NFL Grind Down: Divisional Round

by ohnjz Last Updated 2015-01-13 14:29:49

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens						New England Patriots
Sat – 4:35 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	47.5	20.25				-7	47.5	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.8	8	12	6		Offense	29.3	4	6	18
Defense	29.3	4	6	18		Defense	25.8	8	12	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	11	18	3	24		Baltimore Ravens	15	1	28	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	141	84	6	1166		Edelman	134	92	4	972
Smith	98	51	12	795		LaFell	119	74	7	953
Brown	33	25	0	264		Amendola	42	27	1	200
Daniels	83	52	4	597		Gronkowski	131	82	12	1124

Quick Grind

•Top Matchup: Patriots Passing Attack vs Ravens Secondary
•Avoid RBs Against the Ravens

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

The reshuffled Ravens offensive line showed some early promise last week but ended up devolving into a disaster. The Steelers defensive front repeatedly punched holes in the Ravens line, with replacement LT James Hurst being completely obliterated as usual. The Ravens performance last week doesn’t bode well with the Patriots on deck. I write every week how the Pats have completely transformed against the run over the second half of the season. Excluding Week 17, where the Pats pulled many of their defensive starters after 50-65% of the snaps, the Patriots have allowed just 67.7 rushing yards and the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. The Ravens do have PFF’s 4th-best run-blocking offensive line, and will surely attempt to assert their will so long as the game is close, but the line’s injuries and the surging Patriots run defense mean Forsett should be avoided this week.

Too Many Smiths

Yes, the header is a reference to this.

Both Smiths are risky plays this week considering the Patriots dominance against the pass this season (4th-best team coverage grade on PFF; 3rd-fewest FPPG allowed to WRs). Obviously, the main fear here is the coverage of shutdown CB Darrelle Revis. We tend to avoid whomever we assume Revis will shadow. Thankfully, we have a bit of an idea about the likely matchups this week based on comments from Ravens WR Torrey Smith, who said he expected to primarily be covered by CB Brandon Browner. Let’s address that first. If Torrey’s assessment is correct, he becomes an interesting tournament play based on the athleticism mismatch he can theoretically cause for Browner. I say theoretical because we’re talking about the NFL – this isn’t some bizarre 1-on-1 situation where Torrey’s blazing speed easily trounces the slow footed Browner, and that’s all that matters. As you might imagine just from looking at him, Browner (6’4, 211 lbs) plays physical, press coverage. It’s entirely possible that Torrey will be completely stifled by Browner’s jam. And when the Patriots shadow one player with Revis, they often use Browner and safety help over the top. So it isn’t as simple as saying that Torrey is faster and he’ll outrun Browner.

The interesting angle here is the combination of Torrey’s penchant for drawing pass interference calls, and Browner’s knack for committing them. The phrase “when two worlds collide” couldn’t be more appropriate here:

Torrey Smith – 12 Pass Interference penalties drawn (most in NFL)

Brandon Browner – 5 pass interference & 4 defensive holding penalties committed

While this is an advantage for the Ravens offense as a whole, the benefit for Torrey specifically is debatable. It’s entirely possible that Torrey could simply draw 1 or more PI/Holding calls for huge chunks of yardage, only to have someone irrelevant like Bernard Pierce punch in a TD. I’m hoping me saying that is a reverse jinx, but this has already happened to Torrey multiple times this season. Thankfully, he’s a top red-zone threat in the Ravens passing game, so any penalty yardage gained due to Browner getting a little handsy could lead to more RZ targets for Torrey. Ultimately I think this just further widens the range of scores Torrey could have this week, which makes him theoretically more attractive in tournaments.

With Steve I think the risk is obvious, and he should be avoided outside tournament lineups where you’re trying to be very, very contrarian. Lil Steve has performed well in playoff games in the past, but rostering him is an unnecessary risk considering the possibility of coverage from Revis.

TE Owen Daniels

Daniels could see production this week simply because the Patriots are able to shut down everyone else. Normally I wouldn’t target a stud duo of LBs like Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins, who are both emerging into stars in almost every phase of the game, but Daniels may be the Ravens best shot at passing production. Collins sees more snaps in coverage, and only allows a 61.2% completion percentage (2nd-best among MLBs), but the Patriots as a whole have allowed at least 4-49 to TEs each of the past 5 weeks. It’s not much, but if you’re looking for value at TE, you could do a lot worse than Owen Daniels.

QB Joe Flacco

Flacco is one of the QBs I like least this week. There’s a lot of talk about his record against ‘the Patriots’, but what we need to remember, is that holy $@& is this Patriots defense good compared to the versions in years past. Like their AFC rival Broncos, this Patriots squad is designed to force you into uncomfortable situations. The Belichick Weapon Removal Service, aka Darrelle Revis, neutralizes traditional top WR, funneling more targets/touches toward inferior players, and a combination of Brandon Browner’s heavy-handed press and safety coverage rolled over the top eliminates other targets or players the Pats feel won’t handle press man well. A resurgent run defense forces teams into more difficult conversions. So you might think the Pats must be ‘weak’ at LB then, right? Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins are the #2 and #3 highest graded ILBs on PFF, and excel in both run defense and pass rush, as well as being effective cover men (Collins coverage is mentioned above). You will hear about them as top LBs in this league starting next season, and Collins will become a star. They, combined with pass-rusher Chandler Jones and ‘motor’ (i.e. high effort white dude with limited athleticism) guy Rob Ninkovich, should feast on the reshuffled Ravens offensive line (particularly replacement atrocity LT James Hurst) and seriously limit Flacco’s ability to get balls downfield. I don’t think Flacco has a chance to move the ball in measured increments on this defense – he’s going to need to land his typical YOLO playoff magic deep balls, or draw PI calls, to score points against this team. There are contrarian plays, and then there’s being stupid. And I think relying on Joe Flacco falls into the latter category.

New England Patriots

QB Tom Brady

The Ravens present a polarizing matchup for Brady and Co based on the difference in performance between their pass rush and secondary. Despite their perceived secondary weakness, the Ravens have actually allowed the FEWEST FPPG to opposing QBs over the last 4 games. Of course, the 4 teams in question were the Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, and Browns – that’s 3 straight weeks facing bottom-5 QB quality. Take out those 3 games and they’re allowing the 7th-most FPPG to the position. And despite some clear talent deficiencies in coverage, the Ravens have been able to paper over it lately with a ruthless pass rush. The Ravens rush will cause mismatches across almost the entire Patriots offensive line, which only has ONE lineman (RT Sebastian Volmer) who has graded positively in pass protection this season:

Patriots Offensive Line: 28th-Ranked Pass-Blocking Grade

Ravens Defense: 1st-Ranked Pass-Rushing Grade

While the Patriots will undoubtedly take to the air against this defense, I really worry about the offensive line’s ability to keep Brady upright. It’s a similar situation to the games against teams with an insane pass-rush like Miami or Buffalo: if the OL can’t handle the pressure, Brady has an awfully low floor, but if they can hold up, his ceiling is massive.

TE Rob Gronkowski

You might be wondering if it gets old to list Gronk as the top TE every week in the WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld. The answer is…

”Guess who! We found out that absence truly does make the heart grow fonder last week, when Gronk’s absence meant ancient bores like Owen Daniels and Heath Miller topped the TE leaderboards. Gronk returns to his lofty TE throne this week, just in time for a matchup with a Ravens team that made Heath Miller look relevant again with 6-76 last week. I wouldn’t worry too much that the Ravens were awfully stingy to TEs to close out the season (7th-fewest FPPG over their last 4 games). People were concerned when the Pats played the Chargers (who finished the season allowing the 5th-fewest FPPG to TEs) in Week 14, yet Gronk still had 8-87-1 despite the Chargers attempts to corral him with bracket coverage from a LB and safety. The concerns continued when the Pats played the Dolphins in Week 15 — Miami was allowing the FEWEST FPPG to TEs at the time — and Gronk still had 3 catches for 96 yards and a TD. This man/demigod cannot be stopped. He’s the top TE this week, and it is seriously not close.”

WR Julian Edelman

The second of two Patriots who made the cut this week, Edelman was my top ‘Next Best Thing’ in the WR/TE Grind Down.

Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure

First, let’s just get this part out of the way.

So Leg Blount and Jonas Gray are out. That leaves us with Shane Vereen.

Let’s be honest with each other. I don’t want to recommend Shane Vereen. And you don’t want play Shane Vereen. But there aren’t many value plays at RB – or really anywhere – this week. Vereen seems to see the most snaps and touches in games where the Patriots appear to have a poor matchup in the running game (such as vs the tough defensive fronts of the Lions, Jets, etc.), which is certainly the case this week. So Vereen makes for a calculated risk on full PPR sites where you’re digging for value.

WR Brandon LaFell

While I generally think the Patriots passing weapons can exploit the Ravens secondary (provided the OL keeps Brady clean), the one player I think could be limited regardless is Brandon LaFell. I anticipate LaFell mainly drawing the coverage of CB Rashaan Melvin this week. Melvin is a ‘nobody’ in every sense of the word: he was a walk-on at NIU, he was an UDFA in the NFL, and was languishing on a practice squad until the Ravens lost 416 CBs to injury. Yet, Melvin isn’t playing like a nobody. He’s played in 4 games and started 3, and has only allowed 10/22 completions, good for a 45.5% catch percentage, just 106 yards, and a measly 60.0 QB Rating. Teammates and coaches are raving about the kid, and his apparent preparation and attitude stand out to me even in the articles I’ve read about him. It’s not much to go on, and Brandon LaFell has an undeniable knack for big plays, but I wouldn’t target LaFell against Rashaan Melvin.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Carolina Panthers						Seattle Seahawks
Sat – 8:15 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10.5	39.5	14.5				-10.5	39.5	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.5	18	16	13		Offense	24.6	10	19	1
Defense	24.6	10	19	1		Defense	21.5	18	16	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	1	4	1	17		Carolina Panthers	17	17	20	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	152	77	9	1041		Baldwin	98	66	3	825
Cotchery	83	51	1	594		Kearse	69	38	1	537
Brown	42	24	2	333		Richardson	44	29	1	271
Olsen	128	87	6	1045		Willson	40	22	3	362

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total with Seahawks big home favorites
•Look elsewhere when making roster decisions
•Matchup Spotlight: Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin vs Panthers DB Colin Jones

Carolina Panthers

RB Jonathan Stewart

Last week I suggested that the Cardinals run defense had begun to leak, making Stewart a sneaky play despite what the seasonal DVP suggested. Hopefully, some people took advantage last week… because I don’t think there’s much hope for J-Stew this time around. Unlike the Cardinals, who had given up 100+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5, the Seahawks have given up 50 or LESS rushing yards in 5 of their last 6. Even Stewart’s elite tackle-breaking isn’t going to be any match for this swarming defense, especially considering they’re playing at home.

QB Cam Newton

Cam is not an advised play this week. Recall that he was just 12/22 for 171 passing yards, with no TDs and 1 INT when these teams met back in Week 8. Last week’s sloppy, inaccurate performance did little to build any sort of momentum for Cam and the Panthers passing attack heading into this game. Cam will be the most contrarian QB of the week, and has theoretical upside due to his legs, but his chances of hitting his ceiling are not high.

TE Greg Olsen

Olsen unfortunately struggled along with his QB last week – there just wasn’t much he could do with Cam being so scattershot. I’m not sure it’s going to get much better for Olsen this week considering his ineffectiveness the first time around against the Hawks (just 1 catch for 16 yards). The Hawks have seriously tightened their TE coverage in the second half of the year, with just 1 TD allowed since Week 10, and the 9th-fewest FPPG allowed over their last 4 games.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Benjamin’s 4-94 against the Seahawks in Week 8 seems like a distant memory at this point. Richard Sherman shadowed Kelvin in that game due to injury to Hawks #2 CB Byron Maxwell, but should be back to playing sides again with Maxwell back in action. Benjamin has theoretical upside due to his perpetual TD potential, but this matchup is about as bad as it could get.

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

Key Injury Update: Panthers DT Star Lotulelei is OUT. This is an immense loss for the Panthers run defense, and therefore a sizeable upgrade for Lynch

In the wake of the injury to Panthers DT Star Lotulelei, Lynch goes from being a tier below the trio of stud RB options, to possibly being atop the group. The Panthers had essentially completely evolved from what was one of the most favorable defenses to attack with RBs… into a defense that allowed 86 or less rushing yards in 6 of their last 7 games, and not a single rushing TD since Week 10 (after averaging over 1 per game in the weeks prior). But now they’ve lost a 320 lb 1st-round rock in the center of that resurgent defense. Considering how ridiculous Beast Mode already was at home this season (11 TDs home vs just 2 TDs on the road), I love Marshawn as an elite RB play this week.

QB Russell Wilson

I’m hoping that Wilson’s struggles last week don’t get many people off the Seahawks QB this week, as I think he’ll have a conservative performance this week. I could easily see this game failing to meet the 39.5 Vegas total, with Wilson not needing to do much more than the sub-200 passing yard performance he put up the first time these teams met. Yes, Russ can go ballistic in literally any week, but I think the defensive scheme and presence of rangy super-LBs Luke Keuchecly and Thomas Davis will limit Russ’s production on the ground, and I just don’t think he’ll need to do much through the air for his team to move on.

WR Doug Baldwin

Baldwin made the WR/TE Grind Down as a matchup hammer this week.

Other Seahawks

WR Jermaine Kearse

As I’ve written in previous weeks, teams have not found much success targeting outside WRs against the Panthers

WR Paul Richardson

P-Rich set a career high in Week 17 with 5-60, his second straight week with at least 5 catches and 50+ yards.

TE Luke Willson

I don’t want to target a TE against the rangy Panthers LBs, but Willson’s athleticism gives him theoretical big-play potential (3-139-2 in Week 16). He just doesn’t see enough targets to utilize it.

RB Robert Turbin

Turbin has had 10+ touches in back-to-back weeks with Marshawn Lynch having back troubles. He had been seeing ~6 touches per game in the weeks prior.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Dallas Cowboys						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 1:05 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	53	23.5				-6	53	29.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.9	5	7	3		Offense	30.4	1	3	11
Defense	30.4	1	3	11		Defense	28.9	5	7	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	14	15	24	11		Dallas Cowboys	19	16	5	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	139	91	16	1368		Nelson	151	98	13	1519
Williams	71	40	10	713		Cobb	127	91	12	1287
Beasley	57	41	4	483		Adams	66	38	3	446
Witten	97	69	5	766		Quarless	46	29	3	323

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target EVERYONE!
•Matchup Spotlight: Packers WR Jordy Nelson vs Cowboys CB Brandon Carr
•Top Matchup: Cowboys Running Game vs Packers Run Defense
•Injury Update: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is Probable

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

On the road, in the cold, trying to limit a prolific offense, and against a team whose defensive weakness is the run, this game sets up perfectly for DeMarco Murray. He’s the top RB of the Divisional Round.

WR Dez Bryant

If you were wondering how the Detroit Lions managed to contain Dez Bryant last week, you might want to see this.

Neither Sam Shields nor Tramon Williams is going to lay that kind of shot on Dez this week, and they aren’t going to contain him, either. Throw on the highlights of Julio Jones’ Week 14 11-259-1 dismantling of Sam Shields if you need any more encouragement.

QB Tony Romo

I don’t see Romo as one of the top 3 or 4 QB options this week, and think that the Cowboys are much more likely to win on the back of DeMarco Murray than they are behind a high volume Romo passing day. JMtoWin beautifully sums up the reasons to consider fading Romo in his article this week.

TE Jason Witten

I suggested Witten as a value TE option in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld.

WR Terrance Williams

Williams is always an interesting GPP play based on his big play potential, as evidenced by last week’s 3-92-2. Keep in mind that lots of people will flock to Williams after his excellent Wild Card performance, and nothing has really changed about him – he’s still a high-variance player that see a limited number of targets.

WR Cole Beasley

If you’re digging deeeeeep for value at WR this week, might I interest you in Cole Beasley? He was one of the Bargain Bin Ballers in the Rotoworld article I’ve referenced a thousand times:

”If you’re looking for a Bargain Bin Baller with a higher floor, Cowboys WR Cole Beasley has been a sneaky option over the last quarter of the season. You wouldn’t think it, but the 5’8, 177 lb. slot man has been seeing a healthy amount of targets lately – and he’s parlayed those opportunities into at least 41 yards or a TD in each of the Cowboys final 6 regular season games, including 4-63 in last week’s Wild Card win against the Lions. Assuming Vegas has this game right, Beasley should find himself on the field often with the Cowboys trailing this week. That’s been a recipe for targets and production before with Beasley – and you can’t ask for much more from a $5,300 player.”

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Injury Update: Rodgers is Probable to play this week. Reports Thursday indicated Rodgers has a slight tear in his calf. He’s still expected to play, but there is re-injury risk here, as well as concerns about his effectiveness due to limited mobility

Rodgers is one of the biggest question marks of the Divisional round… or is he? Yes, he hasn’t been practicing. And yes, his injury appears more severe than was initially reported. But this is the best QB in the NFL, against an unintimidating Cowboys squad that has allowed the 8th-most FPPG to QBs over their last 4 regular season games. Despite tangible concerns about his injury, Rodgers has as high a ceiling as any QB this week.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy was my top play in the WR/TE GrindDown on Rotoworld:

”Jordy Nelson checks pretty much every box for a #1 WR in DFS. He plays a ton of snaps, is seeing a high volume of targets (averaged 9.25 over the Packers final 4 games), and has the physical traits to be both a matchup nightmare and a big-play/red-zone threat. And this week, he gets the cherry (or orange, if you will) on top: a matchup with Cowboys CB Brandon Carr. Carr has recently been shadowing opposing #1 WRs, which somehow resulted in him ONLY allowing 5-85 to Calvin Johnson (and 8-105 overall) last week —the first miracle of the new year. Last week’s porous coverage is pretty standard work for Carr, considering it was also the 9th time he’d allowed at least 80 yards or a TD in his coverage. On Carr’s Facebook page, some of his Likes include: hanging out in the Bottom-10 of all qualifying CBs in yards allowed, TDs allowed, and QB Rating allowed. Dude isn’t good. He eluded allowing a massive day to Megatron last week, but he won’t be so lucky against Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. You know what to do.”

WR Randall Cobb

The only reason I prefer Jordy to Cobb this week is the individual matchup. Whereas Jordy draws Brandon Carr, atrocious for all the reasons listed above, and a bottom-10 graded CB on PFF, Cobb will primarily draw Orlando Scandrick. Scandrick grades out as the Cowboys top cover man, and sits at #8 in PFF’s CB coverage grades. Scandrick isn’t impervious, evidenced just last week when he allowed 7-79 and catches to 5 different Lions receivers, but targeting Brandon Carr with Jordy Nelson seems to be the clear path of least resistance for the Packers aerial attack.

RB Eddie Lacy

There’s good news and bad news with Lacy this week. The good news: after 3 straight weeks of less than 20 carries, Lacy pounded out 26 carries and 29 total touches for 126 total yards against the Lions last week. Perhaps Mike McCarthy was just resting his bruiser a bit for this playoff run? The bad news is that the Cowboys are somehow allowing the FEWEST rushing yards per game to RBs over their last 4 games. Of course, one of those games was the 10 carry, 1 yard performance by the Colts in the Week 16 debacle, so these numbers are a little skewed. I’m not overly impressed by the Cowboys defensive front, and I think Lacy could still be in for 20+ carries if Vegas has this game right. While most people who target the Packers will look to the passing game, an interesting tournament pivot would be to roster Lacy for exposure to a projected high-scoring offense and hope he’s the one converting the TDs.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:40 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	54	23.5				-7	54	30.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.5	6	1	22		Offense	30.1	2	2	14
Defense	30.1	2	2	14		Defense	28.5	6	1	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	24	12	4	28		Indianapolis Colts	13	21	2	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hilton	146	88	7	1448		Thomas	184	111	11	1619
Wayne	119	65	2	791		Sanders	141	101	9	1404
Moncrief	52	35	4	498		Welker	64	49	2	464
Fleener	93	52	8	792		Thomas	62	43	12	489

Quick Grind

•Manning vs Luck: Let the Narratives Begin!
•54 point Vegas total and two prolific offenses = lots of fantasy goodness
•Top Matchup: Broncos Running Game vs Colts Run Defense

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

I think there’s massive upside and massive downside with Luck this week. The downside is the matchup. It’s a come-from-behind team’s nightmare. The Broncos have PFF’s 2nd-ranked pass-defense, keyed by top-3 cover corner Chris Harris, with physical shutdown man Aqib Talib across from him. They force teams into long conversion situations with their 4th-ranked rush defense, and then sic Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware (responsible for 26 sacks, 23 QB hits, and 77 QB hurries) off the edges on passing downs. It’s a defense designed to brutalize Andrew Luck this week. Yet, this same defense was the one at risk of unraveling when these teams met in Week 1, with luck twirling 370 yards, 2 TD, and 2 INT through the air and adding 5-19-1 on the ground. I don’t think Luck is the top overall QB this week, but there’s no doubt his ceiling is just as high as Rogers, Brady, etc. And unlike those QBs, he’s already torched the defense he’s facing once this season.

WR TY Hilton

Hilton pushed through his bum hammy last week to punish the Bengals for 6-103 (that probably should have been an absolutely massive day if not for a case of the Pierre Garcon’s). It’s really hard to get excited about him against the lockdown coverage of Chris Harris, who is arguably the top pure cover corner in the NFL and has yet to allow a TD this season, and Aqib Talib, who limited Hilton to just 1-8 on 5 targets in Week 1. I’m not sure the Broncos will shadow Hilton with Harris, mainly because I don’t think they need to. I would only target Hilton as a contrarian tournament option this week.

RB BOOM Herron

Herron was as excellent as we thought he would be last week, with 141 total yards and a TD… and 3 fumbles (he lost 2). Usually this would be a massive source of stress for Grinders everywhere, but in a gift from the DFS Gods, Colts HC Chuck Pagano has already said he would stick with Herron this week. Herron again check in as an excellent value play based on the volume of touches we assume he’ll get. An excellent value play for everyone but Adam Levitan, that is. Check out why the guy who said to fade Jeremy Hill last week is saying the same about Herron this week.

TE Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen

I wish one of these guys would have Jermaine Gresham-esque back problems in warmups this week. The Broncos have shown weakness to opposing TEs throughout the season, including a horrible TD allergy to Antonio Gates, and that vulnerability is creeping up again over the past several games. They’ve allowed 50+ yards and a TD in 3 of their last 5 games, as well as allowing 9 catches in 2 of their last 4. It sounds like LB Brandon Marshall will return for this game, but he’s a GTD, and it’s uncertain how much he’ll play. I think the Colts will have mismatches here, but as usual the health of both TEs limits each one’s upside. I would only use them in tournament play if you’re looking to differentiate yourself from Gronkowski owners, and would prefer to target Fleener over Allen

WR Donte Moncrief

Moncrief somehow weaseled his way into this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld:

”You’ll need to close your eyes, or plug your nose, or have a stiff drink nearby to help you stomach the bargain options at WR this week. Whereas last week we at least had a few high-upside, tournament-style plays to choose from (such as Martavis Bryant, last week’s BBB of choice), this week we’re reaching for players that have a lower floor than we’re used to, and less chance of reaching their ceiling as well. Such is DFS some weeks. One of the top cheap ‘upside’ plays this week is Colts WR Donte Moncrief. Yes, we’re going back to Moncrief, who scored as many fantasy points as you or I did in Week 15 (0 catches for 0 yards), and had just 5-21 over the Colts’ final 2 regular season games. But Moncrief miraculously showed up again last week, hauling in 3-54-1 that included a beauty of a 36-yard TD on a pristine throw by QB Andrew Luck. While not for the faint of heart, Moncrief’s big-play potential makes him viable if you’re mining for tournament gems this week.“

RB Trent Richardson

T-Rich is a MUST play on sites that give points for punt protection.

Denver Broncos

RB CJ Anderson/Ronnie Hillman

Prior to Week 17, CJ Anderson was as much of an auto-play as any player in DFS. And then Ronnie Hillman returned. And not just as CJ’s backup, but as his complement, actually out-touching our favorite perpetually underpriced RB. Don’t lose sight of that split just because CJ had 107 total yards and 3 TDs. I still like CJ as an option this week because I think he’s clearly the Broncos top option as a traditional runner, but I worry Hillman might firmly be in the rotation now. That makes Hillman arguably the top ‘reserve’ RB to target in tournament play.

Broncos WRs

It might sound weird to suggest that both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are risky plays this week. However, considering the struggles of the Broncos passing game, as well as the fact that one of the duo will basically always be matched up with a top-3 coverage CB in Vontae Davis, seriously limits their appeal on a slate that already includes a few elite plays. Of course, the flipside is that one player will then also get a chance to crack open the inconsistent coverage of Greg Toler, who grades out as the 7th-worst CB in coverage on PFF. Because I don’t feel as confident in the snaps each player will see in the coverage of the weaker link in the Colts CB corps, I would prefer to only target the Broncos in tournament stacks along with Peyton Manning.

QB Peyton Manning

If you come from the school of ‘What have you done for me lately’, then Peyton Manning has been dead to you for an awfully long time. Manning sure isn’t entering the playoffs on anything resembling a hot streak, with twice as many INTs (6) as TDs (3) over his last 4 games. The media hounds his wobbly deep throws more and more with each passing (see what I did there?) week, and the institution formerly known as the Denver passing attack has evolved (or devolved, depending on who you ask) into a surprisingly smash-mouth run-first scheme. Manning also draws a matchup with a Colts squad that grades out as PFF’s 5th-best coverage squad, which has limited opposing passers to the 4th-fewest FPPG over their last 4 games. So there’s certainly reason to assume that Manning’s limited passing struggles will continue this week. I’m still holding out hope Manning will return a vintage performance yet this season, and wouldn’t be surprised if he does so this week, with Julius Thomas returning to health and a balanced rushing attack to force more defenders into the box. He’s worth a tournament stab if you’re looking for a stack that will likely be under-owned.

TE Julius Thomas

I put my Master of Citrus degree on the line by including Orange Julius as the final play in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down:

”Remember what happened the last time these teams met? I’m sure the Colts LBs and safeties do – especially considering they were demolished for 7-104-3 by Orange Julius in Week 1. Of course, this Julius Thomas looks an awful lot different than the dominant and healthy version we saw in Week 1. This Julius Thomas lacks the explosive athleticism we’re used to, and has been getting fewer snaps as a result. We can only hope that the time off last week means the old Julius will show up for the rematch. And while beat writers report that Julius isn’t likely to be 100%, Thomas’ own comments instead suggest he’s improved. We’ve seen players make surprising turnarounds in just a week’s time already this season, and Julius is capable of monstrous performances when healthy. Sometimes in DFS you have to be willing to roll the dice when others shy away; there is no bigger example of that philosophy than with Orange Julius this week. He is the ultimate risk/reward play of the Divisional Round.”

FINALLY, a CITRUS-themed ending to the Grind Down. While that might be the cherry (or should I say, ‘OHNJ’) on top this week, be sure to check out the rest of the awesome content we have to prepare you for this week’s NFL games:

Levitan’s Leverage: Adam Levitan

FanDuel Week 19: Pivoting Your Way To Victory: JMToWin

NFL Marquee Matchups: Divisional Round: Leo Howell

Hope you enjoyed the Grind Down this week. If you did, drop a comment below or stop by my Twitter @ohnjz

Good luck this week!