NFL Grind Down: Week 11

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-20 19:14:05

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	46	22.25				-1.5	46	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	13	9	17		Offense	19.8	25	20	21
Defense	19.8	25	20	21		Defense	24.3	13	9	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	27	27	27	15		Atlanta Falcons	17	32	24	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	94	61	3	853		Benjamin	85	43	7	659
White	66	39	4	491		Cotchery	54	30	0	390
Douglas	24	15	1	163		Avant	40	21	1	201
Toilolo	28	15	1	149		Olsen	73	51	5	658

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total and tight spread suggests scoring from both sides
•Two abysmal defenses face two inconsistent offenses: yay!
•Target: Falcons passing attack

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

One way to tell if an NFL WR is elite is by how disappointed his fantasy owners are after a performance that most WRs couldn’t dream of achieving. By those standards Julio Jones is elite as they come — he carved up the Bucs for 8 catches and 119 yards, yet STILL drew the ire of his owners after dropping what would have been a massive TD bomb. The silver lining here is that we’ll be able to roster Julio at a reasonable price for at least one more week, as he curiously remains priced below his elite peers. Julio also benefits from a second-straight tasty matchup; this time it’s against the Panthers, who are probably on the verge of just calling YOLO all-out blitzes every play thanks to their clueless secondary and non-existent pass-rush. If you prefer data to bizarre insults as a means of describing the Panthers as a favorable matchup, might I interest you in the following:

• The Panthers grade out as the WORST coverage unit in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.
• The Panthers allow the 8th-most FPPG to opposing WRs
• Not a single Panthers CB has a positive coverage grade on PFF

Assuming the Falcons offensive line can survive for a second straight week, Julio should see very little resistance, and continue to be featured in both the short passing game and on Matty Ice-Bombs downfield. He is a top-5 play this week.

WR Roddy White

White enters Week 11 looking to build off last week’s impressive 6-72-1 effort in which he caught every target thrown to him. Against a similarly week secondary (remember the stats I listed just a few inches above this? They all apply to White, too), White should see similar target volume and is capable of a similar performance. When healthy and facing a favorable matchup, White is about as good of a #2 WR as you’ll find in the NFL – and is a strong #2 WR option in DFS as well thanks to his modest price.

QB Matt Ryan

I was one of the few cautioning against putting Matt Ryan on your Christmas card lists and all of your rosters last week. And in a sense, both the skeptics and the Ryan love-letter writers were right. The Falcons offensive line held up long enough to allow some of the deeper routes to develop, but Ryan was still often knocked off his spot and throwing under fire – and that was the difference between DFS glory, and Twitter grumbling last week. To be fair, Ryan also got little help from his receivers on a few hold-your-breath plays, as both Julio and Devin Hester had key drops on plays that would have sweetened Ryan’s box score with two more TDs and a chunk of yards had they converted. Because the line was just serviceable against an average pass-rush last week, we need to be very careful deploying Ryan going forward.

Thankfully, this week Ryan faces the fantasy elixir known as the Carolina Panthers; you might have noticed from the WR breakdowns above that the Panthers don’t seem to enjoy defending the pass. All that love to opposing WRs also translates to QBs, as the Panthers allow the 9th-most FPPG to the position, and were just declawed by Mark Sanchez and the Eagles passing attack. The bottom line here is basically the same as last week though: Ryan is cheap, he has high upside due to the matchup, but is also a volatile play due to concerns with the Falcons offensive line.

Carolina Panthers

WR Kelvin Benjamin

GARBAGE TIME IS REAL! After three quarters of last week’s Monday Night showdown with the Eagles, Kelvin Benjamin was a no-show, creeping toward Michael Floyd status as DFS’ Public Enemy #1. He was clearly out of sync with Newton, quitting on routes that led to interceptions, dropping passes, and basically looking and acting dejected as the Eagles dusted them in all phases. But suddenly, a glimmer of hope in the darkness. Garbage Time. Someone must have reminded Kelvin Benjamin that Cary Williams was guarding him, because the rookie sprang to life on two big TD plays that both stabilized my blood pressure and shoved countless other Grinders past the bubble in their contests. This is a very wacky example of how Kelvin is essentially matchup-proof: he will get meaningful targets regardless of if the Panthers are getting blown out. If they’re up, he’s likely benefitted; if they’re down, he is their only hope of recovery. Kelvin Benjamin is the Obi-Wan Kenobi of this offense.

This week Obi-Wan faces a regular #GrindDown target: CB Robert Alford. I think we’ve targeted Alford each week he’s allowed one of his league-worst 6 TDs, and we certainly aren’t stopping now. The Panthers won’t get anywhere ‘attacking’ Alford’s partner, stud CB Desmond Trufant (who plays 90% of his snaps on the opposite side of the field from Benjamin), so their top weapon will also meet the path of least resistance this week. To sweeten the play, Benjamin has seen little price adjustment thanks to playing in the Monday night game last week. Yes, he will be monstrously owned AGAIN. But like last week, there’s little reason to fade a top-15 WR when he isn’t priced like it.

QB Cam Newton

Even Cam Newton is admitting Cam Newton is hurt this week, after the Panthers QB looked more like Clark Kent than Superman during his 9-sack pounding by the Eagles. Cam simply will not survive behind this offensive line (need proof? go look up the GIF of LG Amini Solitolu (sp?) getting BLASTED out of the way in a split-second by the Eagles Connor Barwin); it looked even worse than the Falcons’ line last week. With Cam banged up and his line a disaster, we need to treat him as we did early in the season (when he was recovering from injury and not running) – as a risky option that has a much lower ceiling than the Cam we’re used to. The ONLY thing that has me even slightly considering Cam this week is the matchup. The Falcons defense sucks, if you haven’t heard. And importantly, they trot out a practice-squad quality of pass-rush that grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL. I think this is more important for Cam’s weapons than for him specifically, but Cam shouldn’t have trouble attacking the Falcons through the air this week. The X-factor here is whether or not the Panthers coaching staff abandons the designed QB runs because of Cam’s health. If reports suggest a simpler game plan this week, Cam’s ceiling will be limited. If it’s business as usual, Cam could easily punch in a rushing TD on their trademark QB Power play. Keep an eye on any tidbits or rumors about the Panthers approach this week, and consider Cam a RISKY and tournament-only play going forward.

TE Greg Olsen

Last week Greg Olsen faced a defense that was allowing the FEWEST FPPG to TEs, but Olsen whipped them repeatedly en route to a 6 catch, 119 yard performance. Even when the outside passing game gets bogged down, Olsen is able to exploit mismatches and threaten the middle of the field. So despite the Falcon’s allowing the 3rd-fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, I have zero concerns about Olsen. If you aren’t paying up for one of the elite TEs this week, Olsen makes for a solid 2nd-tier option.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22				-3	47	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.7	26	32	10		Offense	21.6	22	10	25
Defense	21.6	22	10	25		Defense	18.7	26	32	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	32	14	22	32		Minnesota Vikings	4	25	8	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Patterson	55	26	1	308		Marshall	76	42	6	496
Jennings	59	35	2	459		Jeffery	73	44	3	626
Wright	41	26	0	315		Morgan	10	6	1	47
Rudolph	17	10	1	96		Bennett	71	49	5	562

Quick Grind

•Top-5 Vegas total suggests two struggling offenses will get it going this week
•Will the Vikings have new ways to get Cordarelle Patterson the ball?
•Injury Update: MIN TE Kyle Rudolph returns

Minnesota Vikings

RB Jerick McKinnon

With the potential reinstatement of Adrian Peterson looming, Jerick McKinnon may be getting one of his final chances as the Vikings lead RB this week. For Grinders that enjoy taking trips down Narrative Street, McKinnon’s last chance should qualify for a little ‘effort’ bump this week. McKinnon’s matchup with the Bears is slightly on the wrong side of favorable: the Bears allow the 11th-fewest rushing yards (85.9) and 13th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and they actually grade out as the 11th-best run defense squad on PFF as well; that’s quite a turnaround for the team that made every opposing RB a must-start last season. The Bears run defense numbers may be a bit inflated considering opposing offenses have opted to just bomb them in the passing game instead (See WK8 vs NE, WK10 vs GB, etc). But while McKinnon doesn’t have a stellar matchup, he does have a pretty appealing price throughout the industry. This is especially true on FanDuel, where MicKinnon is just the 47th-most expensive RB. He’s not a must-play due to the goal-line vulturing of Matt Asiata, but McKinnon is still a top-20 option and is a helpful means of salary relief if you want to pay up at other positions.

TE Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph practiced in full on Thursday and seems on track to finally return this week. The young TE has impeccable timing: the Bears allow the most FPPG to TEs, including over 6 catches and 81 yards per game. They also are fresh off giving up TDs to 14 Packers TEs last week. We don’t know what kind of limitations, if any, Rudolph will see, but he figures to immediately step back in as the team’s primary red-zone option. This is likely the lowest Rudolph’s price will be for the remainder of the season, so fire him up as a salary relief TE while the opportunity remains.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

In his last two games, Bridgewater has faced PFF’s 2nd-worst and 3rd-worst coverage unit. Yet, he was held under 270 pass yards both weeks, and has yet to throw more than 1 TD in a game this season. He’s missed on an awful lot of throws. But, as the saying goes: if at first you don’t succeed, face the Bears defense. The Bears clock in as only the 6th-worst coverage unit after 2 nuclear meltdowns vs Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, and are now allowing the 4th-most FPPG to QBs. We know they can be burst by elite QBs, but can we really expect Bridgewater to do the same? Of course not. However with Kyle Rudolph returning from injury, I think Bridgewater has a great shot to finally throw 2 TDs in a game this week. Though be warned: I said the same last week as well. Bridgewater is in play as a salary relief option this week.

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings has at least 6 catches and 76 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. He caught a TD in the other. If you’ve got the stones to roster Teddy Bridgewater with the intention of stacking Vikings, Jennings makes for the complement with the highest-floor.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

I’ve run out of things to say about Patterson. His ceiling is enticing. But it’s also been hypothetical for most of the season. Even when the Vikings do game plan to ‘feature’ C-Patt, Bridgewater frequently misfires. There’s a chance the Vikings schemed up better ways to get Patterson the ball more efficiently over the bye week, but there are better darts for you to throw until Patterson shows some consistency. He is a high-risk, low-floor, tournament-only play.

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

After being criminally underutilized last week (20 touches, 81 yards), expect Matt Forte to go back to Offense Engine status this week vs the Vikings. Forte is largely matchup proof thanks to his heavy volume and role in the passing game, but has the added benefit of a favorable matchup on deck this week. The Vikings allow the 5th-most FPPG and 12th-most rushing yards (106.9) per game to RBs. The Vikings vulnerability also favors the dual-threat Forte even more than typical RBs thanks to the 6.0 receptions they allow per game (7th-most). We don’t need to do more analysis than this – Forte is an elite play this week, and should be on your short-list if you’re paying up for a stud RB.

WR Brandon Marshall

Marshall was one of the lone bright spots last week vs the Packers, as he gutted out an 8-catch, 112 yard, and 1 TD performance. And he finally looked healthy! Until, of course, he injured his OTHER ankle and left the game. Here we go again. Marshall is doing his usual practice-skipping and limited-practice routine this week, but all signs suggest he’ll at least play this week. Unfortunately a hobbled Marshall has also been a hit-or-miss and largely ineffective Marshall. So, even though Marshall remains discounted across the industry, and draws an exploitable slot matchup, he is a risky play this week due to his injury status.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery had a slow 6-63 Week 10 as the Bears passing attack struggled against the Packers. But with the new injury to WR running-mate Brandon Marshall, Jeffery should again become Jay Cutler’s top target. I do worry slightly about the matchup against the Vikings outside CBs, as both Josh Robinson and Xavier Rhodes are in the top 20 in terms of completion percentage allowed (Robinson is in the top-10), and neither has given up more than 67 yards in their coverage (Robinson no more than 50). Rhodes has bene hit for several chunk plays though, and a lot of the Vikings coverage ‘success’ is influenced by either playing bad passing teams, teams that abused slot CB Captain Munnerlyn (5 TDs allowed), or teams that simply ran over them instead and didn’t need to pass. If forced to take sides in this matchup, I’ll take Jeffery’s talent and opportunity over the curious overachieving Vikings secondary. Jeffery is a top-15 WR play with both a steady floor and high ceiling, and is a strong option as your #2 WR this week.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett was a yawn-inducing 2-45 against the Packers last week, as he saw just half the targets of Marshall and Jeffery. Bennett was injured going into the game last week, and has been missing or seen limited practice this week. It makes him a dicey play this week, even considering the injury to Marshall. Bennett remains glued to the second-tier of TEs, but if I’m choosing between Bennett and similarly-priced players like Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen, I prefer the latter two.

QB Jay Cutler

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: ”Every time that Cutler faces the Packers I look at his weapons and think that certainly, THIS time he’ll shred them and not make mistakes. But as Week 4 showed, all the weapons in the world can’t take the Jay Cutler out of Jay Cutler, as his 2 INTs sunk the team’s hopes. This week the situation is the same – Cutler has the monstrous upside but is always a threat for multiple interceptions.”

Both familiar and prophetic, Cutler promptly followed up his early season 2 INT meltdown vs the Packers with another last week. Cutler reportedly sunk his own ship by checking to pass plays in favor of early-game run calls, because hey, who wants to attack the defense the easy way, right? Certainly not a gunslinger like Smokin’ Jay Culter.

This week Cutler will get yet another chance to right the mostly-sunk Bears ship against the Curious Vikings (indie band name?) pass defense. As mentioned above, the Vikings coverage rankings exceed their collective and individual talent in the secondary; just as the Bears will certainly be better passing going forward, so too will the Vikings be worse in pass defense. I mention all of this to sound less like a lunatic when I suggest that Cutler and the Bears receivers are contrarian options both this week, and every week until they have a breakout game. There’s just too much talent here. Keep Smokin’ Jay and his weapons in mind in your tournament lineups, but also note that Cutler himself is an extremely risky play until we see him get back on track.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2