NFL Grind Down: Week 15

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-18 19:02:28

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers						Atlanta Falcons
Sun – 1:00 PM						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.8	6	4	14		Offense	25.2	10	7	22
Defense	25.2	10	7	22		Defense	27.8	6	4	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	22	31	27	8		Pittsburgh Steelers	25	12	19	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	149	105	11	1375		Jones	147	93	6	1428
Bryant	39	21	7	453		White	93	59	6	704
Wheaton	74	43	2	534		Douglas	47	32	2	350
Miller	71	52	3	584		Toilolo	44	24	2	203

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB Le’Veon Bell

We start Week 15 with an absolute bang with a game that should feature plenty of offensive fireworks and DFS goodness. And it’s only fitting that we start with the hottest player in the NFL and the unquestioned top play of Week 15 – Le’Veon Bell.
Bell is currently riding a streak of 3 straight games over 200 total yards and at least 1 TD. THREE STRAIGHT GAMES OVER 200 TOTAL YARDS. He has simply been brilliant. Expect the brilliance to continue this week against a Falcons squad that just fed 200+ total yards and 3 TDs of their own to Packers RBs last week. We’ve been attacking the Flacons with RBs all season long, and this week we get to do so with the best RB in the NFL: You know what do.

WR Antonio Brown

The game with the top overall play of Week 15 also includes the best WR in the NFL – Antonio Brown. We’ve added to his list of ridiculous performances with last week’s 9-117. Brown racked up another 14 targets in that game, and had a few chances at TDs that could have easily resulted in his FIFTH multi-TD game of the season. He’s a virtual lock for yet another monster game against the Falcons, who grade out as Pro Football Focus’s 3rd worst coverage unit and also allow the 3rd-most FPPG to WRs.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben is one of my favorite QBs of Week 15. There’s just very little chance that the Steelers offense will flop against the Falcons, who grade out as both the 3rd-worst pass-rush and 3rd-worst coverage squad on PFF. What else needs to be said? Ben is a high-ceiling play suitable for all game types.

WR Martavis Bryant / Markus Wheaton

Prior to his 4th-quarter 94-yard TD, Martavis Bryant had been held to 3-15. But yet again, he came through on a ridiculous big play. Even in limited snaps (34% in Week 15), Bryant’s athleticism makes him a high ceiling tournament play. Markus Wheaton has been splitting snaps with Bryant, and he’s also viable against a secondary as sorry as the Falcons, who allow the 11th-most FPPG to WRs.

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

Julio Jones’ health impacts the value of the entire Falcons offense immensely this week.

If Julio plays, he’s a top-tier WR option. He should absolutely feast on the Steelers limp secondary, who AJ Green diced for 11-224-1 last week. Unfortunately Julio’s playing status is in question this week due to injury he sustained during last week’s 11-259-1 romp against the Packers. The tough part here is that the Falcons don’t NEED this game to win their division – so the threat of Julio sitting is real. Keep an eye on Julio’s status on Sunday and be ready to make a change based on the news.

WR Roddy White

If Julio can’t go, Roddy is in play as a top-15ish option. I’m not very high on him with Julio soaking up targets though.

QB Matt Ryan

I think Ryan is an excellent tournament option if Julio Jones is able to play. The AJ Green vs Ike Taylor matchup alone was able to propel Andy Dalton to a solid performance last week (302 yards, 2 TDs), and the Steelers as a whole own PFF”s 8th-worst coverage grade. I’m off Ryan entirely if Julio doesn’t play, though. His splits without Julio are pretty severe (almost 6 less FPPG). Ride the Julio/Ryan stack if the Falcons stud WR is able to go, but avoid Matt Ryan if he sits.

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5	50.5	27.75				5	50.5	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.5	1	2	11		Offense	18.7	27	22	30
Defense	18.7	27	22	30		Defense	32.5	1	2	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	3	2	11	4		Green Bay Packers	24	15	30	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	122	78	12	1265		Watkins	105	55	5	787
Cobb	95	69	10	980		Woods	75	43	2	468
Adams	58	35	3	423		Hogan	44	34	4	369
Quarless	38	26	3	299		Chandler	59	37	1	390

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL, but is a bit of a risky QB given the matchup with a Bills defense that grades out as the 7th-best pass-rushing and 8th-best coverage unit on PFF. The Bills have the horses up front to keep Rodgers uncomfortable in the pocket, and there are much more favorable options at QB this week. That said, Rodgers was barely owned in Thursday contests and will definitely be a contrarian play.

WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson bombed the Falcons 8-146-2 last week and has the talent to smash the Bills CBs as well… but his offense as a whole might not be as productive against this tough Bills D. Nelson remains a top-6ish WR, but I’m looking elsewhere if paying for a stud WR.

WR Randall Cobb

As usual, I recommended Cobb over Nelson last week due to the matchup, and Aaron “IDGAF” Rodgers focused on Nelson anyway. Cobb did turn 5 targets into 4-58, so it wasn’t like he was bad, but when everyone is open Rodgers seems to look deeper downfield to Jordy. This week, Cobb again has the better individual matchup, and with Rodgers likely needing to make quick throws in the face of a ruthless pass rush, I like Cobb as an overlooked full PPR play.

RB Eddie Lacy/James Starks

Both Fattie Lacy and James Starks feasted on the wimpy Falcons run defense last week, with each RB chewing up at least 100 yards and 1 TD. Unfortunately Lacy was one of many players to also suffer a minor injury amid his success last week. Beat writers are suggesting Lacy will play, but they’re also expecting a timeshare situation between the two main Packers RBs. With the Bills grading out as the 2nd-best run-defense on PFF, the Packers RB situation is one to avoid this week.

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

Well I was about as wrong as I could possibly be about Samuel Watkins last week: “Regardless, I would stay far, far away from Sammy for the Nth straight game. I’ll let you know when it’s safe to come back out.”

Sorry about that guys. I assumed the Broncos would, you know, use the BEST COVER CORNER IN THE LEAGUE (Chris Harris, PFF’s #1 CB) to shadow the only legitimate Bills threat; they instead let rookie CB Bradley Roby take an absolute beating all game. NFL coaching never ceases to amaze me.

Watkins has immense upside when he’s continually matched with inadequate defenders, but this week will be an interesting test for the rookie. The Packers have generally played strong pass coverage this season, but Julio Jones certainly didn’t care about that as he trounced the coverage of Sam Shields all game long. With Watkins hitting a groove, and the Pack’s defense floundering, I think Watkins is an intriguing tournament WR this week.

RB Fred Jackson

You had to hate that FJAX managed just 72 total yards last week, but you also had to LOVE that hauled in an absurd 10 passes. Jackson should see similar usage (though maybe not 10 catches) this week as the Bills are projected to trail and be throwing in this game. Jackson also benefits from the Packers inability to contain opposing RBs. He’s a high-floor salary relief option.

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