NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 9
In Week 8, we hit on nine of our top ten pick’em selections and finished 11-5 overall to regain some momentum as we hit the midpoint of the 2023 NFL regular season. In Week 9, the action begins with a Thursday Night Football battle between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday’s 12-game slate will conclude with a highly-anticipated matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals – a rematch of last year’s Division Round playoff game in the AFC. Monday Night Football will feature Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.
Below, we have our Week 9 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
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2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 9 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 9 Selections
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Houston Texans
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Miami Dolphins
9. New England Patriots
10. Green Bay Packers
11. New York Jets
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Las Vegas Raiders
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 9
Saints (vs. Bears)
There are zero deserving heavy favorites this weekend in the NFL, with many top teams playing each other and three top-tier teams on a bye. Consequently, Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints get a rare top-spot in this week’s pick’em rankings. The Saints have no shortage of flaws – ranking 22nd in offensive yards per play, 16th in offensive EPA/play, and 21st in offensive success rate. However, they have one of the league’s better defenses, ranking 6th in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate, and their opponent has far more flaws. The Chicago Bears rank 30th in defensive EPA/play and 16th in defensive success rate this year. Since Tyson Bagent took over, he has averaged only 4.3 yards per attempt under pressure and 6.6 yards per attempt from a clean pocket while committing a staggering number of turnover-worthy throws. New Orleans should be able to get the job done here with their defense alone. If Carr and company offer anything positive in the way of offense, the Saints could cruise to victory here.
Browns (vs. Cardinals)
Similar to the Saints, the Cleveland Browns being ranked in the top-two in this week’s pick’em rankings has far more to do with their opponent than anything else. PJ Walker has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL across the last three weeks, ranking dead last out of 36 qualified signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket and 32nd in passer rating when under pressure. Yet he gets to face an Arizona Cardinals defense this weekend that ranks 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate in 2023, which theoretically makes Walker a less risky presence for the Browns under center. Cleveland’s defense ranks 1st in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 1st in opponent first downs per game, and 3rd in sack rate through their first seven games. Assuming Kyler Murray does not suit up on Sunday, Cleveland’s defense should be able to win this game by themselves by consistently putting the offense in favorable field position. The Browns simply need Walker to avoid costly turnovers – easier said than done, admittedly.
Ravens (vs. Seahawks)
Though the Baltimore Ravens only won by seven points last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, the game was decided far before the final whistle. Baltimore led 24-7 late in the fourth quarter before a barrage of garbage time scores and an onside kick recovery made the score look closer than it should have been. The week prior, the Ravens demolished the Detroit Lions 38-6. Overall, Baltimore’s defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 5th in success rate through eight games. Both of those marks are better than those of the Seattle Seahawks. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks and Ravens have been close to even, with both ranking in the top nine in offensive EPA/play and in the top five in offensive success rate. Playing at home with a slightly better defense, Lamar Jackson and company should be able to come away with a win in this spot.
Texans (vs. Buccaneers)
The Houston Texans lost on the road last week to the previously winless Carolina Panthers, but that should not cause anyone to suddenly lose faith in C.J. Stroud. Even after a poor performance last weekend, Stroud ranks 5th among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating from a clean pocket this season, which is one of the most stable ways to evaluate quarterback play. From a clean pocket, Stroud also ranks 3rd in yards per attempt and has committed the third-fewest turnover-worthy plays of any signal caller in the NFL this season, according to PFF. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate of any team in the league last week. Tampa Bay’s defense has not generated a pressure rate higher than 22.9% in a single game in three contests since their bye week. During that stretch, the Buccaneers defense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. If Houston can protect Stroud this weekend, the home favorites should prevail.
Eagles (vs. Cowboys)
The Philadelphia Eagles are not as put together as they were last year, but it has not mattered much through their first eight games. Other than a late-game meltdown against the New York Jets in Week 6, the Eagles have been nearly spotless in 2023. Much of their success can be attributed to their pass rush, which has consistently been among the best in the NFL on a weekly basis this fall. Last weekend, Philadelphia had their second-worst defensive pressure rate of the entire season and they still ranked 13th in that category among all teams. From Week 4 to Week 7, Philadelphia was never lower than 7th in defensive pressure rate and finished in the top-five three times. Dak Prescott has performed well under pressure so far this season, but the larger sample size throughout his career says to expect more turnover-worthy throws and fewer yards per attempt from him when under duress compared to when he is throwing from a clean pocket. Expect this to be a tightly-contested affair, but for the Eagles to find a way to come away with a win.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6