tightly-contested affair, but for the Vikings to find a way to emerge victorious for their seventh win of the year.
Image Credit: Imagn