NFL Grind Down: Week 5

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-07 16:24:20

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	45.5	21.5				-2.5	45.5	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.0	16	6	26		Offense	18.3	26	8	29
Defense	18.3	26	8	29		Defense	23.0	16	6	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	22	27	23	11		Chicago Bears	26	15	24	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	32	16	5	144		Benjamin	36	21	3	329
Jeffery	32	20	1	262		Cotchery	15	13	0	158
Holmes	10	6	0	50		Avant	17	10	1	90
Bennett	38	29	4	295		Olsen	31	21	2	254

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks Panthers defense will control Bears offense
•Kelvin Benjamin is the truth
•Avoid the Panthers RB mess

Chicago Bears

QB Jay Cutler

Vegas doesn’t have much confidence in the Bears offense, listing them as 2.5 pt dogs in the wake of QB Jay Cutler’s inconsistent play in Week 4. Cutler came undone in the second half last week, with horrible interceptions. He’ll look to bounce back against a Panthers defense that could use a bounce-back of their own this week after being trounced by the Ravens. Now without both starting DEs Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, this Panthers pass-rush has been declawed. If the Bears can keep him upright, there will be opportunities for Cutler vs a Panthers secondary which is allowing the 10th-most FPPG to QBs. If Joe Flacco can find success vs this defense, I think Cutler will be just fine too.

WR Brandon Marshall

After being clearly limited by injury the past few weeks, Brandon Marshall is practicing in full this week. When he’s healthy, he’s matchup-proof.

WR Alshon Jeffery
Even with Marshall hobbled, Jeffery only managed 3-39-1 in Week 4. A dynamic big-play threat in 2013, Jeffery has had a relatively quiet start to 2014, and seems clearly behind Martellus Bennett in the Bears target pecking order. Working on the outside, Jeffery will see either Antoine Cason or Josh Norman in coverage. Neither has much hope of containing Jeffery without an effective pass-rush. A healthy Marshall limits Jeffery’s supply, but he remains a strong #2 WR.

TE Martellus Bennett
Bennett had another exceptional performance in Week 4, catching 9 passes for 134 yards vs the Packers. He leads the Bears in targets and has seen additional red-zone preference this season. This week Bennett will likely tangle with All-World LB Luke Kuechly in coverage. Kuechly will be a tough matchup for Bennett, but it’s hard to bet against the TE with the way he’s playing right now, and the significant size advantage he has in the red-zone.

RB Matt Forte
Forte had one of the most predictable RB breakouts last week, gashing the Packers for 23-122 on the ground and adding his typical 4-34 through the air. Unfortunately Forte faces the Panthers fearsome run defense this week, so we should certainly avoid him in DFS, right? Wrong. This Panthers defense has changed. We see now that when the Panthers are without stars DE Greg Hardy and LB Thomas Davis, 2 of the Panthers top-5 run defenders from 2013, their effectiveness crumbles. The last elite RB to face the Panthers in these circumstances was Le’Veon Bell in Week 3 – he ran wild for 147 yards. Forte should be able to find plenty of space this week. Keep in mind also that Panthers LB Thomas Davis was their best coverage LB; the loss of Davis should mean more room for Forte in the passing game. Forte is a top-3 option at RB and should be a dynamo on full PPR sites.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton
As I discussed last week and on Friday’s Expert Roundtable, we need to reconsider Cam Newton’s upside due to a couple factors:

• Lack of designed runs. Last week the Panthers called zero designed runs for Newton. Zero. He has 8 rushes on the year and none of them came from zone-read plays
• Horrid offensive line (2nd-worst pass-blocking grade on PFF)
• Lingering health issues – coaches commenting that they’ll eventually set him loose, suggesting he isn’t fully recovered

Newton’s upside and DFS appeal are largely based on his playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. When that factor is removed, he becomes a fairly ordinary QB behind an OL intent on getting him killed. It’s a shame, because he has an excellent matchup against the no-name Bears defense that allows the 7th-most FPPG to QBs. The Bears also allow the 2nd-most rushing yards to QBs, and were unprepared for designed QB runs and a mobile QB when they faced Colin Kaepernick. If ever there was a week to unleash Cam and play to his strengths, this is it. But comments from Panthers coaches this week suggests they’re reluctant to do so. Cam will be a risky GPP QB until he’s healthy (and running).

WR Kelvin Benjamin
Despite my love for Benjamin, last week I advised Grinders to consider benching him due to an imposing matchup with shutdown CB Jimmy Smith. And despite solid coverage, and being shadowed wherever he went, Benjamin still managed to produce a 5-76-1 line (with yet ANOTHER near 2nd TD). I don’t want to claim a rookie receiver who clearly enjoys dropping passes is already matchup proof five weeks into his first NFL season… but he kind of is. Benjamin’s skill-set, size, and target volume combine to make him nearly impossible to contain, outside obnoxious double or triple-teaming. Traditional cloud coverage isn’t working. Press coverage doesn’t work. If it weren’t for his own hands, and the largely inept team around him, Benjamin would have the production to rival any elite WR. I’m still waiting for Benjamin’s first 2 TD game, but he keeps bobbling catches, or jumping like he’s just going through puberty. He’s been one awkward movement away from 2 TDs in 3 different games. Maybe this will be the week, against a Bears secondary that has been ravaged by injury, and gave up 10-108-2 to Jordy Nelson in Week 4. The Bears won’t employ a shadow CB, so Benjamin will have his chances against a variety of Bears DBs, and should have little trouble exploiting the LBs and Safeties if he finds a mismatch

TE Greg Olsen
Last week I made a little chart of Greg Olsen’s consistent targets and production through three games, and he rewarded me with 5 targets and 2-30. Not cool, Greg. Not cool. The Panthers offense is concerning right now, but Olsen should nonetheless be able to provide a floor of at least double what he gave us last week. The Bears LBs aren’t very good in coverage, and their safeties are banged up as well.

Last Man Standing: The Story of the 2014 Carolina Panthers RBs
DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and now… Darrin Reaves? With the Panthers top 3 RBs lost to injury the Panthers are left with UDFAs and street free agents to contend for the starting gig. Unfortunately, HC Ron Rivera commented Thursday afternoon that it would not solely be Darrin Reaves running the show in the Panthers backfield. Instead the Panthers will use a rotation of Reaves, Fozzy Whittaker, and Chris Ogbonnaya. This, frankly, is a mess for us. Reaves was shaping up as an interesting GPP play if he got the green light for the majority of the work. But with a 3-man committee where each RB is an average talent at best – we should probably avoid the situation entirely.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	48	22.25				-3.5	48	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.8	7	9	11		Offense	34.0	1	1	17
Defense	34.0	1	1	17		Defense	25.8	7	9	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	23	18	4	29		Baltimore Ravens	7	6	27	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	21	8	1	138		Wayne	33	23	1	307
Smith, Sr.	42	25	3	429		Hilton	38	22	0	291
Brown	5	4	0	46		Nicks	18	12	2	94
Daniels	17	14	2	113		Allen	15	11	3	145

Quick Grind

•Sneaky high total suggests some offensive fireworks
•Avoid the Ravens RB roulette

Baltimore Ravens

QB Joe Flacco

By no means do I want to include Flacco here. But he has some factors working in his favor in this game that make him a viable GPP QB.

• He’s coming off a 327 yard, 3 TD dismantling of the Panthers
• He seems to be locked into YOLO Joe, sling-it-down-the-field mode.
• Colts defense allowing 10th-most FPPG to QBs
• Very high Vegas total suggests lots of scoring

Flacco isn’t a consistent DFS option, but when he’s on, his weapons are on, and he has the matchup in his favor, he can be a sneaky GPP QB. This week the stars are appearing to align

WR Steve Smith

If lists worked for Joe Flacco, they can work for Steve Smith too:

• He’s gone 5-100+ 3 times already this season
• Leads the Ravens in targets, with almost twice as many as the 2nd place receiver
• Featured on intermediate – deep throws, converting them into big plays at high rate
• Small and angry

Smith has essentially been unstoppable. At some point, even non-believers like me have to acknowledge that his role in the offense, and the target volume he receives, will continue. For now, all I’m willing to admit is that he is a fraud who just happens to be performing like an elite WR. That trend will likely continue this week.

WR Torrey Smith

I miss the old Torrey Smith. Right now he’s just an underutilized deep threat. Limited GPP appeal.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels looks to be a steady but boring full PPR option as Dennis Pitta’s replacement. A favorable matchup against the Colts, who are allowing the 4th-most FPPG to TEs, improves his outlook this week.

Flock of Ravens: Forsett > Taliaferro > Pierce?
One of several annoying RB committees in the NFL right now, the Ravens flock currently appears to be lead by original change of pace back Justin Forsett. Forsett managed 97 total yards on 17 touches last week, only ceding work to Lorenzo Taliaferro in garbage time. Pierce was active but didn’t play. For now at least, I think that hierarchy will continue. Each back should find success when they do get touches, running behind the 3rd-best run-blocking unit in the NFL, which is anchored by 2 of the top 3 run-blocking guards. As with the other committees, most will avoid the Ravens RB situation entirely, so if you have a strong feeling about a particular back, it’s an easy way to differentiate yourself in a GPP.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck has been phenomenal so far in 2014 but this week he faces a real defense for the first time all season. The Ravens allow the 7th-fewest FPPG to QBs and have CBs capable of completely shutting down outside WRs. It’s hard to fade luck given how well he’s playing, but there’s very little to like about his matchup this week.

WR Reggie Wayne
Wayne is the one Colts WR I would be comfortable rostering, as he should avoid the Ravens outside CBs for the most part and work against the inferior Asa Jackson or Chykie Brown (if Lardarius Webb sits).

WR TY Hilton
Hilton began to emerge in Week 4, tallying 6-105 vs the Titans. He again led the team in targets, and remains the overall team leader. I’m not sure how well Hilton’s big-play skillset translates to this matchup, considering he will likely draw shadow coverage from CB Jimmy Smith or Lardarius Webb (if healthy). Given the matchup, and that Hilton was over 10% owned in Thursday contests, you might be better off avoiding Hilton and finding a lesser owned WR with similar upside.

TE Dwayne Allen & Coby Fleener
While Allen and Fleener both hauled in TDs last week, they continue to cannibalize targets from one another and will be impossible to predict on a weekly basis. Given that the Ravens allow the fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, I think both Fleener and Allen are best avoided this week.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw & Trent Richardson
The Colts RBs don’t figure to have it any easier that the other skill position players this week. The Ravens hold opposing RBs to 71.3 rushing yards per game and the 6th-fewest FPPG. If you must choose a Colts RB, make it Ahmad Bradshaw. This game figures to be high-scoring, and Bradshaw is the primary RB in passing situations

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2