NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:59:33

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins						Philadelphia Eagles
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	50.5	22				-6.5	50.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	11	14	1		Offense	32.0	1	8	7
Defense	32.0	1	8	7		Defense	23.5	11	14	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	24	18	23	11		Washington Redskins	5	1	12	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards
Garcon	16	11.0	11.0	89.0		Maclin	21	8.0	8.0	142.0
Jackson	11	9.0	10.0	81.0		Cooper	10	5.0	5.0	37.0
Roberts	8	5.0	6.0	79.0		Matthews	8	3.0	3.0	54.0
Reed	1	1.0	1.0	4.0		Celek	5	3.0	3.0	15.0

Quick Grind

•Keep targeting the Eagles offense
•Redskins offense runs through Alf Morris
•Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is a punt option at QB
•DESEAN JACKSON REVENGE GAME!!!

Washington Redskins

QB Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins takes the reigns of the Redskins offense this week in place of the injured RGIII. Cousins was excellent in relief last week, following up an equally sharp preseason. Can he have continued success as a starter? Some will say no based on Cousins’ lack of success in a starting role last season, but the new Redskins offense is actually tailored to his strengths. I think he’ll find success against weak secondaries and teams that aren’t able to disrupt the Redskins quick precision passing attack. The Eagles were a bottom-12 unit in coverage last season per PFF, and are allowing the 9th-most FPPG to QBs this season. Their outside CBs are exploitable, which doesn’t project well vs the Redskins strong outside WRs. If WR DeSean Jackson isn’t able to play, I would probably avoid Cousins, but if he goes I think Cousins should return good value for his price.

WR Pierre Garcon

We don’t quite know how Cousins will distribute targets among his top receivers. In Week 2, Cousins hardly looked Garcon’s way, instead focusing on the second-team receivers he was more familiar with. Expect that to change now that Cousins has been working with the first-team all week. Especially with DeSean Jackson banged up, Garcon will be the primary focus and chain-moving option in the passing game. Garcon should be able to force Cousins to look his way by getting open easily vs the weak Eagles secondary. There is some risk of Cousins favoring TE Niles Paul again, but Garcon should still be a solid option on full PPR sites.

WR DeSean Jackson

Update: Jackson is shaping up as GTD. Be sure to keep a close eye on his status Sunday morning

DeSean Jackson makes his first return to Philadelphia in Week 3. Unfortunately there’s a chance he might not play after missing practice all week with a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 2. I doubt he misses this game. There was talk last week about DJax having a huge week in the deep passing game if the Redskins could set up play-action with heavy doses of Alf Morris. I would anticipate the Redskins using the same strategy against the Eagles. Jackson is worth GPP consideration in talent alone, and you know he’ll bring some extra fire against his former team.

RB Alfred Morris

With RGIII out, Alf Morris should become the unquestioned engine of this offense. He’s racked up 36-176-2 already, despite his team abandoning a successful run game in Week 1. This week presents an intriguing matchup of the Redskins top-10 graded run-blocking OL vs an Eagles defense that was quietly a top unit against the run last season. So far the Eagles are middle of the pack vs the run in 2014, ranking 18th in FPPG to RBs and allowing 98 yards/game. It’s not a prohibitive matchup, so fire Morris up as a top-15 RB who should be in line for 80-100 yards and a TD. As long as the Redskins don’t get blown out early, Morris will get his carries. The Redskins will do everything they can to keep the Eagles frenetic offense on the sideline.

TE Niles Paul

Regular starter Jordan Reed is out again this week, keeping Paul relevant in Week 3. Here’s a few comments about him from last week: “Paul replaces the injured Jordan Reed this week. He had a surprisingly good showing in relief of Reed in Week 1, going 4-86 against the Texans. If there’s any replacement TE that can be an effective pass-catcher, it’s Paul, a former WR.”
Paul’s price has shot up a bit on some sites, but he makes a solid punt TE where he’s still available at a discount.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Nick Foles

Foles hasn’t looked very impressive so far in 2014, but is still managing to rack up the passing yards. He faces a Redskins defense whose 5th-stingiest FPPG to QB mark is a complete charade. The Redskins were the 5th-worst coverage team in 2013 per PFF, and their CBs were burn victims all season. Foles will be just fine in this one. He should end up as a top-10 QB, with the upside for a higher finish if he can hit a few big plays.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Jeremy Maclin is off to a great start, and is so far surprisingly being used in similar deep-threat fashion as Desean Jackson was in 2013. The Redskins CBs have been better than advertised in 2014 after being largely terrible in 2013, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep their legs against this offense. I think Maclin finds openings in the defense in the second half for the third straight week, and is a solid #2 WR.

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz is being criminally underused, but has massive potential in Chip Kelly’s offense. We’re seeing his potential in flashes every week, as he racked up 4-81 in chunks last week vs the Colts. Washington’s DVP for TEs should be thrown out, as they haven’t faced any quality TEs yet in 2014. They were a bottom-5 team vs the TE in 2013. They also just cut one of their safeties. Ertz should get open at will and is a top-5 option with big-play upside.

RB LeSean McCoy

Chip Kelly’s usage of Darren Sproles to spell McCoy is really annoying DFS owners. McCoy is still getting ~25 carries per game, yet people are still complaining. I have a feeling we’ll see Shady absolutely obliterate a team in the 2nd half soon. Maybe this week against a Redskins defense that is laughably the toughest team vs RB in FPPG? They can only trend in one direction. McCoy is the top RB option this week.

RB Darren Sproles

If you listen closely you can hear the sound of everyone on full PPR sites rushing to roster Darren Sproles. Sproles’ usage is incredibly encouraging – he’s already racked up 11-166 through the air, and is certain to be much more than just a change of pace back in Chip Kelly’s offense. He is an excellent option on full PPR sites from a possible production standpoint. But his likely ownership is concerning. If he isn’t able to bust off any big plays like he has the first two weeks, 25-30% of rosters will be sinking. It’s a solid pivot opportunity if you have the stones.

Others

WR Riley Cooper is just a guy that likes country music. Jordan Matthews is just a guy that drops passes. At least the drops can be fixed.

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams

Dallas Cowboys						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 1:00 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	44.5	22.25				0	44.5	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.5	18	27	6		Offense	12.5	32	31	23
Defense	12.5	32	31	23		Defense	21.5	18	27	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	19	10	20	10		Dallas Cowboys	11	3	2	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards
Bryant	20	14.0	14.0	158.0		Britt	4	1.0	2.0	17.0
Williams	11	6.0	6.0	70.0		Austin	4	3.0	8.0	34.0
Beasley	6	5.0	5.0	52.0		Quick	18	14.0	14.0	173.0
Witten	13	6.0	6.0	46.0		Cook	12	8.0	8.0	102.0

Quick Grind

•Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray should continue to roll
•Rams unlikely to contain Dez Bryant
•Continue playing TEs vs the Cowboys (Jared Cook)

Dallas Cowboys

WR Dez Bryant

Bryant went off for 10-103-1 in Week 1. More importantly, he received a whopping 14 targets. This week, Bryant will matchup with Rams CB Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has tons of talent, but tends to get torched as often as he shuts his man down. It’s a matchup Bryant should dominate, but between minor injuries and mentally checking out of games, you just never know with Dez. He’s a top-5 WR option this week regardless.

RB DeMarco Murray

Full disclosure: I love DeMarco Murray. I touted him in this space last week, and I’ll be doing so again this week. There are few better runners in the NFL, and Murray is proving it so far in 2014. Through two games, the elite Cowboys RB has a beastly 285 yards and is averaging a chunky 5.6 YPC. He’s up to 55 touches already – this Cowboys offense runs through Murray. The Rams don’t have much chance of containing Murray: they’re currently sporting the 2nd-worst run defense grade on PFF and are giving up the 9th-most rushing yards/game to RBs. Despite the masses having caught on to Murray’s dominance, he’s still a top-3 option this week.

Others

It seems to me that the Cowboys are reigning in QB Tony Romo. Whether due to injury or his horrid Week 1, he should be avoided until we see him unrestricted. TE Jason Witten should bounce back eventually, but right now there’s very little reason to roster him and expect typical Witten production.

St. Louis Rams

WR Brian Quick

The Rams don’t have much going for them in the passing game right now. But there is a glimmer of hope that Brian Quick is emerging as a true #1 WR. Quick has been very solid in the face of subpar QB play, going 7-99 and 7-74 and just missing big plays in both contests. Quick is the unquestioned top target in this passing game and it’s just a matter of time before he starts scoring TDs. He makes a strong #3 WR play where his price hasn’t jumped due to recent performance.

TE Jared Cook

You might be saying, “Why is Jared Cook being mentioned here?” You might even resent Jared Cook for being such a tease in Week 1 last season. Put down your pitchfork for a moment and consider that Cook faces a Cowboys defense allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to TEs (only .1 FPPG behind the Colts, who gave up 3 TDS to Julius Thomas Week 1). The Cowboys gave up 4-44-2 to Vernon Davis in Week 1, before allowing 10-142-1 to the mediocre Delanie Walker last week. This defense is susceptible to TEs. Cook himself has been consistent in 2014, going 4-56 and 4-46 so far. He could easily double that output vs the Cowboys.

RB Zac Stacy

The Rams got back to their run-heavy ways in Week 2, giving lead back ac Stacy just under 20 carries on his way to a 19-71-1 day vs the Bucs. The Rams will continue to feed him around 20 touches per game whenever possible – they don’t have much hope of sustaining drives without him. Hidden in the Cowboys middle-of-the-pack rush defense numbers (94.5 yards per game) is their inability to slow down running games on a per-attempt basis (5.25 YPC). Stacy should rumble through the Cowboys depleted front seven with ease, and offers sneaky upside in GPPs as a RB who could go 100+ yards with a TD if the Rams can stay close.

Others

QB Austin Davis is an intriguing but risky GPP option. No other receivers have emerged yet for the Rams, but they do get Stedman Bailey back from suspension this week.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:05 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	42	22.5				3	42	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	9	23	9		Offense	21.5	18	17	19
Defense	21.5	18	17	19		Defense	24.0	9	23	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	14	4	14	24		San Francisco 49ers	22	6	30	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	Touches	Yards
Crabtree	13	9.0	9.0	107.0		Fitzgerald	14	7.0	7.0	73.0
Boldin	15	10.0	10.0	133.0		Floyd	13	6.0	7.0	138.0
Johnson	6	4.0	4.0	59.0		Brown	9	5.0	6.0	57.0
Davis	9	7.0	7.0	83.0		Carlson	4	3.0	3.0	63.0

Quick Grind

•Very low total limits appeal
•Tight spread suggests Vegas doesn’t have much faith in 49ers offense
•Don’t fear Patrick Peterson vs Crabtree; upgrade Crab and Boldin if Vernon Davis is out
•Downgrade the Cardinals passing attack w/out Carson Palmer

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

After a 3 INT setback in Week 2, I’m not sure what to make of QB Colin Kaepernick yet. I anticipated him needing to be more aggressive with the 49ers losses on defense, but so far that has just meant that he’s forcing throws. He has been a more willing rusher though (66 rushing yards in Week 2), which will need to continue for him to be rosterable in DFS. I don’t think he’ll be flushed from the pocket often against a toothless Cardinals defense which has the 9th-worst pass-rushing grade on PFF. The Cardinals secondary also looks weak on paper, earning the 4th-worst coverage grade so far in 2014. However, Kaep isn’t likely to have his red-zone secret weapon Vernon Davis in this one, which limits his appeal for consistent TDs against a Cardinals team that Davis torched last season. There’s GPP upside here because of Kaep’s rushing threat, but don’t expect lofty yardage through the air.

WR Michael Crabtree

Don’t avoid Crabtree just based on Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson – Crab has owned Peterson throughout their careers. In their most recent meeting prior to Crabtree’s injury, the WR burned Peterson for 4-104-2. Crabtree’s health is a concern of course, but he has Peterson’s number. He is a sneaky #2 WR this week.

WR AnquanBoldin

If you don’t trust Crabtree vs Patrick Peterson, turn your attention to AnquanBoldin. Boldin will be the only other reliable option in the 49ers passing game, with Vernon Davis likely out. Boldin will be tested by CB Antonio Cromartie, who was absolutely horrid in 2013 but has bounced back so far in 2014. Boldin consistently wins on tight contested throws, though, so I like his chances despite the matchup. He’s a reasonable #3 WR this week

TE Derek Carrier

Update: Carrier is now expected to start. He’s a high-upside punt TE this week against the abysmal Cardinals TE coverage

It doesn’t look like starting TE Vernon Davis will be able to play, and the 49ers may be without his backup Vance McDonald as well. That leaves former WR Derek Carrier as the likely starter at TE this week. Carrier certainly has the athleticism to make an impact in a spot start, with a 4.49 40 and 40” vertical, as well as plenty of experience running routes as a WR in college. He was productive in relief last week, managing 3-41 vs the Bears. And of course, he gets the privilege of facing the Cardinals, who were the absolute worst vs the TE last season. Not much has changed for the Cardinals, as they’re currently allowing the 2nd-most receptions per game (8) and 4th-most yards per game (93.5) to TEs in 2014. It all sets up well for Carrier, who makes for a high-risk GPP punt TE this week.

RB Frank Gore

Frank Gore won’t die. He doesn’t have a very high ceiling any more, but will receive the lion’s share of carries in competitive games. Running behind an OL with the 2nd-highest run-blocking grade in 2013, Gore should be a top-20 RB this week and has a high floor.

Arizona Cardinals

WR Michael Floyd

With Drew Stanton throwing him the ball, and a tough cover from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Floyd predictably struggled in Week 2. Unfortunately his QB is still the same, which seriously limits his appeal this week against a tough 49ers secondary. There are better options in Floyd’s price range this week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald oddly seemed to benefit from having Stanton at QB, racking up 10 targets on his way to 6-51 in Week 2. The real reason he’s in play this week though is due to the matchup. 49ers slot man Jimmy Ward was just demolished by Brandon Marshall, to the tune of 3 TDs in Week 2. There’s a chance the 49ers may roll out a new slot CB for this one, but if Ward gets the call, I like Fitz’s chances, especially in the red-zone. He’s a sneaky option this week.

RB Andre Ellington

Ellington is playing through injury but is an intriguing option this week that is missing key pieces in run defense and was gashed by DeMarco Murray in Week 1. Ellington had success on the ground and through the air in one of their matchups last season, and the 49ers are missing one of their elite coverage (and overall) LBs in Navarro Bowman. If the Cardinals win this game, it’ll be because of Ellington. He is an intriguing #2 RB on full PPR sites.

Others

I don’t think QB Drew Stanton always knows where the ball is gonna go when he throws it sometimes. He has awfully good weapons, so it’s not crazy to think he could have a reasonable day. But don’t get too cute.

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