NFL Grind Down: Week 6

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-20 03:35:18

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Chicago Bears						Atlanta Falcons
Sun – Flexed to 4:25 PM						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	53.5	25.25				-3	53.5	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.2	16	6	27		Offense	30.2	3	4	7
Defense	30.2	3	4	7		Defense	23.2	16	6	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	19	32	13	3		Chicago Bears	21	12	24	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	37	19	5	188		Jones	57	40	3	552
Jeffery	39	26	2	359		White	33	16	2	213
Holmes	13	7	0	56		Douglas	17	12	1	121
Bennett	43	32	4	312		Toilolo	15	8	1	69

Quick Grind

• Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: TARGET EVERYONE!
• The Falcons Defense allows 32.4 FPPG to RBs… you know what to do
• Squeaky Wheel Alert: Brandon Marshall #TeamNarrative
• Devin Hester REVENGE GAME #TeamNarrative

Since nearly everyone in this game is in play, I’m reworking the table to organize it more effectively

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

Matt Forte was a #GrindDown top RB option last week and supplemented a modest 61 yards rushing by posting one of the best receiving lines of the week: 12 catches, 105 yards, and 1 TD. Truly the engine of the Bears offense, Forte’s receiving contributions are what makes him so elite on full PPR sites like DraftKings, where Forte basically added a top-10 WR line to his score this week. Forte easily leads all RBs in targets and receptions, and is averaging 7.2 receptions per game. This week Forte faces the Falcons, who are allowing an absurd 32.4 FPPG to RBs – almost 5 FPPG more than the 2nd-worst team. The Falcons can’t stop RBs through the ground or through the air, allowing both the 2nd-most rushing yard and the 4th-most receiving yards to RBs. Need I say more? Forte is the clear #1 RB on full PPR sites.

QB Jay Cutler

Another week, another late meltdown by Jay Cutler and the Bears. And another game where Vegas questions the Bears chances, this time despite facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Falcons defense is actually almost too bad, to the point that opposing offenses don’t need to throw to score. So although the Falcons allow the 14th-most FPPG to QBs, they’re also allowing the 2nd-fewest passing TDs per game. Cutler should have success moving the ball against the Falcons young secondary, which ranks as PFF’s 9th-worst coverage unit. And he won’t have to worry about being harassed by pass-rushers as he was vs Carolina, because the Falcons have a whopping 4 sacks as a team so far. (I can think of a few players that have that many sacks by themselves [fun fact: one is actually a Bear]). Cutler will have plenty of time to dissect the Falcons defense. This Falcons defense just puts up so little resistance across the board that I do worry about Forte gobbling up all the fantasy goodness for himself. Keep that risk in mind when rostering Cutler this week. He’s a strong QB play, but the Bears would be foolish not to emphasize the run this week.

WR Brandon Marshall

After another lackluster week (3-44), Brandon Marshall admitted that his initial ankle injury should have sidelined him for multiple weeks. Thanks for the heads up, Brandon. At least it offers some explanation for his poor play. In other news, we have a SQUEAKY WHEEL ALERT for Marshall: HC Marc Trestman commented to reporters that he needed to get Marshall more touches. You know what that means! [insert picture of wheel DOUSED in grease]

If Marshall is healthy like he says he is, and if he is about to get ‘greased’, if you will, then he is locked in as a top WR play. While his ceiling is similar, I would put Marshall just outside this week’s elite tier of DT-Julio-Brown-Jordy.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Alshon has turned it on in the wake of Marshall’s lingering injury, racking up 6-97-1 last week. He has been a savvy pivot from Marshall in DFS recently as a cheaper means of exposure to the high-powered Bears passing attack. Jeffery should tangle with the Falcons talented young outside CBs, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. Trufant demonstrated emerging shutdown traits in 2013, whereas Alford was a bit of a burn victim at times. Neither should be able to contend with Jeffery either downfield or in the red-zone. Jeffery is a top-10 WR and climbing as he continues to steal looks from Marshall.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett was bound to come back to Earth eventually, and did so in Week 5 due both to Jay Cutler’s focus on Matt Forte and the sound coverage of Panthers LBs Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. He’ll be a solid, if somewhat unpredictable option each week with so many mouths to feed. Bennett should run free this week though, as the Falcons LBs are poor in coverage and their safety crew is banged up. He’s likely a fringe top-5 option this week

Atlanta Falcons

QB Matt Ryan

I’m not sure how long Matt Ryan is going to hold up behind this ‘offensive line’. Ryan managed to survive Week 5, but the offense as a whole was constantly disrupted. I would seriously question Ryan’s upside in the face of another strong pass rush. Thankfully, the Bears are a substantial step down in pressure from the Giants – hopefully Ryan will have a little more room to operate this week. If he can get a little time to throw, Ryan should be able to exploit the no-name Bears defense, which sports the 10th-worst coverage rating in the NFL. Vegas certainly believes in the Falcons offense in this one, and you should too. Ryan is a top-5 QB option, albeit with added risk due to the horrible offensive line.

WR Julio Jones

Julio was truly dominant in Week 5, catching 11 of his 16 targets for 105 yards despite the pesky coverage of Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. This week Jones leads the charge against a Bears defense that gives up the 9th-most FPPG to WRs. The Bears will likely send impressive rookie CB Kyle Fuller after Julio. But even as the Bears ‘big’ corner, Fuller gives up a lot of both size (6’3 vs 5’11) and speed to Julio. Expect Falcons OC Dirk Koetter to get the rookie’s head spinning with rub routes, bubble screens, and double-moves. One way or another, Julio will get his, and is a top-3 WR play this week.

WR Roddy White

White has been up and down so far in 2014 and was certainly ‘down’ last week, only managing 2 catches for 26 yards vs the Giants. While White’s usage has definitely been discouraging, let’s use that to our advantage here. White’s ownership will certainly be down given his recent performances, but the projected scoring in this game and the size mismatch vs 5’7 CB Tim Jennings should lead to the high floor we’re accustomed to seeing from White.

Devin Hester

While Hester finished Week 5 with only 2 catches for 16 yards, he was actually a step away from a 21-yard TD. The Falcons remain committed to using Hester on both gadget plays and as a legitimate option in the passing game. And most important: Hester faces his old team. He’s already notched a return TD against his former coach this year – will his former team be next? Hester is a viable punt WR in GPPs due to his big-play potential and versatility.

RB Steven Jackson

Jackson managed 74 total yards and a TD on 18 touches last week, and actually hasn’t looked too bad. He isn’t doing Young Steven Jackson things after contact, but isn’t a Trent Richardson waste of carries either. The problem for us is that Jackson continues to split touches with three other RBs. The Falcons project to be leading in this game, which could lead to extra carries for Jackson , but his upside is capped.

RB Antone Smith

I think I was the only person in the industry to write up Antone Smith last week, BEFORE he ripped off a 74-yard TD vs the Giants. Now Smith’s name is awfully trendy, as we wait to see if he’s earned at least a few extra touches for his electric play. And for the 2nd straight week a Falcons coach has suggested Smith deserved more touches. Will they follow through this time? I certainly hope so. Smith has the raw speed to torch any defense, but it’s usually his sneaky tackle-breaking ability that springs him from the pack. Smith is actually the #1 RB in PFF’s Elusive Rating . Smith can score from anywhere given his jets, tackle breaking, and low center of gravity, so it’ll be interesting to see what the Falcons coaches draw up for him. Smith’s score last week was just a short pass into the flat, and he’s also scored from everything from sweep plays to bread n butter carries off tackle. Just Give. Him. The. Ball. Smith will be a low-floor, immense-ceiling GPP play for contests like the Millionaire Maker. #FreeAntone

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	45	24				3	45	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.6	12	22	18		Offense	19.2	28	26	25
Defense	19.2	28	26	25		Defense	24.6	12	22	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	12	5	16	13		New England Patriots	2	23	1	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	44	31	1	318		Watkins	44	24	2	284
Amendola	8	4	0	23		Woods	33	14	0	156
LaFell	28	11	1	185		Williams	18	8	1	142
Gronkowski	37	19	4	247		Chandler	19	13	0	137

Quick Grind

• Gronk is back
• Fred Jackson makes for a sneaky RB play
• Avoid the Bills passing attack

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

Gronk is back. It was only a matter of time before the big man broke out, and break out he did vs the Bengals, pulling in 6 of his team-high 11 targets for 100 yards and 1 TD. Gronk also played 77% of snaps in Week 5, his highest number of the season. Consider Gronk a top TE option for the remainder of 2014, but let’s dig into his matchup a bit here. The Bills seem like a fairly tough TE matchup on paper, as they allow the 13th-fewest FPPG to TEs. But a closer look shows this ranking is buoyed by several matchups with teams that lack prominent receiving TEs (MIA, HOU, DET). The Bills held those teams’ TEs to an average of 26 yards per game. Against teams with legitimate receiving TEs (CHI, SD), however, the Bills allowed an average of 7-77. The Bills also boast a group of LBs that have not done well in coverage this season. Gronk should have little trouble exploiting them, and is a top-2 TE play this week.

WR Julian Edelman

We knew the Bengals were going to be a tough matchup for Edelman last week, and he predictably struggled to a 5-35 line. More concerning than his performance was the Patriots renewed focus on the TE in the passing game. It also forced Edelman off the field: despite playing in at least 93% of snaps the previous two weeks, Edelman played only 77% in Week 5. This seems to be a deliberate move by the Pats, as Brandon LaFell, by comparison, played 88% of snaps. All of this is pretty concerning for Edelman, as his value on full PPR sites is dependent on him receiving high target volume as the primary option in the passing game. We shouldn’t simply assumed the Pats will fully shift to their 2TE attack based solely on last week, but I would be cautious targeting Edelman until we see more.

TE Tim Wright

Wright finally made the Pats look smart for trading for him earlier in the season, as the converted WR racked up 5-85-1. I loved how Wright was used last week, but am a little concerned with how little he was used – playing on just 19 snaps. Wright’s low snap count is a concern for his consistency in DFS, and the Pats love to employ drastically different game plans from week to week, so be cautious plugging him into your lineups based off of his performance in Week 5. We can take some solace in the fact that when Wright is on the field, he’ll most likely be running a pass route, and hell most likely be one of Brady’s secondary reads on the play; it should help him produce despite low overall snap counts. But until we see some consistency in Wright’s usage, he’s best served as a GPP play.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen had an excellent Week 5 running the ball with limited carries, going 9-90. He also tacked on 3 catches for 18 yards, but there was little need for his receiving prowess in the Pats easy win. This week might be different. The Bills have been especially stout against the run in 2014, allowing the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs. This is a detriment to Stevan Ridley more than Vereen, suggesting to me that the Pats might look to exploit coverage mismatches instead of pounding against a strong defense. The Patriots will already be terrorizing the Bills poor coverage LBs with Gronk, and could further wear them out and stretch the defense with the versatile Vereen. It’s risky, since we rarely know which approach the Pats will use in a given week, but Vereen makes more sense to me than Ridley here.

RB Stevan Ridley

The Patriots clearly identified weaknesses in what appeared a difficult rushing matchup on paper last week vs the Bengals, and Stevan Ridley was the DFS beneficiary; Ridley battered the Bengals for 27-113-1. It was Ridley’s second 25+ carry game of 2014. This is an important point, because although the Pats RB volume distribution is difficult to predict, when Ridley gets fed, he really gets fed. I think he’s more likely to see 15-18 carries this week, and the matchup suggests he won’t find much success with any carries he does get. The Bills allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs. I would much prefer Vereen to Ridley this week.

Others
Brady had his first solid outing of 2014 last week and will have a promising outlook if the Pats stick to their 2TE attack, but was still shaky throwing deep.

Buffalo Bills

RB CJ Spiller & Fred Jackson

Let’s review the breakdown of the Bills RB duo: “If the Bills RBs could fuse together and form one Super-Bill RB, we’d be a lot happier. Unfortunately the Bills employ a pseudo-50/50 split between CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, with game flow tipping the volume scale toward one or the other. When the Bills are rolling, Spiller should rack up more carries; but when they get stomped, Jackson sees more work as the passing specialist”

Last week I warned against relying on the Bills RBs vs a tough Lions run defense. CJ Spiller was a complete flop, rushing for just 7 yards on 9 carries. Fred Jackson, however, supplemented his own modest rushing total (50 yards) with an excellent 12.8 full PPR points through the air (7 catches, 58 yards). This is the high-floor FJax we’ve been waiting to see. His patience and vision ensure he maximizes each touch, despite physical limitations. It’s not sexy, but it’s sneaky valuable for us in DFS. Both Bills RBs are acceptable plays against a Patriots run defense that is just 2 weeks removed from allowing nearly 200 yards to Chiefs RBs in Week 4. The Pats now allow the 10th-most FPPG to RBs, and a healthy 5.6 receptions per game to RBs as well. It sets up favorably for Fred Jackson, who benefits from both the rushing and receiving matchup. He is a solid value RB this week, whereas Spiller is a GPP play who is surrounded by several RBs with both a higher floor and/or similar ceiling.

WR Sammy Watkins

It looks like the QB change will indeed be positive for Watkins, as Orton peppered him with 12 targets in Week 5; Watkins converted the stesdy supply into 7 catches for 87 yards. Keep Watkins intact value in mind going forward, but consider avoiding him this week against the coverage of Darelle Revis. He’s an extremely risky GPP play

Others

Kyle Orton had an acceptable debut and cracked 300 yards passing, but is a risky play vs PFFs 6th-best coverage unit.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2