NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-05 19:40:20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10.5	48	18.75				-10.5	48	29.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	27	28	20		Offense	23.8	14	7	9
Defense	23.8	14	7	9		Defense	18.0	27	28	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	27	24	28	7		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25	13	32	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	35	13	2	134		Colston	23	12	1	185
Evans	27	17	1	203		Stills	12	9	0	125
Herron	6	3	0	18		Cooks	30	23	1	199
Myers	16	13	0	107		Graham	42	32	3	340

Quick Grind

•Saints passing attack will get back on track at home
•No Mike Evans means more targets for Vincent Jackson
•Doug Martin got his job back

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson
VJax disappointed in a cake matchup with the Steelers last week, only managing to salvage his day with a TD on the Bucs final (and game-winning) play. Mike Glennon was as inaccurate as ever, but at least he seemed locked onto Jackson’s general direction when throwing the ball. Expect high target volume for Jackson going forward, especially with WR Mike Evans injured. The Saints allow the 5th-most FPPG to WRs, but effectively shut down #1 WR Dez Bryant last week, and figure to apply the same constant double-teams and Keenan Lewis shadow coverage to Jackson in this one. The Saints did just lose top coverage safety Jairius Byrd for the season, meaning there might be more room for Jackson to work over the top. Jackson’s big-play threat gives him a top-10 ceiling, but the matchup this week worries me.

TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
ASJ is questionable this week, but if he plays, I really like him as a sneaky GPP punt TE. His measurable are just dumb for a TE: 6’6, 4.56 40, 37.5 in vertical, 33 ¾” arms. His theoretically massive catch radius should do wonders for Mike Glennons scattershot passes, and provides a similarly sized replacement for injured WR Mike Evans. If ASJ can stay healthy, he seems destined for a breakout game — a date with the Saints coverage-deficient LBs and a struggling Kenny Vaccaro seems a good place to start.

RB Doug Martin
Martin hasn’t been great this year, finishing Week 4 with a 14-40-1 line that looked every bit as unspectacular as the box score suggests. For now, it appears Martin has the trust of the coaching staff, which means he should get the majority of the weekly workload (always a valuable commodity in DFS). Don’t expect Martin to come anywhere near the 149 yards that DeMarco Murray just put up on this defense, but he should see 15ish touches and be a serviceable option.

OTHERS
Louis Murphy went for 6-99 last week and will likely stick as Mike Evans’ replacement.

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees
I know Brees and Saints have been struggling. But I promise this is the week they get back on track. Let’s review the evidence:

• Brees is at home
• In a fairly crucial divisional game following their embarrassing loss to the Cowboys
• Vs a secondary that was just lit up by Big Ben and the Steelers
• and Vegas projects a lot of scoring and a Saints stomp

When I add all that up my calculator just reads: “top play”.

TE Jim Graham
Last week the Bucs gave up 10 catches to Heath Miller and are now allowing the 2nd-most receptions and 7th-most FPPG to TEs. Brees and Graham should have few problems navigating the Bucs Tampa 2 defense – Graham will be a seam route monster this week.

WR Brandin Cooks
As I discussed on the Friday expert panel, if I’m taking one Saints WR this week, it’s Brandin Cooks. The goal here is to have exposure to Bucs CB Johnathan Banks, who has been PFF’s worst coverage CB so far. When Cooks lines up outside I think he’ll see a fair amount of Banks, whom he should beat with ease. Cooks’ added versatility will hopefully be unleashed again this week as the Saints search for holes in the Bucs zone defense.

WR Marques Colston
Colston had a solid but unspectacular 5-50 last week. The silver lining was his 10 targets, evidence that Brees is still looking the big man’s way. Colston is a good bet for a solid showing this week against Bucs slot man Leonard Johnson. Johnson has allowed 10 of 13 passes completed for 119 yards and a 104.3 QB Rating. He’s also 5’10. Colston is 6’4. Advantage, Colston.

RB Khiry Robinson
Robinson has underwhelmed since taking on the higher-volume role in the Saints backfield, if only due to his lack of TDs. His selection this week is mainly due to game flow. Vegas suggests the Saints will roll with ease, leaving mop up duty for Robinson. He remains a solid salary relief option at RB.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Atlanta Falcons						New York Giants
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	49.5	22.5				-4.5	49.5	27
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.8	2	3	10		Offense	25.8	7	11	15
Defense	25.8	7	11	15		Defense	32.8	2	3	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	12	16	17	4		Atlanta Falcons	20	32	11	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	41	29	3	447		Cruz	32	18	1	299
White	29	14	2	187		Randle	30	19	1	156
Douglas	17	12	1	121		Beckham
Toilolo	13	8	1	69		Donnell	31	25	4	236

Quick Grind

•Target all of the Giants
•Falcons OL is decimated and they face a tough secondary

Atlanta Falcons

QB Matt Ryan
Playing with a patchwork offensive line, Matt Ryan still managed to throw for 298-3-2 vs the Vikings in Week 4. Ryan has a tough matchup this week vs a Giants secondary that has the 7th-highest coverage grade and allows the 12th-fewest FPPG to QBs. The Giants outside CBs match up well with the Falcons stud WR duo, but the compelling matchup is actually in the trenches. The Falcons lost two more offensive linemen for the season last week, and should be easily overwhelmed by the Giants 9th-ranked pass-rush. Vegas suggests that Ryan and the Flacons will be trailing and scoring, and Ryan seems a safe bet for 40+ pass attempts. I just worry the matchup will offset most of the volume gains. I can see an argument for Ryan as a top-10 QB based on game flow factors, but I would avoid him outside GPPs.

WR Julio Jones
If the Giants use CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in shadow coverage this week, expect him to be locked to Jones. Despite the matchup, it’s hard to write off Jones, who has looked truly elite this season. He remains a top WR option, but be sure to consider his matchup when you’re deciding between stud WRs this week.

WR Roddy White
White didn’t seem limited by his hamstring injury in Week 4, as he strung together 4-73-1 vs the Vikings. White’s TD came on a tricky playcall where the veteran appeared to be setting up as a blocker for a screen to Julio Jones, but then released into a route and caught a wide-open TD. Like Jones, White doesn’t have a favorable matchup this week against the Giants outside CBs. Look elsewhere unless you’re stacking the Falcons.

Devin Hester
The Falcons seem committed to using Hester on both gadget plays and as a legitimate option in the passing game. With Harry Douglas injured, Hester will continue to carve out a role for himself, and deserves GPP consideration due to what appears to be a sneakily consistent usage.

RB Steven Jackson
The Falcons already own the 3rd-worst team run-blocking grade. They’ve just lost another two starters on their OL. Jackson is only getting 12.5 carries per game, and the Falcons project to be trailing this week. You can do better with your #2 RB.

RB Antone Smith
Antone Smith earns mention here based on his completely ridiculous big-play ability – he has 3 TDs of 38 yards or more, and is averaging 14.7 yards per touch. Despite his game-breaking ability, Smith remains third on the depth chart, and only earns a few touches per game. It just so happens that he converts those touches into big plays at a high rate. His big play ability puts him in high ceiling but extremely low floor GPP territory.

NY Giants

QB ELI MANNING
Eli put on a show in Week 4, passing for 300 yards and 4 TDs – he even added a rushing TD. Hopefully you read the #GrindDown last week and were on board. This is what the Giants offense will be capable of at times this season, especially vs teams with deficient pass rushes. Like the Falcons, for example. It’s hard to believe but Eli’s matchup this week is every bit as good as last week’s, and in some ways even better. With the 3rd-worst team pass-rushing grade, the aforementioned Falcons ‘pass rush’ is basically just a bunch of large guys waiting for the ball to be thrown. They have little hope of slowing down this Giants offense which is executing quickly and crisply right now. Eli’s price doesn’t match his ceiling this week. All aboard.

WR VICTOR CRUZ
Cruz took a few games off to let Larry Donnell become famous, but has now gone for at least 5-107 in two straight weeks. The Falcons actually sport an emerging stud corner in Desmond Trufant, who occasionally kicked into the slot in 2013. Still, even with strong CB play thus far, I can’t overlook how horrendous the Falcons safeties have been, and they’ve just lost one to injury. I feel a salsa dance coming on.

WR REUBEN RANDLE
Randle’s time is coming. He’s seeing consistent targets. He’s seeing consistent targets in the red-zone. He’s clearly having his name called in the huddle. Yet Randle remains lost in the shadow of Larry Donnell. Take advantage of Randle’s inevitable regression and the Falcon’s practice squad defense and fire him up as a sneaky GPP option this week.

TE LARRY ‘LEGEND’ DONNELL
The Legend is reaching epic proportions after last week’s 3 TD scoregasm. Donnell has to be in consideration again this week, as the Falcons safeties have appeared on the wrong end of many highlight reels in recent years when trying to cover opposing TEs. The Falcons LBs are also gross in coverage. Donnell is a top-10 option this week.

RB RASHAD JENNINGS
Rashad Jennings has an appalling price on DK
He is facing the NFL’s most generous defense vs RBs.
He is a must-play this week.
Fade him at your own risk.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	43.5	20.75				-2	43.5	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.7	11	20	2		Offense	15.0	30	32	16
Defense	15.0	30	32	16		Defense	24.7	11	20	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	15	22	12	23		Cleveland Browns	9	31	7	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Austin	20	14	2	115		Wright	30	19	1	176
Hawkins	32	21	0	244		Washington	19	6	0	80
Benjamin	8	4	1	69		Hunter	26	9	0	138
Cameron	8	3	0	70		Walker	32	22	3	317

Quick Grind

•Two bad teams with a low Vegas total… this one could be ugly
•Will this be Bishop Sankey’s breakout game?
•The crowded Browns backfield has a strong matchup and an even stronger O-line

Cleveland Browns

WR ANDREW HAWKINS

If you had Andrew Hawkins in your ‘Browns Target Leader Through 5 Weeks’ office pool, you have to be feeling pretty good right about now. Hawkins has been a consistently excellent full PPR option so far in 2014:

Hawkins performances so far have been Welker-esque. And while the return of TE Jordan Cameron may leech away a few of his targets, Hawkins outstanding separation skills and obnoxious elusiveness ensure he makes the most out of his opportunities. He’s a solid full PPR option.

TE JORDAN CAMERON
Cameron practiced in full all week and should be all systems go for what might be the most boring game of the week. The Titans allow the 9th-most FPPG to TEs and gave up a pair of TDs to Colts TEs last week. Cameron’s talent gives him a high ceiling, but his lack of involvement in the passing game last week was slightly concerning.

RB Ben Tate / Isaiah Crowell / Terrance West
The return of Ben Tate muddies an already muddy Browns backfield. It sounds like Tate will fully reclaim his starting gig. It also sounds like Crowell has earned a share of carries to himself. West rounds out the group as a change-of-pace and third-down back. The full house isn’t great for DFS, as we can’t be certain just how many carries Tate or Crowell will get, or if Crowell will assume the goal-line role. What we do know is that every Browns RB will benefit from running behind the” 5th-best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. They’re also facing a Titans defense allowing the 11th-most FPPG to RBs. The uncertainty in the Browns backfield will no doubt suppress their ownership, so if you feel strongly about Tate receiving 20 carries, or Crowell managing 10 and a goal-line TD, few will benefit along with you.

OTHERS
QB Brian Hoyer is still starting, and still an uninspiring option in DFS. WR Miles Austin is technically the #1 WR but draws a tough matchup outside vs CB Jason McCourty.

Tennessee Titans

TE Delanie Walker
Some offensive players are matchup-proof. Delanie Walker showed last week that he’s quarterback-proof, surviving a week with Charlie Whitehurst at QB and going 5-84-1 vs the Colts. Walker has oddly been one of the best all-around TEs in the NFL this season, and leads the Titans in basically every receiving category. He should have a strong matchup this week against the Browns, but note that even though the Browns allow the 7th-most FPPG to TEs, they haven’t allowed more than 26 yards to a non-Jimmy Graham TE this year.

RB Bishop Sankey
Many a fantasy pundit are predicting this will be the week of Sankey, after comments from Titans coaches suggesting he’d see additional reps, earlier, against the Browns. His value to us this week depends, of course, on just how many reps he gets. Vegas suggests this will be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. I think 15 touches is a reasonable estimate given the likely game script, and 20 carries isn’t out of the question if he gets rolling early. Sankey has the talent and offensive line to do some damage vs a Browns defense that allows the 2nd-most FPPG AND rushing yards to RBs. He is a high upside #2 RB in GPPs this week.

WR Justin Hunter
While he’s done little to have earned a promotion, reports suggest that Justin Hunter may be close to a move to the starting lineup. It’s an encouraging sign, but Hunter still has to produce. Until he does, Hunter remains a high-risk GPP target.

Kendall Wright
It’s sad but Kendall Wright is hardly producing enough to even deserve a mention anymore. He does have an excellent opportunity to have a strong game this week against the abysmal Browns slot corners.

Others
QB Jake Locker is coming off injury but faces a secondary that has been exploited ceaselessly in 2014. No one will be on him this week.

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