NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:59:38

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Minnesota Vikings						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	49.5	19.75				-10	49.5	29.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.5	24	29	18		Offense	29.0	2	12	2
Defense	29.0	2	12	2		Defense	20.5	24	29	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	32	26	31	11		Minnesota Vikings	1	14	9	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Jennings	12	7.0	7.0	62.0		Stills	4	3.0	3.0	25.0
Simpson						Cooks	14	10.0	13.0	94.0
Wright	6	3.0	4.0	37.0		Toon
Ellison	2	2.0	2.0	46.0		Watson

Quick Grind

•Saints entire offense should dominate
•Drew Brees @ home = profit
•Target Saints RB Khiry Robinson for value
•No Peterson for MIN means an Asiata/McKinnon backfield again

Minnesota Vikings

WR Cordarelle Patterson
The Vikings adjusted to the loss of Adrian Peterson last week by… not making any adjustments to how they used their only other playmaker. I think that changes going forward as the Vikings can no longer gameplan with Peterson as their primary threat. Hopefully we begin to see a few carries taken away from Matt Asiata in order to give Patterson more opportunities attacking from the backfield, where he has a 67-yard rushing TD already this season. Assuming the Vikings funnel him the ball, Patterson is a high-upside #2 WR this week. The Vikings will have to do everything in their power to get Patterson touches in order to have a chance.

WR Greg Jennings
Jennings got locked down by Revis last week, so some are assuming an obvious bounce-back here. I’m not so sure. I assume the saints stick their 2013 shadow CB Keenan Lewis on Jennings. Lewis has admittedly struggled thus far in 2014, but he was really good last season. Given the risk, I would avoid Jennings this week.

TE Kyle Rudolph
Unlike Patterson, TE Kyle Rudolph is dependent on competent QB play to produce in DFS. The Vikings don’t have it right now. I don’t like the matchup should the Saints stick either of their excellent safeties on Rudolph, but he still projects to be the 2nd passing option on a team that will be forced to throw often this week. Rudolph is a decent mid-range TE play and always has TD potential.

RB Matt Asiata / Jerick McKinnon
No Adrian Peterson this week for the Vikings, which means Matt Asiata is again the Vikings starting RB. Asiata managed 84 total yards but only 2.8 YPC in Week 2, and everyone who has ever written about Asiata will quickly point out his lack of athleticism and upside. Regardless, he is a starting NFL RB, and there’s value in that role. He is a punt RB option again this week.

McKinnon’s glimmer of hope is a bit brighter this week following news that the Vikings will use a hot-hand approach at RB. If McKinnon can actualize the gobs of talent he has, we could see him earn additional playing time. For now though, he’s an especially risky GPP play in the event he gets hot in-game and cracks off a few long runs.

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees
When Drew Brees is at home – fade him at your own risk. His matchup is more appealing than it looks on paper, as the Vikings faced an inept QB in Week 1, and a team that ran them over without needing to pass in Week 2. In 2013, the Vikings were the 2nd-worst coverage unit in the NFL on PFF, and their only main addition was slot CB Captain Munnerlyn. It sounds crazy, but Brees truly has a 300 yard, 2-3 TD floor at home. He is ideal for cash games and is the top QB option this week.

TE Jimmy Graham
Graham went off for 10-118-2 last week, with many of his receptions coming against the coverage of one of the NFLs best CBs in Joe Haden. He has 100+ yard, 2TD upside in any matchup. If you want to pay up at TE – Graham is your guy. On we go.

WR Marques Colston
Many will be off Colston after he was shut out last week. Don’t be one of those people. Colston is a great bounce-back candidate. He is capable of winning both outside and in the slot, and should find plenty of space to work against a Vikings secondary that was burned by everyone in 2013. Colston will face a tough test in the slot in CB Captain Munnerlyn, but still should get his.

WR Brandin Cooks
Cooks came back to Earth last week as the Browns limited him and the rest of the Saints receivers. I don’t see how the Vikings will be able to do the same. Cooks will line up in a variety of spots but should see Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes the most. Rhodes has allowed 5-90 so far in 2014 and was repeatedly abused by Patriots WR Julian Edelman in Week 2. Rhodes is a physical CB, but I don’t see the Saints giving him many chances to get his hands on Cooks cleanly. Cooks will have an awfully high ceiling this week, and should be a serious consideration in your GPP lineups at his reasonable price across the industry.

RB Khiry Robinson
With RB Mark Ingram inactive due to injury, Khiry Robinson should face little competition for carries as the Saints primary runner and goal-line back. He will run behind an offensive line that has the NFL’s best run-blocking grade on PFF. Robinson also has a juicy matchup this week against a Vikings defense that just allowed 25-101-1 to Patriots RB Stevan Ridley in Week 2. Game flow will likely be in Robinson’s favor here as the Saints are likely to lead comfortably throughout, meaning extra volume for the Saints RBs. When you couple all these factors with Robinson’s extremely low price across the industry, you’re left with an excellent value option at RB.

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots

Oakland Raiders						New England Patriots
Sun – 1:00 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		14	46.5	16.25				-14	46.5	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.0	28	21	30		Offense	25.0	8	24	13
Defense	25.0	8	24	13		Defense	14.0	28	21	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	2	25	1	14		Oakland Raiders	9	29	7	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Jones	17	12.0	12.0	146.0		Amendola	6	3.0	3.0	16.0
Holmes	7	5.0	5.0	45.0		Dobson	2	1.0	1.0	13.0
Moore	13	5.0	5.0	37.0		LaFell	6	0.0	0.0	0.0
Rivera	12	8.0	8.0	62.0		Wright

Quick Grind

•Patriots should roll easily, likely limiting passing volume
•Game flow suggests this will be a Ridley > Vereen game
•Avoid the Raiders

Oakland Raiders

WR James Jones
James Jones blew up last week vs the Texans, hauling in nine passes for 112 yards and a TD. With the Raiders projecting to be trailing often this season Jones looks like he’ll be a sneaky GPP option most weeks… but this week is not one of them. Jones will almost certainly face Darrelle Revis for the majority of this game, which eliminates most of his upside this week. While Revis had a few lapses against Mike Wallace in Week 1, Jones is not Mike Wallace. He’s a 30 year old possession WR with limited separation ability, and should be easily handled by Revis. Avoid Jones this week.

WR Andre Holmes
If you’re taking a shot on a Raiders WR this week, I would suggest making it Andre Holmes. Who? Holmes is a Justin Hunter-esque prototypical physical talent, who will be thrust into the WR rotation with Rod Streater’s injury. Holmes is near and dear to my heart for helping me qualify for the PFFC last year, on the back of a 7-136 outing. He showed some consistency picking up yards in chunks at the end of last season, and could emerge as the Raiders primary big-play WR. This isn’t a great matchup for Holmes or any other Raider, but he’d be my pick in GPPs.

Raiders Running Game

Update: Reports suggest MJD won’t play. Upgrade RB Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones-Drew returned to limited practice on Thursday. If he’s able to play, none of the Raiders RB committee members are likely worth starting. If MJD is unable to go, however, Darren McFadden will again draw the start and should get the majority of work.

New England Patriots

QB Tom Brady
Tom Brady wasn’t asked to do much in last week’s win over the Vikings, passing for only 149 yards and one TD. This week might not be much different. Despite allowing the 9th-fewest FPPG to QBs so far in 2014, the Raiders secondary IS exploitable (PFF’s worst coverage team in 2013)… but teams have no reason to test them when it’s so easy to run the ball instead. Expect limited passing volume from Brady in this one. His matchup gives him a little GPP appeal in case the Raiders can keep it close, or if he connects often with Gronk, but in general I would look to other options at QB this week.

TE Rob Gronkowski
There’s not much new to report about Gronk. He’s still playing less than 50% of snaps, but commands a large share of targets when he’s in the game. He has two TD upside even with limited playing time.

WR Julian Edelman
Of the few throws Tom Brady does make during blowouts, Edelman commands the second-most (behind Gronk). He went for 6-95-1 in Week 2, and looks like he’ll maintain excellent full PPR value thanks to his chain-moving ability and Brady’s laser focus on him between the 20s. He should have no trouble finding space against the Raiders secondary.

RB Stevan Ridley
In a classic Bill B clock-killing game, Steven Ridley racked up 25-101-1 last week vs the Vikings. I think we’ll see similar efforts this season whenever the Patriots jump out to an early lead. That should be the case here, with the Pats 14-point favorites. Expect Ridley to run over a Raiders front seven currently allowing a ridiculous average of 181.5 yards/game to RBs. The Raiders lack of cohesion on defense is Ridley’s gain this week. He is a strong #2 RB play, but keep in mind the risk in selecting a Belichick RB in DFS…

Defense
Coming off a 6-sack, 4-INT, 1 TD dismantling of the Vikings, the Patriots defense is expensive across the industry but has the potential for a similarly strong outing this week against the Raiders. Rookie QB. Atrocious offensive line. No running game. No offensive weapons. This one is a no-brainer: the Pats D is a top option this week.

Houston Texans at New York Giants

Houston Texans						New York Giants
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2	41.5	21.75				2	41.5	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	11	18	12		Offense	14.0	28	25	29
Defense	14.0	28	25	29		Defense	23.5	11	18	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	26	20	28	7		Houston Texans	7	17	22	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Hopkins	10	7.0	7.0	111.0		Randle	10	6.0	6.0	40.0
Martin	0	0.0	0.0	0.0		Jernigan	9	6.0	7.0	40.0
Posey						Beckham
Griffin	2	1.0	1.0	6.0		#VALUE!

Quick Grind

•Fire up Arian Foster until he breaks
•Be careful targeting Giants offense
•Giants TE Larry Donnell a sneaky punt TE

Houston Texans

Update: Reports suggest that RB Arian Foster is unlikely to play. If you paid up for Foster, pivot to DeMarco Murray or Gio Bernard instead. If you want to stick with a Texans RB, Alfred Blue is the likely workhorse. Blue makes an interesting salary relief option this week.

RB Arian Foster
Foster’s Week 2 was just as high-volume as his Week 1, but even more productive: he went 28-138-1 vs the Raiders, averaging 4.9 YPC. As long as he’s receiving such high carry volume, he’ll be one of the top weekly options in DFS. This week is no exception as Foster faces a Giants D that has allowed the 13th-most FPPG to RBs and will be without top LB Jon Beason this week. Fire up Foster without hesitation as a #1 RB.

WR Andre Johnson
Johnson managed a solid 6-74 last week and is every bit a top-10 WR in DFS. This week he faces his toughest test of 2014, in an improved Giants secondary that has rebounded from the beatdown they took from Calvin Johnson and the Lions Week 1. Johnson will draw shutdown CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in coverage. It isn’t an unbeatable matchup, but still should give us pause from expecting a top-10 performance from Johnson this week.

WR Deandre Hopkins
Hopkins has gotten pretty lucky through two games, scoring twice despite limited target volume. He faces a stiff matchup and his team will be run-1st, run-2nd, and run-3rd until Foster gets hurt. I would look elsewhere this week.

Others
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an advised play against a tough Giants secondary. TE Garrett Graham is still returning from injury and isn’t a consistent passing threat yet. The HOU backup RBs are allegedly going to get a bigger share of the workload this week, but still shouldn’t see enough carries to be relevant in DFS

New York Giants

WR Victor Cruz
While Manning has shown signs of life, I can’t recommend Cruz until he stops dropping the ball, literally. He just doesn’t seem comfortable in OC Ben McAdoo’s offense, and also isn’t running the routes that made him so successful in the past. I would avoid Cruz until he and Eli get on the same page.

WR Reuben Randle
Randle is the better GPP option at WR for the Giants. He’s a strong red-zone weapon and his usage last week suggests he’ll be a primary target there going forward. He should match up with Kareem Jackson this week, which gives him a substantial size advantage (6’2, 208 vs 5’10, 188) to leverage in the red-zone. Randle makes for an interesting #3 WR in a GPP.

TE Larry Donnell
The Legend of Larry Donnell has grown, and I’m starting to think he’s for real. He’s gone 5-56-1 and 7-81 to start 2014 and is certainly Eli Manning’s preferred target at this stage (as weird as that seems). He’s a sneaky TE target this week against a Texans D that is allowing six receptions per game to TEs this season.

RB Rashad Jennings
Jennings has had an unspectacular start to 2014 but should be a reliable option if the Giants offense can get on track. The Texans are about average vs RBs (16th in FPPG). It’s a matchup that doesn’t stand out, like Jennings. I doubt he’ll be highly owned this week. Jennings is a decent if unspectacular #2 RB.

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