NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-21 15:45:12

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.7	24	29	9		Offense	20.6	20	15	18
Defense	20.6	20	15	18		Defense	19.7	24	29	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	20	23	22	12		Cleveland Browns	3	19	13	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Gordon	40	20	0	258		Benjamin	128	67	9	952
Hawkins	101	58	2	763		Cotchery	70	40	1	509
Benjamin	41	17	3	305		Brown	32	18	2	246
Cameron	37	18	1	295		Olsen	117	81	6	960

Quick Grind

•Johnny Football CAN’T play any worse… right?
•Cam Newton expects to play
•Depth Chart Update: Panthers RB Jon Stewart will start

Cleveland Browns

QB Johnny Manziel — $5500 DK — #22 QB — 11% OF CAP — 1.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#15 QB)

There is no denying that Manziel was a complete and utter disaster last week. One of the worst QB performances I have ever seen. To be fair to Johnny, though, the Bengals completely disrupted any chance he had with constant pressure, and simply feasted on his poor decision-making and off-target throws. The Panthers have a much less effective secondary, but they’ve also found some stability in their CB corps of late. As much as I hate to admit it, there IS value here in the fact that now all the Manziel hype is dead, and the countless Manziel owners from last week will most certainly not be coming back for more this week. Basement level ownership is likely. While not for the feint of heart, Manziel has theoretical upside and offers an awful lot of salary savings, making him an option in tournaments.

WR Josh Gordon — $6400 DK — #17 WR — 12.8% OF CAP — 2.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#32 WR)

Same as last week: Gordon’s success depends on competent QB play from Manziel. Yes, the Panthers allow the 8th-most FPPG to WRs, and we’ve targeted them relentlessely this season, but they’ve also found a CB duo that’s been playing effectively in recent weeks. I’m not saying that Bene Benwikere or Josh Norman are capable of neutralizing a talent like Gordon, but they don’t figure to just roll over like Antoine Cason or Melvin White had earlier this season. I would only target Gordon if you believe Manziel is in line for a bounceback performance this week.

RB Isaiah Crowell — $4300 DK — #23 RB— 8.6% OF CAP — 1.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#26 RB)

First, remember what Crow brings to the table: “If you want to watch a young RB that just oozes with talent and potential – go check out some clips of Isaiah Crowell. He displays a unique blend of prescient vision and explosive, violent running”

With Johnny Manziel’s impossibly bad performance, the Browns running game really had no chance to get on track. The Browns would do well to refocus on the run this week, especially against a Panthers squad that allows the 4th-most FPPG and 115.2 rushing yards per game to RBs. Crowell is a bit of a risky pick due to the QB concern, and his continued timeshare with Terrance West, but he’s a salary relief option as the Browns RB you want to own.

TE Jordan Cameron — $3500 DK — #14 TE — 7% OF CAP — .8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#18 TE)

Cameron is a risky (albeit cheap) play until Johnny Manziel shows some consistency at QB.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton/Derek Anderson — $7200DK — #10QB — 14.4% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA QB)

Anderson was one of the top QB plays of Week 16 basically through attrition alone; his play wasn’t outstanding by any means, but neither was anyone else’s. Thankfully we might not need to even consider him again, as Cam Newton practiced fully on Thursday and is expected to start this week. He returns in time to face a troubling matchup against a Browns secondary that grades out as the top coverage squad on PFF and allows the 8th-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs. You also have to wonder how many designed runs we’ll see from Newton in his first game back. I think most people will take a wait-and-see approach with Newton – and that’s definitely the smart move – but he offers a sky-high ceiling matched by few of his peers whenever he takes the field.

WR Kelvin Benjamin — $6600 DK — #15 WR — 13.2% OF CAP — 3.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#27 WR)

Benjamin topped his 6-92-1 with Derek Anderson at QB in Week 1, with 8-104 in their rematch with the Bucs last week. The way Benjamin can dominate with his size when his QB is accurate is impressive, and this recent showing will hopefully give the rookie a little momentum heading into the season’s final weeks (he’s been prone to mental lapses and inconsistent effort for most of the season). Unfortunately, Benjamin will now tangle with elite Browns CB Joe Haden. I never endorse attacking Haden in DFS with anyone other than Antonio Brown, and this week is no different. I do think the size mismatch will be interesting to watch, but there’s little reason to risk Benjamin being completely neutralized.

TE Greg Olsen — $6000 DK — #3 TE — 12% OF CAP — 4.9% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#8 TE)

I continue to preach the Gospel of Greg Olsen and he continues to produce on par with Rob Gronkowski and exceed the production of Jimmy Graham. Just check out his last 5 games:

Tremendously consistent, Olsen has gotten you at least 5-59 in each of his past 5 weeks, with 2 games over 110 yards and 2 games of at least 10 receptions – an incredibly safe floor, with a top-TE ceiling. And with 9+ targets in each of his last 4, Olsen is consistently the 1B to Kelvin Benjamin’s 1A regardless of the QB. The only concerns here are price (Olsen creeps ever closer to King Gronk), and a little concern over Cam Newton’s health and how that will affect his play. The Browns also defend the TE well, but Olsen’s hot stretch began with a 6-119 dicing of the top-ranked Philly TE defense – he’s essentially matchup proof. Though his ownership should continue to rise with back-to-back 10 catch games, Olsen is an excellent pivot from Gronk/Graham.

RB Jonathan Stewart — $5200 DK — #14 RB — 10.4% OF CAP — 7.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#8 RB)

J-Stew ground out an unspectacular 22-73 last week, but draws a strong matchup to exploit this week. The Browns allow the 6th-most rushing yards per game (112.1) and the 14th-most FPPG to RBs, and were just devastated for approximately 1000 rushing yards by the Bengals last week. DeAngelo Williams has been limited in practice but is expected to return, but I still think Stewart will dominate both the touches and production this week. Stewart is a viable salary relief option.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	46	26.5				7	46	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.1	22	14	26		Offense	21.1	18	11	24
Defense	21.1	18	11	24		Defense	20.1	22	14	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	32	17	23	32		Detroit Lions	5	5	9	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	106	61	6	935		Jeffery	125	77	9	1027
Tate	127	91	4	1224		Wilson	19	8	1	56
Ross	32	21	1	270		Morgan	15	7	1	55
Pettigrew	15	10	0	70		Bennett	114	81	6	857

Quick Grind

•Have the Bears given up?
•Depth Chart Update: Bears will start QB Jimmy Clausen (Jay Cutler benched)
•Yes, the Bears have given up

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson — $8700 DK — #3 WR — 17.6% OF CAP — 15.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#4 WR)

Calvin got love as my top WR stack target in the RotoWorld WR/TE Grind Down:

“It’s time for the encore. Also known as, Megatron vs The Bears ‘Defense’ Part 2. Also known as, ‘Calvin Johnson, Kyle Fuller, and a Cloud of Dust’. I don’t think there’s any chance the Bears will leave rookie CB Kyle Fuller alone on Megatron again after the 11-146-2 debacle on Thanksgiving… but what choice do they have? They’ll likely commit more resources to Calvin’s side of the field this week, but they simply don’t have the personnel to match up with him, nor do they have the safety play to provide any sort of reliable help once their CBs get beat. It’s lose-lose for the Bears (as usual), making Calvin the unquestioned #1 WR this week.”

RB Joique Bell — $6000 DK — #11 RB— 12% OF CAP — 13.9% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#5 RB)

Joique cranked out another 100+ total yards last week, his 3rd straight. The first game in this streak came against these same Bears on Thanksgiving, when Joique ripped them for 91 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries. Though their horrid pass defense gets all the buzz, the Bears run defense has crumbled of late as well, as they’re allowing 122.7 rushing yards and 1.7 TDs per game over their last 3. Joique is a strong play across all game types this week as a top-15 RB.

QB Matt Stafford — $7000 DK — #12 QB — 14% OF CAP — 12.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#1 QB)

Stafford eviscerated the Bears for 390 yards and 2 TDs on Thanksgiving, and now gets the opportunity to do so again just 3 weeks later. By now you know the #GrindDown drill here – we ruthlessly target QBs against the Bears. Why? Because they allow the 4th-most FPPG to QBs, grade out as the 3rd-worst coverage squad on PFF, and have a knack for giving up MONSTER performances. Their average performance allowed since Week 10 is a preposterous 298 yards and 2.7 TDs per game. Stafford is a high-floor/high-ceiling option suitable for all game types this week.

WR Golden Tate — $6100 DK — #19 WR — 12.2% OF CAP — 11.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#7 WR)

Tate is an interesting pivot from Calvin Johnson this week. Nobody will remember because of Calvin’s monstrous performance on Thanksgiving, but Tate was also effective in that game, hauling in 8 catches for 89 yards. The Bears simply can’t stop anyone in the passing game, and the more they dedicate to stopping Megatron, the more success Tate will have. If you don’t want to pay up for Calvin, or simply want to be a little different in a tournament, Tate is a top-20 option.

Want a little more analysis on Golden Tate this week? Check out Bryan Fontaine’s advanced analysis here.

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte — $8700 DK — #3 RB— 17.4% OF CAP — 1.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#24 RB)

Forte had 6 rushing yards when he faced these Lions on Thanksgiving. Not 6 rushing yards on one play; six rushing yards in the entire game. There’s no way that HC Marc Trestman gives his star RB just FIVE carries again, but I don’t know if we can expect Forte to grind out more than 50-70 yards on the ground even with a full workload. The Lions simply dominate the run, grading out as the 2nd-best run-defense squad on PFF, and allowing just 64.4 rushing yards per game to RBs. Forte is an especially contrarian play if you’re paying up at RB, and should still maintain a high floor thanks to his receiving prowess, but I would look elsewhere if you want a stud RB this week.

WR Alshon Jeffery — $8000 DK — #7 WR — 16% OF CAP — 1.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#44 WR)

Jeffery had 9-71-2 against the Lions on Thanksgiving, and was featured repeatedly on WR screens that let him do work after the catch. Those screens aren’t going to be nearly as effective this time around, as Brandon Marshall was one of (if not the) best blocking WRs in the NFL. Even still, Jeffery maintains a massive size advantage on the Lions outside CBs, and will always be a threat in the red-zone. He’s a top-10 WR option.

TE Martellus Bennett — $5700 DK— #4 TE — 11.4% OF CAP — 3.1% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#11 TE)

Bennett stormed the Lions for 8 catches and 109 yards on Thanksgiving, and figures to again be a prominent target for the Brandon Marshall-less Bears. Though we don’t know who Jimmy Clausen will lock on to in his first start, Bennett still figures to challenge the middle of the field and should see high target volume. He’s a top-4 TE play.

QB Jimmy Clausen (yes, really) — $5000 DK — #28T QB — 10% OF CAP — 7.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#5 QB)

The Bears have benched Jay Cutler. It’s a bold move by HC Marc Trestman, both in terms. So they’re throwing Jimmy Clausen to the Lions (literally). Reports from Bears players suggest there’s a lot of confidence within the organization that Clausen will have success – I just don’t see how that will be the case this week. Anchored by one of the NFL’s top defensive lines, the Lions grade out as PFF’s second-best defense. That overall success has translated to the death of many a QB in DFS, as the Lions allow the FEWEST FPPG to the position. This is just the long way of me suggesting you AVOID Clausen this week. The one thing Clausen does have working in his favor is price – he’s one of two minimum-priced options at QB this week. You can make some completely ridiculous lineups with Clausen, but this isn’t like Derek Anderson last week – his floor is much lower, and his ceiling is as well.

WR Marquess Wilson — $3600 DK — #48 WR — 7.2% OF CAP — 2.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#36 WR)

Million Dollar Marquess (I take all credit for this nickname) propelled Drew Dinkmeyer to victory in DK’s final Millionaire Maker last week. The physical freak managed just 3 catches for 16 yards, but one of those was the all-important TD. I’ve been a little disappointed with Wilson so far, as despite checking in at 6’4 and 200+ lbs, he’s routinely bullied by DBs, and just doesn’t run NFL routes. It’s a shame because Wilson has the tools to be perpetually open – and he needs to be to earn targets in this talented passing attack – but he’s underwhelmed thus far. Wilson still offers tremendous salary relief, but the tough matchup and uncertainty at QB makes him a less appealing option.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Baltimore Ravens						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5	41.5	23.25				5	41.5	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.9	8	12	5		Offense	23.1	13	23	6
Defense	23.1	13	23	6		Defense	26.9	8	12	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	13	13	31	7		Baltimore Ravens	25	1	32	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	73	40	8	625		Hopkins	110	69	6	1167
Smith						Johnson	119	69	2	737
Brown	25	22	0	228		Posey	1	1	0	30
Daniels	68	45	4	474		Graham	28	18	1	197

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total and two run-first teams limits appeal
•Depth Chart Update: Texans will start QB Case Keenum
•Narrative Street Alert: Justin Forsett AND Gary Kubiak AND Owen Daniels REVENGE GAME

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett — $6700 DK — #9 RB— 13.4% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA RB)

Narrative Street Alert: Justin Forsett REVENGE GAME AND OC Gary Kubiak REVENGE GAME
RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 9

I like Forsett this week as a sneaky bounceback candidate and top-10 RB. Recency bias will have most off Forsett after he ‘sucked’ with only 48 rushing yards against the lowly Jags last week. The box score is very misleading here, as Forsett’s production (or lack thereof) was largely a factor of the game script and a RARE occurrence where the Ravens offensive line didn’t completely steamroll the opposition. Expect a return to form from Forsett and Co this week, as the Ravens mauling line should pound a Texans squad that allows 107.8 rushing yards per game and the 11th-most FPPG to opposing RBs. The battle of the big uglies shouldn’t be particularly close in this one either, as the Ravens o-line grades out as the 2nd-best run-blocking squad, and the Texans check in as the 8th-worst in run-defense (without JJ Watt, they would grade out as the 4th-worst). Also factoring in here are both Justin Forsett’s and Gary Kubiak’s return to Houston. Kubiak made RBs like Arian Foster famous with his zone running scheme in Houston, and now Forsett and the Ravens are basically the best rushing team in the NFL (Forsett has a ridiculous 5.4 YPC)… I’ll let you connect the dots here. Many will overlook Forsett due to his salary (preferring to either pay up for someone like Lev Bell or drop down for extra salary relief), but he should see heavy volume and be a strong play.

Too Many Smiths — $4600 DK — #34 WR — 9.2% OF CAP — 3.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#29 WR)

Yes, the header is a reference to this.

Torrey Smith returned from injury last week, and should again be the Smith you want given his big-play potential. He’s likely to be overlooked until he goes off again, which could be as soon as this week; he has some tournament appeal. Steve Smith has been garbage for most of the 2nd-half, and remains an uninspiring option with Torrey back in action.

TE Owen Daniels — $3800 DK — #11 TE — 7.6% OF CAP — 1.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#13 TE)

Narrative Street Alert: Owen Daniels REVENGE GAME
RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 6

Daniels surprisingly led the Ravens in basically every receiving category last week with 4-62-1 and a team-high 9 targets against the Jags. He is rarely more than a salary relief option at TE, but I wouldn’t be doing my duty if I didn’t acknowledge that this is a REVENGE GAME for the former-Texan (this week makes it seem like there was just a mass exodus of Texans to Baltimore, doesn’t it?). A revenge game for Daniels doesn’t register high on the RNSI above, because, well, how much extra effort can a 32-year-old TE with limited athleticism really give? Nonetheless, Daniels is actually used creatively in this offense, and is an intriguing punt option if you believe in the miracles of Narrative Street.

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster — $8600 DK — #4 RB— 17.2% OF CAP — 2.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#17 RB)

This matchup really raises my blood pressure. A #GrindDown favorite against a #GrindDown ‘MUST AVOID’; my favorite running back vs my favorite defensive front. Shit. Look, here’s what we know. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, I mean Ryan Mallett, I mean Tom Savage, I mean Case Keenum at QB, the Texans have no choice but to feed Arian relentlessly and hope he finds seams in this defense. The problem is that this defense doesn’t have seams. The Ravens grade out as the 5th-best run-defense squad, allow the 5th-fewest FPPG, and just 72.3 rushing yards per game to RBs. That’s an awful lot less than the absurd 102.5 rushing yards per game that Arian is averaging. The one thing working in our favor here is the Texans stubbornness. Even when their running game stalls, or they get down by multiple scores (i.e. the 1st game against the Colts this season), the Texans just keep pounding and pounding Arian against the defense until he carries them back into the game. I’m sure that’s the game plan this week, especially with the Ravens missing stud DE Haloti Ngata. There’s no need to flail against this defense in cash games, but there is a glimmer of hope for Arian as a contrarian tournament play.

WR DeAndre Hopkins/Andre Johnson
— $6300 DK — #18 WR — 12.6% OF CAP — 2.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#35 WR)
— $4600 DK — #32 WR — 9.2% OF CAP — .8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#49 WR)

Injury Update: DeAndre Hopkins missed practice all week and is a GTD for Week 16. Andre Johnson would become a sneaky option if Hopkins doesn’t play

The Texans WRs are lumped together because now that Andre Johnson has passed the concussion protocol, and there’s a new starting QB, we really have no idea how the targets will shake out this week. There’s been a lot of talk this week about how Case Keenum has historically been a ‘lock-on’ QB that focus-fired only his top target. The question is: which WR will earn that distinction this week? Because we don’t know, both Texans WRs are awfully risky plays. The replacement-level talent of the Ravens secondary makes both tournament options, so, taken together, we should consider Hopkins and Johnson as low-floor/high-ceiling plays this week.

QB Case Keenum — $5200 DK — #25 QB — 10.4% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA QB)

I’m not endorsing starting Case Keenum against the NFL’s top-graded pass-rush, but if you’re looking for salary relief at QB… Keenum offers the most, with a better matchup than similarly priced Jimmy Clausen.

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